Jon Noble: Why Binotto’s Hamilton dismissal is actually a compliment

Ferrari’s capture of Lewis Hamilton for 2025 was one of the biggest coups that the Prancing Horse has pulled off in years. It pretty much caught the world by surprise when news of it first erupted, and it looks set to be one of the most fascinating and hyped driver/team swaps we have had for a very long time.

While there have been some isolated voices questioning the wisdom of Hamilton moving out of his comfort zone to the hotbed of Italy’s most famous racing team, they are definitely in the minority compared to those who are excited by what is on the horizon.

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So, it was fascinating this week to hear former Ferrari team principal Mattia Binotto offer his opinion on Hamilton’s move – and make clear that if he had still been boss, then there would have been no deal done. In an interview with Corriere della Sera, asked if he would have signed Hamilton, Binotto did not give the answer that many would have expected.

"No,” he said. “But he [Hamilton] did very well to go to Ferrari.

“I would not have taken Lewis because Ferrari had focused on other drivers. And if the talent is [Charles] Leclerc, then he is the one who in some ways I believe should be accompanied to the objective.”

The message is clear: Binotto’s preference would have been to have a line-up that invested in Leclerc and revolved around him being the driver that was given all the backing needed to become world champion.

Hamilton and Leclerc will team up at Ferrari, but Binotto has questioned the move

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

That viewpoint is fascinating because it cuts to the chase in terms of the hard balancing act that teams face when it comes to choosing the relative strengths of their two drivers. Some outfits (such as McLaren and Mercedes now) are clearly focused on having two completely equal number ones.

That choice is fuelled by the idea that the pair will push each other on to new heights, will ensure that the most is extracted from the car, and if one of them is below par on a race weekend, then the other should be there to pick up the pieces.

This approach has its difficulties when it comes to managing the stress points, but it is by far the best route for maximising constructors’ championship potential. That has been proved this year with McLaren now in the lead of the teams’ battle thanks to both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri’s contributions, despite Red Bull’s Max Verstappen still holding a clear advantage in the drivers’ standings.

The message is clear: Binotto’s preference would have been to have a line-up that invested in Leclerc and revolved around him being the driver that was given all the backing needed to become world champion

But having two number one drivers is not all upside, as it can make winning a drivers’ championship more complicated. 

It can leave a team facing all-out-war between its two drivers if they are alone fighting for the championship (think Ayrton Senna and Alain Prost at McLaren in the late 1980s), or it can compromise the fight for the crown if the pair end up taking points off each other (think how Alain Prost came through the middle to snatch the 1986 crown from fighting Williams duo Nigel Mansell and Nelson Piquet).

We have seen hints of the latter situation this year as McLaren has aimed to treat both Norris and Piastri as fairly as possible – but has equally been powerless to see them not spread the results around among themselves. It does not take much deep analysis to work out how different the points tally would have been if Norris had not been up against such a strong team-mate this year.

At the moment, Norris is heading into the United States Grand Prix 52 points behind Verstappen in the standings. Were Norris to be credited with the best car result McLaren achieved at each weekend, then he would be 10 points in front instead.

Binotto believes Leclerc should be being supported towards a title

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

The above statement has the obvious caveat that, with a slower team-mate Norris, would perhaps not be pushed as much, so potentially would not have delivered as good a result on each occasion. It also relies on him existing in a perfect world where everything went his way. Reality is often different.

The scenario of a drivers’ championship hopes being compromised by a team having two clear number ones is why some outfits much prefer a clearer number one, number two scenario (even if it not explicit that the second driver is only there for a support role).

Sometimes the choice of team leader comes without outside intervention, with the star driver simply being naturally faster – so even if both drivers go into the race weekend with equal treatment and the same equipment, the direction of travel towards the end result is going to be pretty obvious.

This is the scenario that Red Bull has often had; with its clear superstar (be it Sebastian Vettel or Verstappen) in place and then it not being unhappy if his team-mate is a little bit behind – as long as they are quick enough to pick up the pieces and follow the other car home to help in both championships.

But the danger of this approach is what Red Bull is facing this year in that, while there were no complaints about Sergio Perez coming home second-best last year when the RB20 was clearly head and shoulders above the opposition, its constructors’ hopes are now weakened because it has a proper fight on its hands and the Mexican is struggling.

This is exactly why Red Bull is facing a challenge to understand about how best to approach things for 2025 if Perez does not up his game between now and the end of the year.

“We desperately need answers,” Horner told me recently about the uncertainty over its line-up for next year. “I think when you look at our opponents, Ferrari will be strong next year, with Hamilton and Leclerc. Plus, McLaren with Norris and Piastri is a strong line-up. We need to make sure that with both of our drivers, that there's not a big gap between them because you can't afford to have that.”

The method Binotto suggested has been both a good and bad thing for Red Bull in its recent history

Photo by: Lionel Ng / Motorsport Images

From Binotto’s perspective on Hamilton, it is clear his ideal would have been to go down the preferred team leader route than the equal number ones approach.

For in suggesting that the squad should have, having invested so much in Leclerc, seen things through to give him the clear route to the title, the inference is very much than the Monegasque is going to have a fight on his hands when it comes to the drivers’ crown.

And that says as much as you need to know about the high hopes expected of Hamilton next year, even from those sceptical of it being the right thing.

Will Binotto's concern become a reality for Ferrari?

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images