Verstappen fights Leclerc for F1's records – F1's 1100th race

Formula 1's next 100 races are much more important than its 1000th world championship event this weekend. By the 1,100th race, which based on the current calendar will be coming towards the end of the 2023 season, F1 will be immersed in its next generation: either into the swing of executing its massive rules overhaul, fumbling with the fallout of panicked backtracking, or plotting further reformation still.

If F1 executes its 2021 revolution right, the prospects are mouthwatering. Especially as the pool of driving talent is in rude health and is arguably its strongest asset.

That puts it in a strong position to handle one of the toughest transitions in sports: waving goodbye to your established stars and ushering in a new generation without losing momentum in between.

Charles Leclerc is 21. Max Verstappen is 21. George Russell is 21. Lando Norris is 19. We're looking at a new generation that is earning its stripes against multiple world champions such as Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel, two of the best in history, and with the prospect of having another decade at the top when those drivers disappear.

All three of the major teams have serious long-term options. Autosport's 2023 season preview is overwhelmingly excited: 'Never has F1 been dominated by boisterous youth quite like this'.

In the red corner, two-time world champion Charles Leclerc is joined by the son-of-the-prodigal-son as Mick Schumacher, finally, makes his Maranello debut after two years with Alfa Romeo. In the silver corner, following the failed efforts of Mercedes to prise Max Verstappen from Red Bull with a $100m contract, Esteban Ocon and George Russell are reunited once more: with Ocon under pressure to prove his team was wrong to ever sniff out his long-time Dutch rival. And in the matte blue corner (running the same livery for a record 18 years in a row) are two hot-headed, red-blooded, untameable talents: Verstappen joined by a driver as spectacular and controversial in Toro Rosso graduate Dan Ticktum.

Maybe Autosport is getting carried away, but F1's top teams are in safe hands.

And if F1's 2021 overhaul achieves what it is set out to, perhaps that will be the way back to relevance again at the front of F1 for McLaren and Renault. Should be that the case, that excitement might not go far enough.

Lando Norris has swiftly adapted to F1 life and excelled in his first two grands prix, which is the foundation for a long career should it prove to be the rule rather than the exception. And if Renault has joined the sharp end too, almost two decades after it last won a title, maybe it will bring a French talent with it - such as snapping up Pierre Gasly? Its move for Daniel Ricciardo shows it is not afraid nor incapable of swooping for a jilted Red Bull talent, and if Verstappen rules the roost as many expect him to, that's what Gasly may well become.

The future of several teams will depend on how they are able, or willing, to react to the direction F1 heads in

The prospect of Ferrari, Red Bull, Mercedes, McLaren and Renault all having skin in the game and represented by drivers barely in their mid-20s in 2023 is very, very exciting. Of course, this depends on whether these teams are still around in F1 by then...

Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull have all made noises of dissatisfaction at various points during the 2021 negotiations. Renault and McLaren are not happy about the rules that facilitate the success of the likes of Haas, which has struck such a cosy relationship with Ferrari. It is known that Honda faces a big season to convince its paymasters in Japan to continue sanctioning the F1 project - although as the engine rules remain broadly similar to now but introduce greater electrical trickery to give drivers an effective push-to-pass system, there are great technological reasons for the Japanese company to stick around.

A four-page news-analysis, beamed directly into readers' brains, addresses Red Bull's latest quit threat in the build-up to the 1,100th race:

F1 has heard these claims before, from Red Bull, but now it is acting. Preparations are being made to shut down Toro Rosso, with sources close to the team indicating that increasingly-strict rules prohibiting 'B-team'-like set-ups are to blame. "McLaren, Renault and Williams might be celebrating teams being forced to build their front suspension, but it's not fixed two-tier F1 - it's just created a different type of it," Red Bull team boss Christian Horner said last month. Without close ties to its senior team, Toro Rosso, like Haas, has slumped this season and failed to score any points in the first 15 races

There is almost no chance of a Doomsday-like scenario that wipes out all the major players at F1's 1000th race this weekend by the time of its 1100th. But given F1 has been split by the rise of close affiliations between big teams (like Ferrari) and smaller teams (like Haas) the argument over what components teams must build themselves is a vital one for the future of independent outfits like Williams and Haas, who sit on either side of the fence.

The future of several teams will depend on how they are able, or willing, to react to the direction F1 heads in. If Renault takes advantage of the 2021 overhaul to become a race-winning team again, surely it will stay.

But if Renault feels its investment is not being respected by the rulemakers, which continue to allow smaller, lesser-funded outfits to operate in a way that allows them to beat the big guns, that will surely threaten the commitment of a (partially state-owned) company with a duty to show return on investment. McLaren and Williams are in a similar position, albeit in a slightly different form. They are big, multi-faceted companies now, but fallen giants in an F1 context. Why continue if they feel the deck is stacked against them?

