Why Bottas and F1 should fear 'struggling' Hamilton

Amid the monotony of Mercedes domination, clutching at straws in the search for excitement becomes more common in Formula 1. Will the Lewis Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas fight descend into civil war? Did you see how disingenuously Hamilton congratulated Bottas on his pole in Spain? Are they going to start hating each other now - will 'Bottas 2.0' play mind games like Nico Rosberg?

The answer to such questions is probably 'no', as much as this sort of hyperbole would help fuel intrigue in F1 2019. It's a two-horse race, and everyone (maybe not Mercedes) would prefer more cars and drivers to be involved.

The silver lining is there is genuine competition between Hamilton and Bottas, but the worrying thing is Hamilton has emerged from the first five races on top - and all signs point to him raising the bar higher in the coming weeks.

In qualifying for the Spanish Grand Prix, Bottas inflicted Hamilton's heaviest 'real' qualifying defeat within Mercedes since 2016. The 0.634-second margin over Hamilton is the furthest the five-time world champion has been behind a team-mate since his struggles in Singapore that year.

That completed a hat-trick of pole positions for Bottas, who is beating Hamilton at his own game at the start of the season. In the past, Hamilton's ferocious one-lap pace - he has the all-time record for poles, with 84 - has been a key weapon. Now, though, he looks vulnerable in qualifying. Since Mercedes' era of domination began five years ago, Hamilton has never suffered a one-lap defeat like the one Bottas inflicted in Spain without mitigating circumstances.

But, come Sunday night, Hamilton was again the one celebrating. For the second time in three races, he had turned pole for Bottas into victory for himself. Had he been more forceful at the start in Azerbaijan, perhaps Hamilton would have overturned every qualifying deficit. But no matter: he's still back on top of the championship. It was an ominous response.

Bottas has a lot of pressure on his shoulders. He knew he needed to respond this year to keep his Mercedes seat in 2020 after a very disappointing end to '18. That has happened in the first few races. However, his strong start has raised expectations, which he must now meet. Coupled with that is the external pressure on him to give us something to get excited about this year. If he folds, and Mercedes continues to have an advantage over Ferrari, Hamilton could effectively have this championship wrapped up by autumn.

The obvious positive for Bottas is his superb qualifying run, and that has been supplemented by picking up second-place finishes when he has not been on Hamilton's level. This has combined to lift Bottas's all-round game to, at the moment, championship-challenging status. At least across the first few races.

Hamilton, somewhat cheekily, has suggested that one reason for this is the engineering switch-up inside Mercedes this year. Chiefly, following the departure of Tony Ross to Mercedes' Formula E programme, that is Hamilton's old performance engineer Riccardo Musconi becoming Bottas's race engineer.

"I'll go and talk to different departments and try to create as much data as possible so I can apply it better in the next race. Friday and Saturday have not been great days for me, so the goal is to improve on that" Lewis Hamilton

Joking that "apart from the beard" he has noticed Bottas looking a "a little bit more focused" than before, Hamilton reckoned there are "things my engineer has obviously encouraged him to do, things that I was doing, settings he's doing now" that have moved Bottas "in the right direction".

"Every year he [Bottas] starts out strong," says Hamilton. "His goal will be to extend that throughout the year. It's not been a surprise.

"This year he has my number two engineer for the last six years. He's been promoted to head engineer for him. That will be a nice helping hand and he's learning a lot from that. That's to be expected, the little bit of a step that he's taken.

"I got a new engineer, we're working really well together, but it takes time to build relationships with people and continue to grow. Whatever element you take away initially it's not as strong as something you've built over six years. So we're building back to being stronger and trumping that."

This is where things get ominous for Bottas, who blamed the start that cost him victory (and the points lead) in Spain on weird clutch behaviour that Mercedes has since put down simply to low grip.

Hamilton has not been completely happy with the "feeling" in his car, yet he still leads the championship. It appears that whatever ill-feeling Hamilton has is limiting him over one lap. He has won three races despite the new thinner-gauge Pirelli tyres causing massive headaches for every other team on the grid, so there is evidently not something fundamentally wrong in how Hamilton uses them over a stint.

One could even go so far as suggesting Hamilton is making the difference in race trim. Bottas is happier and more potent over one lap, but Hamilton is able to overturn that over a grand prix distance.

Beyond Monaco and Canada, where Bottas had the upper-hand in 2018, the calendar features rear-limited tracks that favour Hamilton, plus warmer temperatures that put an emphasis on tyre management

"The cars are pretty much set the same, so that's how I drive the car," Hamilton says. "I drive the tyres slightly differently in the race, and often I'm able to eke them out a little bit longer. That currently is still a benefit and advantage.

