How the F1 driver market situation sits for each team with 2025 openings

There’s no chance of Formula 1 heading into driver transfer dullness for next season. In 2024, for the first time ever, the same drivers that completed the previous campaign lined up in the same seats for the season opener. For 2025, we already know that won’t happen.

Lewis Hamilton’s debut in Ferrari red tops the bill, but there is now set to be significant switching elsewhere too, with 11 other drivers facing an expiry of their current deals at the end of 2024. Add in the shock instability at Red Bull and the very real possibility that Max Verstappen could leave before his contract expires in 2028, and the 2025 silly season is instead seriously interesting. Thanks to Hamilton’s move, it’s unfurling at a surprisingly early stage too.

“The driver market has exploded in April,” Red Bull motorsport advisor Helmut Marko said at this month’s Japanese Grand Prix. “And normally no one talks in April…”

Here then, with many more twists still expected, is how things stand at each squad with openings, plus how their individual needs thread through the pictures for the many drivers seeking settled F1 futures.

Red Bull: Options aplenty, but uncertainty abounds

Uncertainty over Red Bull's lead driver and its team principal has not gone away

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

F1 is now two rounds on from the Saudi Arabian GP, where the tantalising possibility of Verstappen dramatically walking out on the team post-2024 reached a particular fever pitch. The intense focus on Red Bull’s management war in the aftermath of the scrutiny into Christian Horner’s behaviour – and how that extends into Verstappen’s future – has since cooled. But this is largely down to the two subsequent rounds being flyaway events, where news naturally filters out less, with many paddock regulars (such as Verstappen’s father, Jos) absent.

The background chat Autosport heard at Suzuka suggests that this is merely the calm between storms, which could yet deliver a shock Red Bull driver change. After all, the outcomes of the FIA probe into the Horner situation and the appeal against Red Bull clearing him are yet to be heard. Simply put, the potential for major upheaval at Red Bull remains as possible as it was in Jeddah.

Yet it’s also clear that Red Bull is still Verstappen’s best chance of winning the 2025 title given the RB20’s pedigree. Horner appeared more confident across the board in Japan, but complicating any discussion of Verstappen’s future is the potential for the 2026 rule changes to massively change the pecking order. If the Dutchman, his father, and manager Raymond Vermeulen see a chance to switch to a clearly better prospect for the early years of F1’s next design cycle, with Red Bull’s Powertrains division still being built up, expect ruthlessness to follow.

In the words of Marko, the team will “wait and see” on its final 2025 line-up, and “only then make the best choice later on”. But Red Bull is engaging in talks with all available parties

The future of Red Bull’s other seat was always going to be a major 2024 talking point. Sergio Perez has been comparatively poor since joining in 2021, and Red Bull is obviously aware that could be a liability should another team finally pose a regular threat. After all, it knows that his inability to match Valtteri Bottas’s 2021 points haul for Mercedes cost a lucrative constructors’ title in that famous season. But, so far, Perez is doing exactly what the team demands in 2024.

This is to back up Verstappen, which he has done with three second places from the team’s three wins to this point. The glaring factor in that run is how Red Bull lost in Australia after Verstappen’s freak brake issue. Perez’s race run was hampered considerably by damage, but that he’d qualified third and then lost three more grid positions for impeding exposed him to a problem while recovering in the pack.

So, although Horner said in Japan that Perez “has the priority” to continue at a team where he’s popular, he also insisted that the Mexican “needs to just keep doing what he’s doing” to earn a third Red Bull contract. Marko even quipped at the Japanese GP that Perez’s recent improvements could be because “next year’s contracts are at stake”. And, although bluntly put, there is logic in such a point. “It is going to be a few more races yet before we start to think about next year,” Horner added.

Sainz is a free agent next year, but Red Bull wants to wait before deciding whether to keep Perez

Photo by: Mark Sutton

This backs up Marko’s bluster that, although he finds the early start to the driver market haggling “ridiculous” this year, both sides of the Red Bull management war feel “we won’t jump into this game ourselves”. In the words of Marko, the team will “wait and see” on its final 2025 line-up, and “only then make the best choice later on”.

But Red Bull is engaging in talks with all available parties, and the headline discussions are taking place with the only other race winner so far in 2024: Carlos Sainz. The Spaniard has known since mid-January that he’ll be leaving Ferrari at the end of this year despite a fruitful stint in red. And he’s essentially been flawless so far, with silverware accrued either side of his appendectomy, including that Melbourne win.

Marko is openly courting Sainz and his camp – with much made of their friendly entry into the Suzuka paddock ahead of practice getting under way. It is also understood that a further meeting took place over the Japanese event and, given how well Sainz has fared against Charles Leclerc at Ferrari since 2021, few would deny that he’s a clear cut above Perez.

