The apparent biggest loser in Vettel's Ferrari divorce

"Daniel's signing underscores our determination to accelerate our progress towards the forefront of the sport. It is also a recognition of the work accomplished over the past two and a half seasons. Daniel's undoubted talent and charisma are a huge bonus and statement for the team. We will have to repay his faith in us by delivering the best car possible."

Renault Formula 1 team boss Cyril Abiteboul stated those words about Daniel Ricciardo's signing from Red Bull 21 months ago. That's not even two years.

This week has been the biggest shake-up in the F1 driver market since Renault made that very announcement in early August 2018 - which had a knock-on effect at several other squads. At the time, it was hailing the arrival of arguably the championship's best overtaker, a proven race winner seeking to join a manufacturer team - aiming for titles with a pay packet to match that shared desire.

It came at price. Not just a massive one - north of £40million for two years as disclosed during the legal wrangling between Ricciardo and his former advisor - for Ricciardo's services, but in that moment it signalled the end for Carlos Sainz Jr's time with the Enstone squad, and potentially his entire F1 career. Just 21 months. Not even two years.

Now, after Sebastian Vettel and Ferrari announced their impeding divorce, Sainz is heading to Maranello to partner Charles Leclerc and Ricciardo will replace him at McLaren.

PLUS: How Sainz went from the fringes to Ferrari in two years

The seemingly immovable spectre of the coronavirus pandemic hangs over the whole affair. It meant Vettel's contract talks ended before a racing lap had been completed in 2020, and Renault has not had a chance to show where the RS20 stacks up against its midfield rivals.

Effectively, Ricciardo has jumped ship after just a single season with the squad for which he left his long-term home: Red Bull. He's still missed a return to F1's Class A, lost a second shot at the Ferrari dream and there are many ways to cut it, but none of them seem like a good look for Renault right now.

"There's an exam coming soon enough, for him and for us," Abiteboul said of Ricciardo earlier this year, but it's been swept away, untaken.

At the time of writing, there is no news on who will replace Ricciardo at Renault, and there are already potentially bigger problems on the horizon - with the financial shock of the pandemic starting to really bite in terms of economic contraction and dreaded recession.

Ricciardo's exit - still with the delayed 2020 season to run - is a not a ringing endorsement of Renault's works F1 project. The targets announced in early 2016, when the company's return as a factory team was confirmed with a lavish launch in the Paris suburbs, have long been missed. Renault was to reach the podium in three years, but the team's last rostrum visit (as Lotus using Mercedes power) remains Romain Grosjean's third place at Spa in 2015.

The team did make progress in 2017 and particularly '18, when Sainz and Nico Hulkenberg took Renault to fourth in the constructors' championship. But it's bullish 2019 target of closing the gap to the top three F1 teams did not materialise and it ultimately slipped behind a resurgent McLaren - which had become a Renault customer and secured Sainz's services, rescuing his F1 career once it was clear Fernando Alonso would not be continuing.

Everywhere you look in this twisting tale of contracts and dreams there is a fascinating sub-plot

Judging by Autosport's assessment of the pecking order in 2020 winter testing - in a different age at Barcelona barely two months ago - Renault remains behind McLaren. But, crucially, Racing Point's controversial RP20 appears to have got ahead as well.

The coronavirus crisis has frustrated any hope of seeing where things clearly stand so far this year, as sport takes a necessary backseat while the greatest healthcare tragedy and challenge of our time plays out. But it has also caused hideous misery for the economy, with the UK likely already in a "significant recession" - per comments on Wednesday from the chancellor, Rishi Sunak - even before the full impact of the devastating lockdowns can be considered.

As a result of the last global recession - the 2008 financial crisis - four manufacturers cancelled their F1 programmes. The reasons why are familiar - major car companies either cannot afford to be splurging marketing money on racing programmes, or be seen to be doing so while laying off workers. The warnings of team losses due to the pandemic took manufacturer exits into consideration, as well as those teams that exist above all as sporting entities.

That's one thing - but Renault's F1 future was already in doubt. As far back as October last year, the company had placed it under the microscope of a major review established in the wake of former Renault-Nissan alliance boss Carlos Ghosn's arrest (and later escape).

None of this is pleasant when considering the dedicated efforts of those working at Enstone and Renault's F1 engine plant at Viry Chatillon - and none of this should undermine or belittle that hard work. The team had recognised the shortcomings of its 2019 car, and the design process weakness that meant upgrades to improve it missed the mark. It had taken steps to correct things by hiring experienced new staff and tweaking the RS20 as much as compromise allowed (had 2020 played out as expected, Renault's attention would have likely switched early to the new rules).

Indeed, the whole perception that Renault is possibly the biggest loser of F1's latest seat swap drama could be entirely wrong.

It could yet be that the RS20 is 2020's dark horse and Ricciardo has made a misstep by signing with McLaren given the same machines will be used in 2021 as a consequence of the coronavirus cost-saving measures. But at the same time, he has now allied himself with a marque (because of course Team Enstone, as opposed to Renault's works effort, has been around solidly since 1981 when it started out as Toleman) that has unblemished F1 roots going back 54 years and will return to Mercedes power next season.

Everywhere you look in this twisting tale of contracts and dreams, there is a fascinating sub-plot. For instance, Ricciardo is leaving a team that has just hired a highly-rated, and pretty proven, ace in Esteban Ocon - much as he once did after two-and-a-half seasons alongside Max Verstappen at Red Bull. To say he is running from a fight with Ocon would be doing him just as great a disservice as saying Renault's 2020 challenger is definitively behind its closest midfield rivals. But people will always try and join the figurative dots...

Taking the entirely hypothetical one step further actually brings potential positivity to Renault. By abandoning ship, Ricciardo has left a hole that needs filling before too much water rushes in. We cannot yet know if the economic squeeze will cause Renault to pull the plug, but it nevertheless has tantalising options on the horizon.

One is Vettel and another is the recently-Renault rejected Hulkenberg. But Vettel has already expressed doubts about returning to F1's midfield and it's hard to see the team making such a quick turnaround regarding Hulkenberg - although nothing can be ruled out at this stage (see Felipe Massa's reprieve at Williams in 2016/17).

And it's that world of possibility that brings us to a fascinating conclusion. A driver who is already in a redemption story and has long been vocal about making an F1 return. Fernando Alonso back at the squad with which he won his two titles - it's worth considering.

The problem is that all of his noises since leaving McLaren have centred on his competitive chances, which were supposed to have been improved by the rules reset. But this has now gone back to 2022 and there's no guarantee that Renault would be in a better position that it seems right now.

An interesting year lies ahead for Renault as Ricciardo sees out his contract. Right now, it seems deeply unimpressed with Ricciardo's decision, with Abiteboul not referencing him by name in comments following the wave of announcements on Thursday.

"In our sport, and particularly within the current extraordinary situation, reciprocated confidence, unity and commitment are, more than ever, critical values for a works team," he said - the anger unmissable.

Everything is still possible and everything could yet go wrong for everyone involved in this (so far) off-track tale. But, right now, Renault looks to have the biggest challenges to overcome.