What Ferrari still needs to improve to return to F1 title contention

When the Ferrari SF21 was launched back in late February, Mattia Binotto was adamant that Ferrari would improve on its disastrous 2020 campaign. The team boss made no promises of victories or a title charge – that was simply never possible with the car carryover requirements forced upon the teams as a cost-saving measure amid the pandemic – but he did vow to make progress back towards the front. And Ferrari has certainly done that.

The shoots of recovery were clear to see by the start of summer. Ferrari had taken two shock pole positions and, although it was never in victory contention, mainly because Charles Leclerc was unable to start his home race in Monaco from the front of the grid, that was still far better than anything the SF1000 achieved on pure pace. And by almost every other statistical measure, Ferrari’s current challenger has made the 2021 campaign better than the woeful season the red team endured last year.

In 2020, Ferrari finished sixth in the constructors’ championship, taking three podiums, no poles and of course no wins. So far this year, it sits third in the teams’ standings, with four podiums (albeit one from the exclusion of former Ferrari star Sebastian Vettel’s Aston Martin in Hungary) and two poles.

A victory still eludes the recovering squad, but Leclerc had a highly probable chance to win in Monaco before the team failed to spot the broken driveshaft hub on his car following his Q3 crash, and he so nearly scored a fantastic first position at Silverstone after the title contenders collided. Only a Lewis Hamilton charge in a Mercedes W12 that is nearly 0.8% faster (via Autosport’s supertimes calculations) than the SF21 relegated Leclerc to second.

Ferrari’s modest but important 2021 successes stem from the improvements it was able to make in turning the SF1000 into the SF21. This featured the new gearbox design and overall work at the rear of the car (including the challenge of incorporating the new floor and diffuser rules) to improve the previous design’s poor handling in this area.

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The car’s positive front end and compliant behaviour over bumps and kerbs led to its strong showing in Monaco and was behind Leclerc’s other pole in Baku. The team’s pace was also good on other high-downforce tracks in Hungary and Mexico, as well as over the heavy bumps at Austin.

Leclerc took Monaco pole and likely would have won had it not been for legacy damage from his Q3 shunt that prevented him from starting

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Leclerc’s performance at Silverstone was rather unexpected, but the SF1000 wasn’t exactly lacking in downforce-generating devices needed to do well at such tracks, it’s just that it was famously robbed of power potency by Ferrari’s controversial settlement with the FIA regarding its previous power unit design. With the reworked engine the team introduced for the start of the current campaign, the output was much better – albeit still around 20bhp down on Honda and Mercedes – and it meant Ferrari could stay in the hunt at races such as the British Grand Prix, if opportunities came its way.

There is still frustration at the squad regarding Leclerc being eliminated from the Hungarian GP by Lance Stroll’s first-corner gaffe, given he (and Daniel Ricciardo to the outside) was set to gain massively thanks to Valtteri Bottas causing the initial pile-up.

But Ferrari’s 2021 season really took off after the summer break, specifically after it had chosen to introduce an upgraded hybrid system at the Russian GP in September. Initially this was just for Leclerc’s car, with Carlos Sainz Jr getting the new component - which doubles the capacity of the energy store - at the following round in Turkey.

"If I look at where we were last year, sixth, with few points in the championship, I think we made the most we could do with the current regulations" Mattia Binotto

The team’s logic was that it was worth taking the resulting grid penalties because running the new hybrid system would mean it could gather critical real-world data on how it would then fit into its package for the 2022 rules-reset cars, which are finally about to make their bows. The new parts are thought to be worth close to 10bhp in the overall power stakes, cutting the remaining gap to F1’s leading engines by nearly 50%, but critically they allow for the hybrid system to be used for longer without running into overheating problems.

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The bonus benefit of taking extra engines has been clear to see ever since Sochi. In the four races since both of its drivers started running the upgrade without being saddled with grid penalties, Ferrari has outscored McLaren (which, it must be acknowledged, has also had a terrible run of luck with incidents across both its cars in those events) by 65 points to 18, and has cemented itself as favourite to clinch third in the constructors’ championship.