Any Red Bull move for Sainz is complicated by his history with Verstappen. Marko has been open in outlining the tensions that existed between the two camps nearly a decade ago. And yet, if Red Bull’s desire to wait – which is something the Sainz camp doesn’t want to happen – means it misses out on his services, and Perez’s form goes off the boil, it might be forced into looking elsewhere, as was its original plan heading into 2024 concerning its RB stable.

As well as its internal options, there had been the potential for a blockbuster choice elsewhere regarding Fernando Alonso, but that avenue has now closed.

Mercedes: Set to wait for its next star

The prospect of Verstappen joining Russell appears a slim one

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

The move of moves for 2025 – trumping even Hamilton’s guaranteed Ferrari transfer – would be if Verstappen ends up leaving Red Bull for Mercedes. Following the Australian GP, Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff said that finally signing Verstappen after missing out on his services for 2015 is “a kind of a relationship that needs to happen at a certain stage, but we don’t know when”.

The obvious problem is that Verstappen is currently tied to Red Bull, and would only be likely to leave should something massive happen to him or his allies there – or if its engine production runs into major difficulty. So, Wolff’s words could be interpreted as a tactic to keep pressure on destabilising Red Bull and Horner, as well as distract from Mercedes’ poor start to 2024.

In fact, it’s a further interpretation of Wolff’s comments on his team’s future driver line-up made at Suzuka that holds far more weight. This is Wolff’s statement that “we haven’t taken the decision yet and it’s not something that we plan to do in the next few weeks”.

Antonelli has made an underwhelming start to the 2024 F2 campaign. But the latest thinking about his F1 future is that this actually helps Mercedes

He added: “It’s much too early for us to commit to a driver, whether very young or whether very experienced – I don’t want to say old – [when] the next few months will give us more clues.”

Wolff was actually responding to a question regarding the possibility of Mercedes signing Sebastian Vettel back from retirement. Such talk helps all parties – Vettel has an energy drink he wants to promote, and then there are the discussions over what follows his Porsche Hypercar test – but Autosport understands that Vettel is not a major part of Mercedes’ current 2025 thinking.

Yet such chat was enough to keep the news churn focused elsewhere, and that actually helped Mercedes with what is understood to be its preferred option: to rapidly promote Formula 2 driver, and Mercedes junior, Andrea Kimi Antonelli to race alongside George Russell in F1.

Mercedes protege Andrea Kimi Antonelli is rated highly by Wolff as a potential generational talent

Photo by: Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images

It’s clear from Wolff’s other comments regarding how “some of the really good guys are about to sign for some of the other teams” that he’s willing to allow drivers such as Sainz or Alonso to commit elsewhere, and wait to see what develops with Antonelli. Also, he and his family have a close personal bond with the Italian, and there’s a clear desire to avoid missing a potential generational talent, as Antonelli is being branded, after what happened with Verstappen a decade ago.

Antonelli has made an underwhelming start to the 2024 F2 campaign. But the latest thinking about his F1 future is that this actually helps Mercedes. It can now monitor how he rises to the pressure of expectation, and removes the possibility of complacency.

Waiting also gives Mercedes a certain amount of power in the driver market. That’s even if it ultimately decides it wants to replicate Russell’s apprenticeship and place Antonelli at Williams for his rookie F1 running. It simply remains in the game and can pick up what may be left, even if the field is slimmer than it is now.

Williams is said to be open to such a development regarding Antonelli, where naturally there would be the expectation of a deal to be made with Mercedes – say, a discount on engine supply for the necessary years.

The clearest sign of what Mercedes is prepared to do can be seen in how last year Hamilton was only offered a 1+1 deal that covered 2025, with the possibility of an Antonelli promotion part of Wolff’s decision there.

Aston Martin: Happy to continue the status quo

For as long as his father owns Aston Martin, Lance Stroll's future appears secure while Alonso is locked in

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Obviously, there is no expectation of Aston Martin dumping Lance Stroll given his father owns the team – even among his continued poor performances. And while Alonso switching to Red Bull would have also been right up there in the excitement stakes, if Verstappen headed to Mercedes alongside Hamilton’s Ferrari move, his announcement last Thursday of signing a multi-year extension (at least to the end of 2026) shuts such speculation down.

Sources have suggested that talks between Alonso’s manager – Flavio Briatore – and Red Bull did indeed take place. But he would need the market to open in his favour for such a wave to start forming.

Last week, Alonso made it clear that “all the other conversations were just light and never came to any other conclusions, maybe more time was needed [for other teams, such as Red Bull and Mercedes]”, and how Aston making him feel “the most wanted” was what really drove his decision.

