Tim Wright's rundown of the 2020 F1 contenders

It's now four months since my first assessment of Formula 1 pre-season testing at Barcelona for Autosport and, unfortunately due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting lockdown, we have still to see how the teams actually stack up against each other.

I suspect that even with the factory lockdowns, the team personnel won't have been concentrating entirely on making their gardens look pretty. Teams have had a unique opportunity to design and make new parts after seeing their rivals in action at Barcelona, and I think we will see some different parts on some of the cars when they take to the track in Austria.

Of course, one or two teams have been out testing, albeit with two-year-old machinery (unless it's classified as a 'filming session'!). Renault seems to have pulled a fast one, using the excuse of no quarantine rules in Austria, and has racked up huge mileage at the Red Bull Ring prior to the forthcoming opening two races at the same venue. The squad must have gained some valuable data.

The approach to how teams operate at the races will have changed enormously. As we have seen from footage with Mercedes at Silverstone, everyone is having to wear PPE to a certain extent. But will it be the pitstops where the biggest advantages will be gained?

Teams are still allowed 60 essential personnel and, because pitstop crews are normally well protected with suits, goggles, helmets etc this should be enough. But this is the one scenario where three mechanics per wheel cannot possibly social distance. This may well change before the weekend starts.

The FIA, in association with the World Health Organisation, has issued a comprehensive document named FIA Return to Motor Sport that stipulates how each event will be run, how many people are allowed, what PPE they have to wear, how many marshals, scrutineers etc, and this will have to be adjusted to each country's government guidelines. This will have caused a huge logistical nightmare for the teams.

Although F1 sporting chief Ross Brawn has outlined his vision of a biosphere in which to keep them apart, it will come down to how switched on they all are as to whether this works in their favour. Will there be a queueing system at Pirelli? Does anyone have priority (surely not)? With no motorhomes, how will everybody be fed?

PLUS: Ask Tim: The three keys to success in Austria

I suspect that in terms of the racing not much will have changed unless, as I have speculated, some teams will have new parts that may or may not improve their performance.

The other consideration for the teams is the weather. Nobody (except for Renault) has run in hot weather this year, and the 700-metres altitude of the Red Bull Ring brings another factor into the equation, plus the threat of rain. Expect tyre wear to be a big conundrum for the teams given the weather and the nature of the circuit.

Another thing to look for will be driver fitness. It will be the neck that suffers the most, especially with the high-g corners at this track. Sitting in front of simulators does not prepare them for the real thing.

Mercedes

The Barcelona tests back in February seem a long time ago, but you don't need the memory of an elephant to recall that Mercedes was still the team to beat. During the second test, neither Lewis Hamilton nor Valtteri Bottas was able to beat Bottas's time of 1m15.732s from the last day of the first test, but that time was set when arguably conditions were at their best.

The Silver Arrows were able to run consistently in the 1m19s on the medium C3 tyre, putting the team ahead on the long runs as well as outright pace. Even on two sets of the harder C2, Bottas put in a race distance and then continued running, performing constant-speed tests on the main straight and around Turn 3, gathering important aero information.

PLUS: What we've learned from the second F1 test

The W11 is apparently festooned with all manner of innovations, according to technical director James Allison, the most obvious being the dual-axis steering system. Whether the team goes on to race this idea remains to be seen, as it has raised questions as to its legality. There are certainly advantages on circuits that have long straights, the system also allowing the tyres to be worked harder in twisty infield sections.

It's interesting to see how Mercedes keeps the front of the car flat when cornering by connecting the two rockers with a small link, but they react together in a straight line. That's unlike other teams such as Red Bull, which have an obvious third damper to limit the amount of front-end movement on the straight.

Hamilton alluded in February to the fact that Mercedes still had a few engine problems to sort out, and this was borne out by Williams having two engine changes over the two tests. Given its record and the resources at hand, I'm sure Mercedes will still be at the head of the field, but will it be the year that Bottas finally shines?

Lewis Hamilton

The red hot favourite for the title, and if he does win it he equals Schumacher's record of seven championships. The Mercedes W11 was much better in testing than the W10 was at a similar stage in 2019, but that didn't stop it winning the first eight races. He's also led the agenda off the track, from being the first to speak out about the folly of going to Australia, to leading F1 in supporting anti-racism and helping launch diversity initiatives.