McLaren insists that Ferrari always had the stronger 2021 package, regularly pointing to its pair of early-season poles, with the British team’s coming via Lando Norris and the drying-track challenge in Q3 at Sochi, where Sainz joined him on the front row. It was all very late-1990s/2000s, even if they were not fighting for the top spots on a regular basis.

Since its power upgrade, Ferrari has firmly had the upper-hand on McLaren and edged away in their battle for third

Photo by: Charles Coates / Motorsport Images

The scrap for third looks to be ever more firmly heading in Ferrari’s direction, but it is intriguing to consider how much harder it would have been for the Italian team had Ricciardo been able to match Norris’s pace and results in the MCL35M from the off.

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In any case, Alpine’s sensational points haul last time out in Qatar – where the high-speed, flowing track layout is another example of such circuits compressing F1’s midfield considerably – shows how a seemingly decided championship battle (over fifth with AlphaTauri) can be blown wide open very quickly. In the same way, the chance of Max Verstappen and Hamilton crashing again before the season finally concludes means a team such as Ferrari needs to be ready to seize any chance that comes its way in the final rounds, as McLaren did at Monza.

“Obviously the championship is not over yet,” Binotto said after Sainz and Leclerc finished seventh and eighth last time out in Qatar, fortunate not to lose ground to McLaren for the first time since Sochi only thanks to Norris’s late puncture.

“There are two races to go, and we are really focusing on trying to be the best for the last two. But if I look at where we were last year, sixth, with few points in the championship, I think we made the most we could do with the current regulations and the most of the car, [which] had also very limited opportunities of development as well in 2021 – we had to put priorities to develop [for] 2022 instead of 2021.

“So, overall, the team has made great progress with what was possible to do. And for that I am so happy because yes, third position is a great output for the efforts.”

While the results logged so far and Ferrari’s current championship position compared to 2020 rather speak for themselves, it’s worth considering where else the team needs to improve to challenge Mercedes and Red Bull in 2022.

The car rules revolution offers the chance for any team to make a big step up the grid, but paddock insiders insist that the skills and technology the leading teams have developed up to this point in the hybrid era will carry over to a certain extent next year as well. Whether that’s regarding certain tyre tricks, set-up arrangements or engine gains, few expect the current ‘Class A’ teams to suddenly lose what makes them special.

Binotto is delighted with the gains Ferrari has made given the regulation constraints of 2021

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

The big hope for a team such as Ferrari is that by having to find an extra edge while engaging in the ultra-close fight to win in 2021, one of Mercedes or Red Bull – or both – has had to devote additional, perhaps unexpected, resources that would otherwise be going towards their 2022 challengers. This could mean starting off F1’s new era at least slightly on the back foot, which would be offset somewhat by having the enhanced nous and knowledge that title fight pressures tend to cultivate.

That is something Ferrari has lacked during these two seasons fighting in the midfield, but where else does it need to be stronger to match Mercedes and Red Bull overall, with the potential of the new cars removed? Autosport puts this to Binotto over the Qatar weekend and his answer is routine, but nevertheless revealing.

“Looking at 2022, obviously we are back at the factory working very hard to develop the new car and we can only wait and see when we are back on track at the start of next season,” he replies. “If I look at the race team, [that] is what we can judge at the end of Qatar. I think the race team since the start of the season has made a lot of progress in terms of strategy, the way we manage driver communication, the understanding of what we are doing.

“It has improved a lot in terms of tyre management. [Qatar was] a circuit where you are wearing the tyres a lot due to the high energy of the corners. I think that since Paul Ricard [in June] the team developed a lot of small tools and methodologies to try to do it better, and [in Qatar] our two drivers always tried to control the pace – never push the limits, which can be very difficult for them because they are very keen to push more.

