Why F1 cars are only at the limit 3.1% of the time

How often do you see a Formula 1 car on the limit in modern grand prix racing? It's a difficult question to answer, because the limit varies according to conditions, fuel load, tyres and myriad other factors. But in its simplest form, it's a car lapping at close to its optimum lap time.

F1 changed dramatically at the start of the decade with the refuelling ban, then the introduction of high-degradation Pirelli tyres a year later. The 2010 Bahrain Grand Prix, the first of this latest no-fuel-stops era, was met by a complaining chorus both inside and outside the F1 paddock about 'the show' that soon became a steady drumbeat, a cacophonous background noise that is the manifestation of F1's existential crisis that can't be tuned out.

Not that F1 should disregard such concerns entirely, rather it must cut through the noise of the eternally dissatisfied on social media, those who would find a way to deride even the most spectacular of F1 races, and get to the bottom of the problem. That usually means focusing on overtaking - listening to complaints about either the shortage or the over-abundance of it - but this blocks out another critical factor that is key to the spectacle.

This brings us to cars on the limit. There are different manifestations of a car on the limit, although many hark back to the days of Ronnie Peterson sliding his Lotus through the old, fast Woodcote at Silverstone. It makes for spectacular images, but he was using crossply tyres lending themselves to this style. You can't drive a grand prix car like that today, and not only because of the downforce.

But whatever form this takes visually, the look of a grand prix car on the limit is best described as 'alive'. It should look nimble, responsive and with a savage elegance as the driver brakes impossibly late, turns in unfeasibly sharply and carries superhuman speed to the apex while picking up the throttle dangerously early. That's what an F1 car looks like on the edge.

Watching an F1 practice session today can be frustrating, with so many push laps bookended by ones on which drivers chug round looking after tyre temperatures and charging/saving the engine package. And in the race, there are endless complaints about drivers not pushing, with last year's Mexican Grand Prix a particularly painful example of a tyre-dominated race. Listening to the leading drivers' radio messages during that event revealed that the vast majority were regarding looking after the tyres and getting condition updates.

With such limitations, how often will you therefore see a car on the limit, going seriously fast, during a grand prix weekend? It's not a straightforward question to answer, but if you set aside what might be termed the relative limit - such as lapping near the minimum lap time achievable with a heavy fuel load - and focus on how often you see a car near its fastest you can answer this question.

Using Autosport's comprehensive FORIX database, it's possible to take every lap through practice, qualifying and the race for every driver and calculate what percentage of the time they are lapping within a certain margin of their best lap. To equalise all circuits, percentages are used to calculate this.

Using each driver's fastest individual lap of a session, we can therefore calculate figures across the whole season that tell us how much of the time we see a driver lapping close to their fastest overall lap of the whole weekend.

During 2018, you'd have seen 1683 laps set by drivers within 1% of their quickest of the weekend, which equates to 0.8 seconds. That is a grand total, on average, of four laps within that range per driver, per weekend - 3.1% of their laps.

Today's combination of tyres, power units and fuel limits means that it can be objectively stated that you see F1 cars lapping near their limit a lot less often than you did 10 seasons ago

This figure hasn't dropped massively over 10 seasons, as in 2009 there were 2564 such laps - 5.4% of the time. But as that's the same number of cars over 17 races, it's an average of 7.5 laps per driver within 1% of their quickest. So, it's not far off twice what you see today.

But 1% is a very narrow window, especially given the many factors that impact pace. But look more deeply into the figures and it paints a more alarming picture.

Expand the figure to 5% - a generous four seconds on a hypothetical 1m20s lap - and in 2018 just 16.5% of laps are within that margin of a driver's outright fastest. That compares to 50.4% back in '09. That means 9158 laps at that pace today versus 23,986 a decade earlier - and with four fewer races.

That's an average of 70.5% per driver, per weekend in 2009 versus 21.8%. This is a huge difference and means for the spectator looking on trackside or watching on television, you are seeing cars near the ultimate limit far less often.

The table below shows data for each season from 2007 onwards, with the percentage of laps set by each driver within 1-10%.