Valtteri Bottas

He's looking much stronger than he was before 2019, when Esteban Ocon was hanging around ready to step in should Bottas repeat his poor end-of-2018 form. Came out of the blocks with a superb Melbourne win, and took three further victories on his way to his maiden runner-up championship finish in F1. Says he feels more complete after the coronavirus hiatus, so should cement status as ideal complement to Hamilton.

Ferrari

Remember the Ferrari controversy from the original pre-season? It was all about the legality of the fuel system used in 2019. The saga was exacerbated by the lack of straightline speed exhibited by the SF1000 in Barcelona testing, some suggesting this was because the team was now having to run a different fuel system.

Ferrari blamed it on a draggy car, but that sounds ridiculous given all the data and windtunnel information it has. The car was 11mph slower on the main straight compared to the Alfa Romeo, which uses the same engine.

While Sebastian Vettel was able to wring out a sub-1m17s time, albeit on the soft C5 tyres, the team was still shy of Mercedes' pace. The car looks surprisingly simple compared to the Mercedes, with the exception of the complex array of elements in front of the sidepods.

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Perhaps this is where the problems lie (like Haas), in that they are creating a low-pressure area and not feeding the 'Coke-bottle' area and diffuser efficiently. The engine cover is tightly pulled in around the engine and cooling parts, so flow to the rear wing should not present a problem.

Charles Leclerc finished the last day of testing fourth and a 1m16.360s lap must have been encouraging, but we're used to seeing the red cars always around the top three. Ferrari did manage the highest number of laps during the second test, which shows the reliability is there.

I saw Ferrari trying an alternative front pushrod articulated bracket, either because of a failure or a slightly different geometry. It's been reported that, although slow-speed performance has been improved, there was still an element of understeer and the badly grained tyres were testament to this. There will have been furious analysis going on at Maranello to figure out how to rescue the situation.

Sebastian Vettel

This is going to be an interesting one. Ferrari has at last ditched its cripplingly conservative driver-choice regime for 2021 and the four-time champion makes way for Carlos Sainz Jr. But Vettel still has it in him, witness the steps forward he made at the end of 2019 - with the exception of his ludicrous move on Leclerc in Brazil. He could be driving for his career; he could be on a morale-boosting farewell tour. And there will be drama.

Charles Leclerc

The new poster boy for F1 - looks of a Cevert, driving skills of a Prost - should have built on his 2019 momentum to enter this season as a serious threat for the championship. But damn... that Ferrari didn't look very good in testing. Leclerc has only made steps forward in his career, so it will be interesting how he copes if the car isn't up to much. Hopefully with a better result than the ersatz Rendezvous remake he got dragged into.

Red Bull

Red Bull is probably the darkest horse in the field - it didn't show its true pace in testing. Benefiting from its strong Honda engine package, Red Bull racked up an impressive number of laps over the six days of testing in February and, although at the start the car looked rather skittish in both drivers' hands, by the end Max Verstappen was able to set some impressive long-run times.

The front suspension has been tweaked to include a one-piece front lower wishbone forward leg, maybe due to a unique double front bulkhead design, leading to less space for normal attachments but also, because the rear leg of the said wishbone is separate, allowing two smaller bearings to take the load at the upright. Team members were seen measuring the overall track width a couple of times during the first test, suggesting that it is on the limit.

The way the steering arm has been positioned, it looks as though Red Bull has taken inspiration from a Citroen 2CV in that on lock it winds on more castor, which in turn with the articulated pushrod lowers that front corner, therefore putting the front wing closer to the ground.

Benefiting from continuity within the team should help Alex Albon back up Verstappen and put the team closer to Mercedes. He looked more at ease with the car at the Barcelona test once his seat had been sorted out - it seemed to not fit him correctly at the start of testing.

The team concentrated more on longer runs in Spain, getting the RB16 to work on the harder C2 and C3 tyres rather than going for glory on the C5. But, using the C4 tyre, Verstappen ended the last day in second place, just 0.073 seconds behind the Mercedes of Valtteri Bottas, who was on the softer C5 Pirelli.