"All our efforts from the very start of the season have always been for the 2022 car – we never compromised it. So let’s say that it never came into our mind even to at some stage try to penalise 2022 at the benefit of 2021" Mattia Binotto

“But we told them to always try to control the pace because we knew this was a racecourse wearing a lot of front rubber. I think taking no risk at the end [meant] we have maybe some luck but have also seen some benefits in the results [with Norris among the drivers picking up a puncture].

“And finally, the pitstops. These were managed well after a triple header and the mechanics were tired – they had to change a chassis in one car [Leclerc’s] but they did fantastic work pitting two cars in a row. Overall, judging how the team is doing is progress and that’s great, especially in view of what we will do in 2022.”

One of the critical decisions Ferrari took in its plan to get back among F1’s frontrunners and finally challenge for titles, which have eluded the team for approaching 15 years, was in the aerodynamic development of the SF21.

Binotto believes the team has made progress in its strategies and driver communication

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Other than making a few tweaks around adapting to a ‘Z-floor’ in the opening rounds – it ran a tapered one in the pre-season – Ferrari has not made any aero developments of note. It switched its attentions in this area to 2022 very early, but it’s interesting that, had it not made such positive progress through the early stages of its recovery plan, Ferrari might have actually been able to make additional gains with its 2022 design.

This is because of the new rules regarding Aerodynamic Testing Periods with windtunnels and CFD tools, F1’s new (and very minor) form of performance balancing, which kicked in for this year. Now, the teams further down the constructors’ championship are able to use up to 12.5% more ATP time than was allowed in 2020, with the top team having this reduced by 10% at the same time.

Ferrari had an extra 2.5% of ATP time to use for finishing sixth last year, but its position halfway through this year, where the sliding-scale allocation in this area changed based on the results at 30 June, meant it moved to having 5% less than it started 2021 (so 2.5% down on the time allowed last year) for the second half of the season. But Binotto is adamant that the benefits of the progress Ferrari’s recovery plan has ‘naturally’ gained are worth losing the extra hours running its windtunnel and CFD kit.

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“We never really developed the current car,” he says of Ferrari’s approach to its resource allocation and planning throughout the current calendar year. “We introduced a couple of developments at the very start of the season and that’s it, except for the power unit later on. But that was a development in view of 2022, so all our efforts from the very start of the season have always been for the 2022 car – we never compromised it. So let’s say that it never came into our mind even to at some stage try to penalise 2022 at the benefit of 2021 [with extra ATP time].

“We knew that we could fight for the third place at the start of this season, we knew it could be very tight, but we knew that our main objective in 2021 was not third place but to try to improve in all the details as a team. And third place has simply been an output of it. I think if today we are reaching third place it’s because the team, the way they are working at various weekends, has certainly improved a lot since the start of the season and not because the car itself has developed.”

Binotto’s words reveal much about the journey Ferrari has been on this year, but also where it still needs to travel to match the teams currently ahead in the constructors’ championship. He highlights how the team operated in terms of tyre management in Qatar, making the tricky one-stop strategy work to get both cars in the points.

But Sainz and Leclerc were driving very conservatively to make sure their rubber would go the distance. They were fearful of a repeat of the French GP tyre woe Binotto references, where the team had its first (and so far, only) non-score of the season as its cars chewed through their tyres at an alarming rate and Leclerc in particular slumped down the order.

Setting a conservative pace in Qatar allowed both drivers to avoid the punctures experienced by Mercedes and McLaren

Photo by: Charles Coates / Motorsport Images

The team immediately decamped to Maranello to put in three days of solid simulator running to figure out what had gone so badly wrong. This work resulted in improved tyre management, such as the performance Leclerc deployed so well at Silverstone. This also helped Ferrari avoid the puncture drama in Qatar. F1’s tyres are changing for 2022, with the switch to 18-inch wheels. Any team that can nail understanding the new rubber will gain a big advantage.

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This is a lesson that can be seen playing out regularly in the Red Bull versus Mercedes battle – particularly in Turkey and Qatar, where decisions on car set-up and getting the tyres to adapt to new surfaces cost Red Bull dearly. Alpine’s Fernando Alonso insisted he could have gone faster on the one-stopper had he needed to when it came to defending against the charging Sergio Perez last time out. That the Ferraris were well adrift of that podium hunt (and qualified behind the Alpine) suggests there is still progress it needs to make in this crucial area ahead of 2022.

