Why Ferrari's talent bottleneck is creating its own issues

After fears the delayed start to the Formula 1 season could cause stagnation in the 2021 driver market, the recent shake-up has marked a welcome debunking of that theory.

Sebastian Vettel's surprise departure from Ferrari, the team's subsequent signing of Carlos Sainz Jr as his replacement, and Daniel Ricciardo's switch to McLaren have ensured the grid will look notably different at the start of next season.

While the knock-on effects still need time to fully unfold, they are set to impact on a number of current drivers - with Esteban Ocon's position at Renault seemingly strengthened before even starting a grand prix for his new team.

But the ramifications will also be felt down to the junior categories, where many young drivers with hopes of an F1 seat in the near future will see routes either open up or shut off.

That is especially true for those part of the Ferrari Driver Academy (FDA). Five of its members are set to race in Formula 2 this year, with returnees Mick Schumacher, Giuliano Alesi and Callum Ilott joined by star F3 graduates Robert Shwartzman and Marcus Armstrong, each determined to follow the lead of previous graduates Jules Bianchi and Charles Leclerc by reaching F1.

Ferrari's relationship with Alfa Romeo has set up a decent pathway for its juniors to move into F1 - something that was lacking prior to the rebranding of the Sauber team in 2018.

It gave Leclerc the chance to make his F1 debut that year, with Antonio Giovinazzi - a Ferrari-linked junior but not part of the FDA - following into a full-time seat upon his younger colleague's move up to Ferrari for 2019.

Two years ago, the FDA's purpose appeared to be to find a long-term replacement for Kimi Raikkonen at Ferrari. That was fulfilled upon his departure and Leclerc's appointment, but it also meant that attention shifted to Vettel.

As Ferrari looked to find its next young superstar, they would surely be moulded as an eventual replacement for the four-time world champion. And had Vettel signed a new contract, say for another two years, it would have given Ferrari the perfect amount of time to try and prepare one of its juniors for the step up.

If Sainz adjusts well to life with the team and earns an extension beyond his initial two-year deal, the chances for the juniors will seem limited

Giovinazzi would have had the time to prove himself at Alfa Romeo. Failing that, an opportunity may have been given to one of the juniors below him on the ladder to do so.

But Vettel's departure appears to have made the picture more complicated for Ferrari's juniors. The appeal of a young, fresh face to partner Leclerc in the future has diminished greatly with the appointment of Sainz, who ticks those boxes. Despite racking up 102 starts since 2015, relative to Giovinazzi's 23, he is in fact a year younger.

With Leclerc (22) and Sainz (25), Ferrari will boast its youngest driver line-up in half a century next season. If Sainz adjusts well to life with the team and earns an extension beyond his initial two-year deal, the chances for the juniors will seem limited.

Ferrari had no choice but to look outside of its own camp when replacing Vettel. The only driver with any F1 racing experience was Giovinazzi, who himself admitted it would have been too soon to make the jump up after a so-so first year with Alfa Romeo.

Ferrari has experienced a lack of real stand-out juniors bar Leclerc in the last five years, but its focus on the lower reaches of the junior ladder has now led to this sudden throng of talent in F2.

What this year's F2 season will do is define a true pecking order in the Ferrari junior system. Any title-winner will surely place pressure on Giovinazzi for the Ferrari-held seat at Alfa Romeo, and could even pique interest from Haas given its links to Maranello.

The pressure largely lies with Schumacher. His name and story gives an obvious appeal to getting him into an F1 seat, the first steps to which were taken last year with tests for both Ferrari and Alfa Romeo in Bahrain.

But his debut F2 campaign was fairly underwhelming. The experienced drivers may have stood out through the season, but Schumacher only recorded a best feature race finish of eighth, and was beaten in the championship by three rookies: Guanyu Zhou, the late Anthoine Hubert, and fellow Ferrari junior Ilott.

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Like Schumacher, Ilott and Alesi will want to use their experience to stave off the threat of Ferrari's incoming F2 rookies in their second seasons.

Added pressure will be put on Schumacher in particular by the presence of Shwartzman alongside him at Prema Racing this season. They were previously team-mates in European F3 in 2018, Shwartzman finishing third in the standings as Schumacher won the title, but took different steps last year.

Shwartzman stayed at F3 level, moving into the new FIA series that replaced GP3, and dominated en route to the title. If anyone is looking like they could follow in Leclerc's footsteps right now, it is Shwartzman (below). Going head-to-head with Schumacher in the same team will be an ideal way for Ferrari to see which of the duo could be best-placed to make the move to F1 in the near future.

If Giovinazzi does enough to stay on, it would put Ferrari in uncharted territory in managing its juniors. Should one of them win the F2 title, they would have no obvious place to go

Shwartzman's graduation to F2 was matched by Armstrong, who ended last year as runner-up to his Prema team-mate in the F3 standings. Armstrong has landed a top seat with ART Grand Prix, which took Nyck de Vries to the 2019 title, and will also hold some hopes of a title challenge even in his rookie campaign.

But should any of them take the title, will it be enough to land an F1 seat for 2021? Much of that will depend on Giovinazzi's season with Alfa Romeo. He certainly enjoyed an uplift in form towards the end of the year despite the team's struggle for performance, drawing closer to Raikkonen, but needs to maintain that in the condensed season coming up.

If Giovinazzi does enough to stay on, it would put Ferrari in uncharted territory in managing its juniors. Should one of them win the F2 title, they would have no obvious place to go. It may have no shortage of talent, but it definitely has a shortage of postings.

Ferrari's last breakout talent before Leclerc, Bianchi, had the benefit of more top-line junior categories - he raced in both GP2 and Formula Renault 3.5 - as well as a bigger F1 grid, allowing for his move to Marussia for 2013. But with fewer F1 seats and fewer series of real interest, it is now a more challenging picture.

A Leclerc-esque rise for any of the F2 drivers now seems unlikely, but Ferrari may see it as a longer-term project. It's a chance to give one of its juniors the time to build their experience and race craft should they make the step to F1, and help lift Alfa Romeo up the grid - as seems to be the intention with Giovinazzi.

There is no longer the same urgency to find a replacement for an ageing driver line-up that there was two years ago. Sainz's arrival is certainly a blow to the Ferrari juniors who had designs on replacing Vettel, but they still have time.

The challenge for them will be to peak at the right moment - just as Sainz did to secure his dream move to Maranello.