"The car is obviously great, but I've generally struggled since Australia, had similar kinds of problems since Australia. I was only a tenth ahead. When I get things right, it should be different to that.

"Valtteri has settled nicely into the car, he's quite happy. There are definitely areas I'll continue to focus on at the factory and I'll be dialling in to try to really understand. Ultimately I'll go round and talk to different departments, engineer-wise, and try to create as much data and information as possible so I can apply it better in the next race.

"Friday and Saturday have not been great days for me, so the goal is to improve on that. The races have been really strong, performance-wise, and purely delivering on Sunday, I've been really happy."

If Hamilton can feel that way after a proper cat-and-mouse game over the opening five races - which included China and Azerbaijan, where he has not looked particularly settled at either venue in recent years - then that sends a clear warning of what to expect when things start to come together.

Bottas's qualifying form bodes well for Monaco, where he was excellent in 2017 and Hamilton struggled by comparison. It might be vital for his chances. If Hamilton unlocks greater one-lap speed, this championship could start to get away from his team-mate quite quickly.

Beyond Monaco and Canada, where Bottas had the upper-hand in 2018, the F1 calendar features rear-limited circuits that favour Hamilton, and warmer temperatures that put an emphasis on tyre management.

"We're understanding the car more and more," says Hamilton. "Over time we'll be able to put it in a better position than it has been in terms of how it drives, how we're able to look after the tyres with it over the next races.

"Then we're coming into hotter races, which I'm excited about, because then it gets really hard."

Though Hamilton says, like the rest of us, he would much prefer a more inclusive title battle, he will not relent just because the 2019 title fight is becoming an internal affair.

Fighting with Rosberg took him to new heights after 2016, and played a key role in how comprehensively he defeated Sebastian Vettel over the past two years. He knows, following the painful experience of '16, when he lost the title because of reliability, that every single point matters.

"We only have a small amount of engines through the year, reliability could be an issue, anything could happen at any point, so you're super-focussed on trying to make sure you deliver," says Hamilton. "My personal feeling is that I prefer it when they are in the mix with us. I prefer the races, for example Bahrain, where Ferrari were on the front row. I love that.

"The last couple of years, that's what we've had, and from a driver's point of view and a team's point of view, it's much better when you're competing with another team. When it becomes more internal, it's less exciting, I would say. But it's still massively challenging for the drivers.

"We still have to deliver. It's not a case of just rocking up and going out."

When Hamilton was struggling in early 2018, it was visible. The worst we have seen of him this year was in Spain where, after qualifying, he was quite sullen and very short with his responses. He looked and sounded like a man who was frustrated to see a clear weakness - qualifying - but lacking a way to solve it.

History suggests Hamilton will find the answer sooner rather than later. Doing the job early on while things are tricky before really kicking on is becoming a powerful trait of Hamilton's. It has happened over the past two seasons.

Last year, Hamilton scored more points in a season than ever before. He'd bagged 95 of those 408 points after the first five races and his tally at the end of the year would have been enough to win any championship since the points system changed for 2010.

After five races this year, he has 112 points. So Hamilton's almost a full second-place finish better off than he was 12 months ago. And he seems to have less of a threat to his chances on his off-days.

That is all bad news for Bottas, whose only option is to double-down on his attempts to match Hamilton in race trim. When Rosberg was able to defeat Hamilton in 2016, it was through a combination of bad luck for the latter, Rosberg's mind games and Hamilton's own weaknesses.

Hamilton is leaving less on the table than ever, and is adamant he and Bottas have too much respect for one another for the relationship to deteriorate like it did with Rosberg. Even if Bottas wanted to delve into such dark arts, the suggestion is Hamilton could handle it.

"It's three years later, so I've grown a lot since then," says Hamilton. "I'm a much stronger person, standalone outside the car, as well as inside the car, than I was back then.

"I'm much better at knowing how to manage things, my relationships, and understanding of how I need to work with people. It's far greater and I'm a much better team player than I've ever been in my career.

"I don't have any doubt in my ability and what I need to do and how I can improve. So I'm down for whatever challenge I'm going to have. Whoever is going to challenge me I'm excited by that and encouraged by that. If I don't do a good enough job I just have to work harder next time."

Right now, the challenge is defeating Bottas. The job Hamilton is not doing well enough is qualifying. If Hamilton addresses that, he should see off this latest threat.