Another one concerns team operations. Binotto suggests that Ferrari has improved considerably here, and that Qatar double-stack stop was indeed very impressive, but missing the driveshaft hub damage overnight ahead of the Monaco race on Leclerc’s car cost him a near-certain victory on home soil.

No team is infallible in this area, as evidenced by Mercedes and its loose DRS screws on Hamilton’s rear wing that could have been so costly in Brazil (although being disqualified from qualifying at Interlagos actually appears to have paid off handsomely in motivating the world champion to reach greater heights). But Ferrari cannot afford to make such a mistake again if finally it is back in the hunt for titles in 2022, especially if the gaps between the teams are as close as F1 hopes thanks to the new rules.

What is clear for Ferrari is that not only did it make its terrible 2020 machine much better in an off-season of regulation-limited development, but it did that and also made considerable gains as a whole squad as the year has gone on

Then there’s engine power. The new hybrid system has provided a substantial boost, but the Ferrari powerplant is still not back to bothering the Honda (soon to be rebranded as Red Bull Powertrains) or the Mercedes. If Ferrari can crack this, without controversy, then it will surely be an F1 force to be reckoned with once again.

One area where Ferrari really doesn’t need to improve to match Mercedes and Red Bull concerns its driver line-up. So far in 2021, Sainz has scored 95.7% of Leclerc’s points total, and that’s the closest gap between team-mates at a squad that has points on the board (next up is Aston Martin, with Stroll having 79.1% of Vettel’s haul). That is a massive improvement compared to 2020, when Vettel brought home just 33.7% of Leclerc’s total as his time as a Ferrari driver came to an underwhelming conclusion.

Sainz has seriously impressed many in the F1 paddock with how close he has got to Leclerc in his first year as a Ferrari driver. The Monegasque has still had the higher peaks – such as that Silverstone race drive – but Sainz’s own efforts have actually made Leclerc’s results appear more erratic, because his new team-mate is able to be so much closer than Vettel achieved last year.

Sainz has impressed since joining Leclerc, giving Ferrari one of the most evenly-matched lineups in F1

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

“I said at the start of the season that I believe I’ve got the best line-up on the grid,” Binotto says of his drivers. “I still believe that it is the best line-up, with the way they are working together and with the consistency of the results.”

Binotto can certainly claim that Ferrari currently has F1’s best driver pairing, but that mantle will be seriously tested once George Russell slots in alongside Hamilton at Mercedes next year. And if Ricciardo can stay on his current course and regularly match Norris as McLaren heads into 2022 hoping for its own vault back into title consideration, then there will be further challenges to that claim.

At the same time, these strong pairings again highlight that Red Bull’s driver line-up remains rather unbalanced, despite Sergio Perez’s best efforts (he has 54.1% of Verstappen’s points) to close the gap in the tricky RB16B…

Leclerc and Sainz have also formed a rather friendly and engaging partnership at Ferrari this year, but that relationship will come under new strain if they find themselves in a title battle any time soon. And that is another crucial element Binotto and co must hope has improved away from the spotlight of a championship challenge, because in the last year when Ferrari was able to bother Mercedes and Red Bull – 2019 – things between Leclerc and Vettel imploded spectacularly.

But before it has to worry about such things being scrutinised, the only big test that really matters is about to come for Ferrari. This is how the coming car for which it sacrificed this year performs in 2022. The same is true for so many F1 teams, but what is clear for Ferrari is that not only did it make its terrible 2020 machine much better in an off-season of regulation-limited development, but it did that and also made considerable gains as a whole squad as the year has gone on. This is all without the major aero upgrades that would typically take place.

That bodes well. Ferrari was a team on the up midway through 2021, and it seems to be very much still on its target trajectory heading into F1’s new era.

Ferrari's task for 2022 will be to continue its upward trajectory and get back to its traditional place

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images