Alexander Albon

It's pretty much unheard of for Albon to go into a winter knowing what he's doing the following season - only he can't have expected the 'winter' to last until July. That gives him stability to focus on the most important thing - getting closer to the pace of team-mate Verstappen than he was able to do in a half-season at Red Bull in 2019. Has already been out in the RB16 at Silverstone in a pre-Austria filming-day warm-up. This is his chance.

Max Verstappen

The rise of Leclerc has taken a little of the spotlight away from Verstappen, whose arrival in F1 ironically created the superlicence points rules that will keep many similarly talented drivers out of the championship. Form from testing suggests that Red Bull's superstar should be the threat that worries Hamilton the most. Red Bull's first year with Honda gave him three wins and third in the points, and Verstappen is all set for a big leap forward.

McLaren

Both drivers reported back in February that the MCL35 is a lot more forgiving than the 2019 car, and lap times suggest McLaren can be consistent on long runs. Carlos Sainz Jr seems more comfortable with the car than Lando Norris, but maybe it's because he was on home turf (or asphalt) in Spain.

The car looks like an evolution of the MCL34 and, although McLaren finished a good fourth in last year's constructors' championship, I don't think the team has made big enough strides to better that this year.

The front suspension takes its lead from the likes of Mercedes and Racing Point, with the top wishbone pick-up point on the front upright hung out on an extreme proboscis-like bracket. This leaves the top wishbone quite flat and will induce more camber change on bump. McLaren too has adopted the articulated front pushrod designed to lower the front corner on extreme lock.

A new front-wing assembly was tried at Barcelona. There didn't appear to be a huge difference in the make-up of the flaps but, given the secrecy around its arrival, it might have been just stronger bracketry to stop flexing.

Once again, long-run progress was not startling, but maybe different set-ups were being tried, masking the car's true pace.

McLaren's history suggests it should be up at the front fighting for victories, but the reality of the past few seasons means that's still a little way off. The team's improvement under Andreas Seidl in 2019 was impressive and the hope must surely be to nibble away at the gap to the Big Three, while holding off the factory charge of Renault. Surprisingly, this is a team with financial problems, while the prospect of losing Sainz to Ferrari at the end of the season may have disrupted McLaren's preparation.

Lando Norris

His race performances in 2019 as a rookie weren't quite on a par with those of team-mate Sainz, and this is where Norris needs to kick on. Certainly, the qualifying form of the first Ginetta Junior graduate to make it to F1 is strong - and his one-lap stats have been incredible throughout his career. Has made hiatus headlines, from Esport wars with IndyCar 'virtual' thugs to getting back behind the wheel with F3 cars run by his old mates at Carlin.

Carlos Sainz Jr

He was a touch overshadowed by Max Verstappen at Toro Rosso and not really any more exciting than piece-of-midfield-furniture Nico Hulkenberg at Renault. But at McLaren he's been a star. The team has improved hugely under Andreas Seidl and Sainz has proved that not all quick Spanish drivers are determined to criticise everything and crush morale. He'll be a big loss to McLaren when he joins Ferrari.

Renault

It looks as though Renault has actually caught up with its customer team - McLaren - and certainly Daniel Ricciardo was looking a lot happier towards the end of Barcelona testing back in February, when he was able to post a time only 0.08 seconds slower than Valtteri Bottas. This was backed up by new team-mate Esteban Ocon, who was another tenth-and-a-half further back.

Of course, Ricciardo's departure at the end of this season for that customer team has thrown something of a spanner into the works.

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A lot of Renault's work has gone into the bargeboard area, with some strange looking teeth-shaped elements in an effort to turn the air past the sidepods into the 'Coke-bottle' area and diffuser. A different, tighter engine cover was tried but required some last-minute fitting repairs.

The front wing flaps show a slightly different approach, with fatter outboard shapes on the top element and longer chord on the third as the team searches for more front downforce. The outer part of the top element is also the only front-wing adjustment, which explains its shape.

Unlike other teams, it doesn't look as though Renault is blowing the air through the front wheel, although it did look as though the team was taking pressure readings around the brake drum.