F1 has indicated that new teams are interested, so if one or two slipped away they may realistically be replaced. But if F1 lost a long-standing participant such as McLaren or Williams?

The consequences are considered by Future Autosport.com, on which a mid-2023 news story on the eve of the race notes:

It is understood that Williams has even considered taking its technological nous to NASCAR, having seen the success that McLaren has enjoyed since its own full-time expansion to the United States, where Fernando Alonso has won the Indianapolis 500 twice.

For now, though, let's remain optimistic. For even if one or two teams did disappear, the likes of Verstappen and Leclerc will remain hot properties and find themselves in a top team. And while we do not know if F1 will lose teams in the next few years, we do know it will lose big-name drivers. But who is to say that one of Hamilton's or Vettel's successors can't rewrite the record books?

Verstappen already has the honour of being F1's youngest race winner, but as F1 hurtles into the future, Leclerc scoops the big one by clinching the 2020 title to usurp Vettel as the youngest champion in history. Red Bull gets the edge with Honda in 2021, allowing Verstappen to beat Hamilton and Leclerc to a maiden crown as Ferrari makes a slow start to the new rules-cycle.

With Hamilton walking away and Russell winning races in his first season in silver but not quite in title contention, Verstappen and Leclerc fight for the 2022 championship between one another: with Verstappen just retaining the edge. Advantage Max, ahead two titles to one in the fight to be the greatest driver of this exceptional generation. Meanwhile, another record falls as Norris becomes the youngest poleman in F1 history - although McLaren is not at title-challenging capacity.

Thus, F1's 2023 season commences, and by the time of the 1,100th race it will face one of its defining moments: a battle royale between Leclerc and Verstappen on the streets of Hanoi and the perfect symbol F1's grand new era Liberty Media has ushered in - exciting racing in a new territory.

F1's upcoming millennial event is a great achievement for F1 but it is a red herring to view it as a symbol of the championship's health. If you want a milestone for that, check out race 1,100

A particularly misty-eyed Autosport journalist's race report of the 1,100th world championship Formula 1 race reads:

"The sheer brilliance of the 2023 Vietnamese Grand Prix has its roots in 2021, if not even earlier. Wheel-to-wheel racing has come to characterise the highlights of this season: it has not been ever-present, particularly as teams continue to find ways to increase top-surface downforce. Crucially, it remains possible, and that is more than enough with Leclerc, Verstappen and Russell vying for the title for three different teams, and five teams qualifying within half a second at some races.

"We have been spoiled by countless examples of the allure of the spectacular, which has given F1 a 'Cirque du Soleil' feel this season. And as the rain hit in the closing stages of the fourth installment of F1's Hanoi race, leaving Leclerc and Verstappen to slip, slide and battle their way to the flag on slick tyres, it may have reached its peak."

The underlying point of this quite frankly absurd F1 utopia is that if the rulemakers are as successful as they think they can be with their car design overhaul, then F1 has a real shot at being better than ever. But the intriguing storylines will get suffocated without F1 picking the right timeline to embrace.

This leads us to the other fundamental reason why the strength of F1 at race #1100 is so important. It will show how it has reacted to its own impending overhaul. F1 will be three seasons into the big 2021 overhaul everybody is debating now. The pros and cons will no longer be hypothetical, but real - as will how F1 handles them.

Had F1 not stuck to its guns over the 2014 engine rules change, it would have been back to the drawing board for '15, or '16, or maybe not even until '17, when the shake-up we know as a major aerodynamic overhaul could have been directed at something else.

Who knows where F1 would be now, had that been the case? Maybe rulemakers would have had poor racing exposed earlier, bringing forward the push to stop relying on the drag reduction system and sparking a racing revolution. But if F1 was in complete rule flux and controversy, confusing 'up' with 'down' and not knowing which direction to go in, would Liberty Media have stayed at the negotiating table?

Whatever your views on F1's owner, the 2021 overhaul would not be happening without it and Liberty is finally targeting the flaws that have previously been left untouched. Change is coming in 2021 and if it goes well then F1's short-term and medium-term future will be secured and prosperous.

But even if it goes badly, F1 must make a choice: take on a rough short-term period and work to shore up the vision it has of a better future - or succumb to political pressures, perform a painful, Austin Powers-style U-turn and back out of the things that F1 must change to stay relevant and entertaining.

F1's upcoming millennial event is a great achievement for F1 but it is a red herring to view it as a symbol of where the championship's health is truly at. If you want a milestone for that, check out race 1,100.

The first phase of F1's 'second millennium' will almost certainly grow to be defined by the likes of Verstappen and Leclerc, regardless of the success of the rules. One of them may well kick that off by winning F1's 1,000th race this weekend.

That would send the perfect message: F1 has an incredible history, but its future can be even better.