Laps with percentage of driver's fastest of event

The shift from 2007-09, when refuelling was permitted, to '10 and then the introduction of the Pirelli tyres, matches the trend for a reduction in quick laps. The arrival of the V6 turbo hybrid engines in '14 compounded this and adds up to fans seeing the cars lapping near their ultimate pace with far less frequency.

This, of course, says nothing about relative limit. Each 10kg of fuel a car carries equates to 0.3-0.4s a lap - it varies according to circuit configuration - so there will be times when a car is lapping closer to its ultimate pace in that moment.

To this we have to add one significant caveat; one of the big advantages of the refuelling ban was the return of proper qualifying, with drivers running in Q3 on very low fuel. So, in these figures, during the spell from 2007-09 it was rare for a driver to produce a lap time that reflected such low-fuel pure qualifying trim even though they could run in such trim before Q3. It's also fair to say that at least today there is an all-out qualifying session that the fuelling rules didn't allow to play out in the same way.

But today's combination of tyres that must be protected, power units that must be charged and managed, and fuel limits that must be respected means that you can objectively state that you see F1 cars lapping near their limit a lot less often than you did 10 seasons ago. What's more, in most practice sessions there's no incentive to lap especially quickly given the focus on race prep and management.

That doesn't mean F1 was automatically better in that era. While you did see cars lapping faster, and in races a part of this was related to the lighter fuel loads permissible when refuelling was allowed, the strategic variation wasn't as dramatic as it is sometimes made out.

Drivers enjoyed this era because they were able to push hard, more often, but while this satisfied them it also led to plenty of grumbling from those watching about things being uneventful. But at least fans got to see the cars, relatively speaking, lapping closer to their limit more often.

On top of that, the look of an F1 car at or near the limit has changed. As well as the other factors already mentioned, weight is also a contributing factor. This season, F1 cars will be 23% heavier than they were in 2009 based on minimum weight regulations - that's 743kg compared to 605kg.

The reasons for the weight gain are legitimate - more complex power units and stronger crash structures on top of myriad other areas where weight has accumulated, such as wider tyres. Connected to this, the wheelbase of the average F1 car is also longer.

There is a vital need to place a spectacular car front and centre to those watching that looks as fast as it is, and more often

This adds up to cars that look 'lazier' on track. This is visible both trackside and on television, and means that the cars just don't look as spectacular and lively as they once did, lacking that razor-sharp pointiness.

It's unfortunate, because today's grand prix cars are the quickest in history in terms of lap time. The drivers are incredibly skillful, and an F1 car on a hot lap is still spectacular to behold, a fusion of biology and technology that translates into poetry in motion on track.

The changes made in 2017, while bad for the racing, made the cars look meaner, faster and more dramatic on track. But other factors conspire to hide the wow factor of today's machines under a bushel. To come back to that original number, you only see each car lap within 0.8s of their fastest on the average circuit four times in a weekend - and within four seconds of that limit around 22 times.

To break things down further, it's also interesting to look at how often cars are circulating close to their fastest individual lap in each session, be it FP1, FP2, FP3, qualifying or the race.

In FP1, for example, cars are only lapping within 5% of their fastest single lap 11.3% of the time. And while the figures are far higher in the race - 47.6% of the time drivers lap within 1% of their fastest lap - the management involved means that lap time is well off the ultimate pace.

The scarcity of laps at, or near, the limit is something that needs to be considered as part of the much-vaunted 2021 regulation change. There's a lot of positive work being done, detailed research and analysis and ideas being pursued that could genuinely improve matters. But it's essential that a way is found for cars to spend a little more time closer to the edge.

Cars will remain relatively heavy, but it's essential that the visual dynamics are part of the equation. These cars are seriously fast, they not only need to look it in the way they respond on track, but also be allowed to lap near their potential more regularly.

That doesn't mean reducing variables that make for good racing or a taking backward-looking shift to what F1 was a decade ago. But there is a vital need to place front and centre a spectacular car that to those watching - be they the most casual or the hardcore - looks as fast as it is, and more often.

Data compiled by Joao Paulo Cunha of FORIX