Mercedes was distinctly unimpressed with his suggestion that an engine issue was a factor in his late-race tactics that ended with Russell crashing out. But in Japan, Alonso seemed just as cool on Mercedes

At Suzuka, where sources suggested that an Aston renewal had become his most likely option, any chance of Alonso heading towards Mercedes seemed near-dead anyway given what had occurred in Melbourne. There, the manufacturer was left distinctly unimpressed with his suggestion that an engine issue was a factor in his late-race tactics that ended with Russell crashing out. But in Japan, Alonso seemed just as cool on Mercedes anyway.

“Mercedes is behind us, so it doesn’t feel that attractive,” he joked to Sky Sports F1 when discussing how it felt ending what he declared was yet another of his best ever F1 drives 44 seconds behind race winner Verstappen.

Sainz had also a been real possible candidate for Aston, since what makes him appealing to Red Bull was the same for this team too.

Alpine: Current predicament doesn’t help

It seems as though Alpine's drivers have little chance of a seat elsewhere

Photo by: Alpine

At Alpine, both Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly are out of contract at the end of 2024, just as the team is in a dire situation with the A524 being slow and overweight. Now, there are also suggestions that its Renault parent company may consider offers to sell the squad – something the Alpine team hotly refutes.

Alpine’s predicament is not one that would likely entice drivers from elsewhere, but it’s also hard to see where its current line-up might move to. Ocon’s career is still managed by Mercedes – indeed, he still calls himself part of the junior programme – but there appears to be little chance of him heading back to that fold unless he is willing to keep Antonelli’s seat warm (with the caveat that strong results against Russell could impact the careers of both established drivers).

But Ocon is in a strong position at Alpine. He has raced there since 2020, showing well against Alonso during their time as team-mates, taking the team’s most recent victory, and leading Gasly in the only place Alpine can really shine so far in 2024, which is qualifying. At the same time, his jubilant team radio celebrations over his Australia and Japan Q1 escapes are understood to have not gone down universally well within the Enstone squad.

Gasly has made a decent start to his time at Alpine. As a grand prix winner he’s a candidate for any open seat, but for now surely lacks the momentum required to force a way into any of the available high-profile positions, especially with so many safe bets also available.

Williams: Set to do deals with bigger teams?

It's difficult to see Sargeant being kept on for 2025 after a disappointing start to his second season at Williams

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

The main reason why we didn’t include Alex Albon in our assessment of Red Bull’s 2025 driver requirements is Williams’s insistence that it has the former Red Bull racer locked down, contract-wise, for next year. “Alex has signed with Williams until the end of 2025, that’s signed,” team principal James Vowles was at pains to point out at the team’s season launch.

But Red Bull has reportedly offered Albon an option for his services from 2026 onwards, because its Thai majority owners are naturally keen to get him back in the fold. This is boosted by Albon’s fine overall performances for Williams since 2022 – Melbourne crashes aside. But, given Vowles’s position, a Red Bull swoop for Albon for 2025 would have to come with a contract buyout, which strengthens Williams’s hand.

Any driver squeezed out in the coming driver market shake-up could well view Williams as a viable option to prolong their career

It would also have leverage for any desire on the part of Mercedes for Antonelli to start his F1 career away from its works squad. And, given what happened in Australia and Vowles’s obvious frustration with the Suzuka practice crash, it’s hard to see Logan Sargeant being retained for 2025.

In turn, this would mean that any driver squeezed out in the coming driver market shake-up could well view Williams as a viable option to prolong their career.

RB: Familiar themes at play

His strong performances standing in for Ricciardo last year means Lawson is a looming threat if the RB incumbents underperform

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Daniel Ricciardo seems to be blowing what had appeared to be a golden chance of replacing Perez at Red Bull – a surprise development given how 2023 ended for each. Again, how the Red Bull management contest ends up is key to Ricciardo’s future, since Horner’s respect for his former driver is well known.

RB’s US sponsors are also said to be massively tied to Ricciardo’s major brand value and mass fan appeal. It’s this more than anything that undermines recent reports in the New Zealand press that Ricciardo could be swapped out in favour of Liam Lawson for May’s Miami GP and onwards. That said, there were further rumours of something brewing in this regard, albeit in relation to a potential swap later in the summer, in the Italian press last week.

But Marko’s respect for Lawson is clear and, if a slot in Red Bull’s F1 seats does open, then he is considered a shoo-in to race for RB full-time given how well he performed in Ricciardo’s place last year.

In the other VCARB 01, Yuki Tsunoda is absolutely delivering, with his three Q3 appearances and points finishes in the past two races. Again, he needs things to fall his way, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility that Red Bull’s main team could come calling if it needs a fallback option for 2025 – say, if Sainz decides to commit elsewhere and Perez fails to keep up his current streak.