Testing of the RS20 got off to a slow start and the team appeared to be battling with getting the rear rideheight sorted, but by the last two days the car was able to run more consistently.

Last season was something of a disappointment, and Renault will be aiming to get closer to the front and jump back ahead of its customer team, even if Ricciardo wants the customer team to be in the mix too...

Daniel Ricciardo

The bank account is looking pretty since his move to Renault, and in one year he pretty much finished off the career of Nico Hulkenberg while carrying the 2019 Renault to three top-six grid positions. But sacrilege! He's enraged the Regie with his move to McLaren for 2021, and has the distraction of an ambitious and feisty Esteban Ocon in the sister car this season. That's going to upset the panier de pommes. Expect action here.

Esteban Ocon

Oh, this is going to be tasty. Renault decided he wasn't good enough to take a seat for 2019 when it managed to snare Daniel Ricciardo from Red Bull, and now he's alongside the Aussie after a season as the Mercedes reserve - and Ricciardo's off at the end of the year. His speed should be up to beating Ricciardo, but racecraft-wise he is good, if not as razor-sharp as some of the masters - and they include Ricciardo.

AlphaTauri

The latest team with a new name (until Racing Point becomes Aston Martin), the old Toro Rosso squad is perhaps trying to distance itself from big brother Red Bull and looks to be doing a pretty good job. Armed with a repackaged Honda engine, this team could spring a few surprises this year so long as it keeps Daniil Kvyat and Pierre Gasly under control.

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AlphaTauri obviously still has access to certain components from Red Bull and seems to have packaged them well, particularly around the rear suspension and a tightly-sculptured engine cover that feeds air nicely to the rear wing. The front wing and nose certainly look to be one of the most interesting areas, with wide, spread pylons helping to stabilise the front wing assembly.

The undercut of the nose helps direct the air onto a flat plane feeding directly onto the T-tray, not using fences as most other teams have done. The flap arrangement does differ from Red Bull's in that the team has opted to keep the inboard section more heavily loaded, thereby channelling more air through to the bargeboard section.

Looking at the front suspension, it is similar to the Red Bull's in that AlphaTauri has kept the top wishbone pick-up on the upright low, which means that the wishbone itself rises towards the chassis, giving less camber change on bump. The third damper is exactly the same and the 'junior' team has also adopted the multi-link top wishbone.

There were interesting battles going on between Gasly and Alex Albon in the Red Bull during the February tests, with long-run pace similar, and honours were pretty much even. Toro Rosso was a fine sixth in the constructors' championship last year and there are signs that AlphaTauri can fight for a similar spot in 2020.

Pierre Gasly

He's a sensitive, very likeable chap and somehow it shouldn't surprise that, while he couldn't cut it at Red Bull, he flourished once back in the less rarefied atmosphere of Toro Rosso. Second place in Brazil was a superb result and, ironically, allowed him to pip Alex Albon in the points. Unfortunately, when you say the team's new name of AlphaTauri it makes you think of Michael Gove in an Alfasud, but hopefully Gasly's form will dispel such horrors.

Daniil Kvyat

Like Gasly, he's been through the mangle a bit. He was flicked from Red Bull's top team, then demoted from the junior squad at the end of 2017 by... Gasly. After a year on Ferrari's testing books, Kvyat was a driver reborn on his Toro Rosso return in 2019. It's a handy line-up and Kvyat, like his team-mate, is capable of good results. This is an interesting combination and if the car's any good there could be a surprise.

Racing Point

Racing Point was another team to raise the pulses of journalists and team principals back in February due to the unveiling of what appears to be a very close relation of the Mercedes W10, only in pink. Granted, the team uses the same windtunnel as Mercedes and is maybe privy to some of the data, but there's no doubt that the car is rapid.

Sergio Perez says the RP20 is the best racing car he's ever driven, and Lance Stroll impressed at times in the Barcelona tests, putting in some fast tours on the C4 tyre. There are subtle differences between the 2019 Mercedes and 2020 Racing Point around the front wing flaps and bargeboards, which you would expect. But, as technical director Andy Green has said, why shouldn't the operation follow Mercedes' lead? He seems somewhat surprised that other teams haven't done the same.