Haas: Getting Bearman ready for full-time F1

Haas has talked up the job Hulkenberg and Magnussen are doing although the potential of Bearman is clear for all to see

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

In recent years, Haas has veered away from its bold 2021 call to run a double rookie line-up. In Nikita Mazepin’s case, that was born out of necessity, while Mick Schumacher ultimately ended up proving too costly to continue. So Haas turned to the familiar, first with Kevin Magnussen and then Nico Hulkenberg.

The German veteran has led the line since 2023 with his starring performances in qualifying, but both drivers have scored this term. Yet Haas’s attention was already set to turn to a driver now widely expected to earn an F1 promotion for 2025: Ollie Bearman.

Even before his successful F1 debut in place of Sainz for Ferrari in Jeddah, the 18-year-old had six pre-planned FP1 outings with Haas for this year – at the Imola, Barcelona, Silverstone, Hungaroring, Mexico and Abu Dhabi events. He’s also its reserve racer, alongside his Ferrari commitments.

So far new team boss Ayao Komatsu has backed his incumbents. This is the only sensible strategy, with talks for all parties ongoing

For Haas, which was impressed with Bearman’s technical feedback in his first FP1 F1 appearances last year, this programme is understood to be an in-depth way of analysing his ultimate potential. But, as with the Antonelli/Williams theory, it could provide handy business logic for Gene Haas at a time when the US machine tooling mogul is assessing his every F1 investment given Bearman’s ties to his team’s engine supplier, Ferrari.

Bearman’s promotion to Haas would spell the end for either Magnussen or Hulkenberg at F1’s youngest squad, but so far new team boss Ayao Komatsu has backed his incumbents. This is the only sensible strategy, with talks for all parties ongoing, and Bearman could yet lose momentum in an F2 campaign already hampered by his Jeddah absence.

Magnussen played the team game well in Haas’s points runs in Jeddah and Melbourne, which will boost his case for staying. But for Hulkenberg, it’s not just Haas where he has opportunities for 2025…

Sauber: Audi’s influence is already being wielded

Audi's desire to get its ducks in a row at Sauber means Zhou and Bottas face uncertainty for as long as Sainz and co remain on the market

Photo by: Motorsport Images

So far, we’ve been running through the teams in 2023 constructors’ finishing order, with Ferrari and McLaren obviously left out since they are locked in for 2025 – with Leclerc and Hamilton, and Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri respectively. But Sauber, with its impeding Audi rebrand, is a special case.

We’ve covered how the driver market’s early explosion, to Marko’s chagrin, stems from Hamilton’s shock Ferrari news. But at Suzuka Marko was specifically referencing now, having “heard that Audi is making pressure”, before adding how it’s “a little bit strange for a newcomer to make pressure on the driver market”.

But Audi’s position surely makes sense. Of course it would want its first F1 driver line-up embedded before its 2026 debut, which it can do for its final Sauber year now that it has accelerated its takeover plans for the Swiss-based team. The benefit of a full integration of newcomers is obvious, and outsider drivers might be able to bring engine and chassis knowledge from which its project could benefit.

Signing Sainz has long been on Audi’s radar, and it’s this that could force his hand to commit early, even with seats at historically proven F1 squads still available. This plays with Sainz’s desired timeframe for deciding his future before the summer, which sits alongside what his father has no doubt passed on about Audi’s methods and backing from within its successful Dakar Rally operation.

Last year, Hulkenberg openly admitted to coveting an Audi drive, which would mean a reunion with Sauber after his one-year stint there in 2013. The team is also run by former McLaren team boss Andreas Seidl, who helmed the Porsche LMP1 project during Hulkenberg’s successful one-off Le Mans 24 Hours in 2015 with the Audi/VW stablemate marque. And Audi itself was targeting a German driver when its F1 project was officially launched in 2022.

An Audi move for either Sainz or Hulkenberg – or proven winners such as Ocon or Gasly, adding in Albon’s potential here too – would mean departures for Zhou Guanyu and Valtteri Bottas.

For Zhou, his case to stay is strengthened amid Audi’s desire to boost its car sales in China. It surely won’t have gone unnoticed that a Zhou-branded grandstand for his upcoming home race sold out in minutes – despite him never having raced at the Shanghai venue. Bottas has proven to be solid for Sauber, but equally has not blown Zhou away in their two-year stint as team-mates.

And this is the key takeaway of such a volatile driver market for 2025, with at least two rookie promotions in possible play. One or two long-term F1 stars could well be set to miss out as the championship heads towards its latest new era.

Bottas is a solid option, while Zhou has massive marketing appeal in China

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images