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The car looks planted and the change of direction in the final part of the Barcelona lap was impressive. The front suspension looks strikingly like the Mercedes', with the front top wishbone attachment to the upright and the articulated pushrod, but there the similarities end, according to Green, with all internal workings being in-house designs.

The rear bodywork is squeezed in tightly to the engine and ancillaries in a similar way to the Mercedes' and has the same shape of shark fin. The rear wing main element looks to have quite an aggressive nose-up attitude, suggesting the team is looking for more performance.

I'm not sure Racing Point has made the step to worry the top teams, judging by the long-run times, but the team was focusing on shorter outings in search of the best set-up. The RP19 was only the ninth fastest car on average last year, but the 'pink Mercedes' looks like it'll be further up the order.

Sergio Perez

The so-called 'pink Mercedes' has been quick in testing, so this midfield lifer - who has an astonishing tally of 74 finishes from seventh to 10th in a grand prix - looks as though he could add nicely to his collection of eight podiums. Perez is now established as a rock-solid professional but, with this team building nicely with its injection of Stroll cash, there's nothing to suggest a win is beyond him if he gets the right breaks.

Lance Stroll

A fair enough F1 driver, Stroll still mustered a points score less than half that of team-mate Perez in 2019, and he should really have been doing more than that in his third season. F1 has been a much tougher deal for a driver who had a better F3 record than contemporaries Leclerc, Russell, Albon, Giovinazzi etc. Will a step forward in competitiveness for Racing Point make him a more regular points scorer?

Alfa Romeo

This team has produced an efficient package, backed up by the C39's prodigious DRS-assisted straightline speed of 208mph on the second day of the first Barcelona test that also helped Kimi Raikkonen top the timesheets using the relatively soft C4 tyres.

Raikkonen managed a couple of spins during his testing stints, but on the whole looked happy with his steed. He did, however, cause a red flag at the end of the day when he stopped just before Turn 9.

Alfa Romeo used its reserve driver, Robert Kubica, at the tests in Spain. He ended up fastest driver on the first day of the second test using the softest C5 tyre, showing again that the car is working well on a one-lap basis.

The C39 looks like a good progression from last year, while employing certain elements around the rear - notably the main exhaust and wastegate tailpipes - as used by the other Ferrari-powered teams. The biggest departure is the treatment of the top engine inlet that has a triangular roll hoop element in front of a large air intake.

The front wing adjustment seems to include moving three of the outer portions of the flap elements together, suggesting they provide a greater range, therefore the adjustment will be quite fine. But, as with most of the mid-pack teams, Alfa Romeo was unable to get the consistency on long runs, so may be able to qualify well but could slip back during races.

Antonio Giovinazzi in particular seemed to be struggling with long-run pace during the Barcelona tests, with a particular drop-off after 15 laps. Alfa Romeo started 2019 quite strongly, then fell back a little in the final part of the season, so it will be interesting to see how it can develop the C39 during the campaign.

Kimi Raikkonen

A 40-year-old veteran whose F1 debut, in the 2001 Australian GP, came when Lando Norris was just 15 months old. He wasn't really good enough for the Ferrari seat he hogged for too long, but back with his old Sauber mates under Alfa Romeo nomenclature he proved he's still good enough to score decent points in what should be a solid midfield car. Shows no sign of stopping, and remains a top barometer for the Ferrari protege alongside.

Antonio Giovinazzi

This swashbuckling Italian is surely one of the nicest guys ever to sit in an F1 car. His first full season at the top of the sport last year proved he has Raikkonen-matching speed in qualifying, but he needs to improve on his consistency in the races. He has to at least do as well as Raikkonen on Sundays to hang on to a seat in F1, especially with five more Ferrari proteges - albeit of wildly varying promise - clogging up the F2 field.

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Haas

One team trying to change an annus horribilis of 2019 into an annus mirabilis is Haas. From the first day of testing back in February with Kevin Magnussen at the wheel, the VF-20 looked a better package than its predecessor.

But it did seem that Haas has a problem getting the C3 tyre to work over a long run at Barcelona compared to the harder C2. This seems to have been the squad's Achilles' heel last year and I'm not sure it is on top of the problem - it was one of the only teams not to break into the 1m16s during testing.

A couple of unfortunate breakages and a clutch issue hampered running during the second test, contributing to Haas racking up the fewest laps in total, Magnussen in particular having the least amount of running time.

Having said all this, the car didn't look too bad through the final twisty section of the lap (if you ignore the number of times Romain Grosjean locked up at Turn 10), so it leaves me to believe that it's the quick corners where it's suffering. This is down to lack of downforce, which then compounds the theory that Haas can't switch the tyres on sufficiently.

The architecture of the car shows that the team has concentrated a lot in channelling the air through the bargeboard area, but there's such an array of elements that maybe this has not achieved what the engineers were looking for once the air reaches the 'Coke- bottle' area and the diffuser.

Also, the changes to the rear wing and the V-shaped cut-outs in particular are contributing to drag rather than speeding the air and producing the downforce needed. Experimenting with different T-wings shows Haas is trying to help the rear-wing elements.

I don't expect to see Haas any further up the grid, which is a pity as it seems the future of the team may lie in its performances this year.

Romain Grosjean

Occasionally brilliant and often maddening in an F1 car, he's been doing his old trick of locking up his brakes during testing. Then came the long hiatus, which will hopefully have given him chance to write another cookery book with his wife Marion - surely the only F1 driver's spouse to have a given name that's an anagram of her husband's. Stay tuned for more peaks and troughs as Haas struggles on in the lower midfield.

Kevin Magnussen

Now entering his fourth season with Haas, it has to be said that his career is stagnating a bit. After finishing second on his debut with McLaren in the 2014 Australian GP, he hasn't stood on the podium in the intervening 101 starts, and that's a number that will surely rise through the rest of 2020. Sadly, he won't even have a chance to take his now customary late-race, new-tyred Singapore fastest lap this year either.

Williams

The legendary team has endured a couple of uncompetitive seasons, not helped by disruptive personnel changes, but there are signs that the tide may be beginning to turn. Just to make a point, Williams put the first car onto the circuit on day one of testing at Barcelona with George Russell driving.

The FW43 is maybe what the team should have produced last year because, compared to its competitors, it looks a little behind on design, in particular the shape of the nose and front-wing layout. Having said this, there was a slightly different front flap array, more like the Mercedes', tried during the second test.

The team's track time was hampered by engine problems, but on the circuit the car didn't look as though it was giving the drivers much confidence in the quick corners. A lot of work was dedicated to set-up changes that helped in the braking area such as at Barcelona's Turn 10, but the changes of direction were not crisp.

Hopefully Williams will have learned a lot about the wake off the front wing and wheels, having run a huge array of sensors during the test. But it's how you control that wake and use it with the bargeboards to then feed the diffuser and rear wing - and at the moment that seems to be Williams's weak point.

The inclusion of Nicholas Latifi is a shrewd move. Although a rookie, he should be able to help with development. Members of the team have reported that the atmosphere within the squad is already lighter with his inclusion.

Williams's long-run pace is still a little behind the others, although it may start to worry Haas and Alfa Romeo during races. I hope the recent struggles with losing a major sponsor and having to look for a buyer to save the team hasn't detracted from its focus.

Nicholas Latifi

Hasn't topped a single-seater qualifying session since he prevailed over a dismally small British F3 grid in 2013, and he's certainly not going to do that in a Williams. Actually, he likely wouldn't do it even if he had a Mercedes. That said, Canada's 'other' fabulously wealthy F1 driver will certainly not disgrace himself. He has a deft touch that makes him strong in fast corners, and his work rate is regarded highly. Not a star, but he'll be OK.

George Russell

Has used the unexpected off-time to establish himself as the man in Esports and thereby overshadow previous sim-racing hero Lando Norris - much as he did in 2018 when they raced together in F2. Super-fast, intelligent, articulate, and it's an indictment of modern F1 that such a talent's greatest motivation has been trying to beat his team-mate to 19th on the grid out of the 20-car field. He'll no doubt be doing that again this year.