The tests Leclerc and Ferrari must pass before Hamilton's arrival

Five wins in five years is hardly the return Charles Leclerc hoped for when he embarked upon his journey with Ferrari in Formula 1. His collection of 23 pole positions has translated into victories only four times, perfectly symbolic of his tenure at the Prancing Horse.

Although he bears the responsibility for a few of those failures to convert, most have not been Leclerc’s fault. Ferrari has been plagued by a handful of false dawns, the team’s sloppy strategy calls and untimely unreliability issues serving to restrict Leclerc’s appearances on the top step of the podium.

In a 2019 season where Ferrari had flattered in testing only to deceive in the opening rounds, Leclerc had a first win denied in Bahrain by a control system glitch in the final 10 laps. His defeat to Max Verstappen in Austria that year perhaps demonstrated naivety in wheel-to-wheel combat, and it took until Belgium where he was able to take victory.

His 2020 was immediately nixed when Ferrari’s powertrains were seemingly neutered by an FIA technical directive on oil burning and, although 2021 wasn’t much more competitive, he had a chance to win in Monaco after securing pole. At least, until he binned the car on his following flyer and ended up not starting the race due to gearbox damage.

Ferrari was not winless in 2023, thanks to Carlos Sainz’s tactical mastery and Red Bull’s subdued performance in Singapore. Leclerc may feel that it should have been he who prevailed in the south-east Asian city state, but dutifully played rear gunner in the opening stages to ward off a threat from Mercedes’ George Russell. So Leclerc’s most recent win remains the 2022 Austrian Grand Prix, during a phase of the season when he appeared to be a legitimate title contender, but his fortunes waned as Red Bull’s star rose. It was another false dawn, and Leclerc had to endure it.

Crashes and hubristic strategy calls may have cost victories, but the main problem to constrain Leclerc during grands prix has lain in Ferrari’s inferior tyre management capabilities. The 2017 Formula 2 champion chalked up five poles over the course of 2023, but none lasted long into the races; Ferrari simply could not match Red Bull on race pace given the RB19’s deft touch on Pirelli rubber.

But change is in the air at Maranello.

Leclerc's best shot at a title challenge came in 2022, but either side of that his time at Ferrari has been full of frustration

Photo by: Carl Bingham / Motorsport Images

Since Fred Vasseur took the reins at the team, his desire to transform Ferrari into a championship winner has been matched by his rigorous approach to understanding where its weaknesses lie. Like his compatriot Jean Todt, who transformed a sleeping giant into F1’s premier team for half a decade, Vasseur is laying the foundations for a future title challenge. Leclerc, thanks to his new long-term contract, is part of those foundations – as is Lewis Hamilton, who will replace Sainz at the team in 2025.

PLUS: The major change Hamilton's Ferrari move could have on his F1 legacy

Ferrari and Leclerc, however, cannot simply wait for a more prosperous tomorrow. Short-term progress will lead into future success, and the team has been able to identify the traits that have held it back in recent years. Those tyre management deficiencies had to be worked on, as did the unpredictability on the approach to corners, but holding on to its latent pace in qualifying was an important target. From Leclerc’s initial assessment of the new SF-24, Ferrari has made palpable gains where it needs to.

“The first good thing is that there are no surprises,” Leclerc reported after his initial runs in testing in Bahrain with the SF-24. “Everything that we expected from this car, we got it on the real track. So that is a good thing because that helps us to develop the car in the simulator and everything seems to make sense.

"This year it’s a very different story. We know exactly where we need to improve, where are the weaknesses, the main weaknesses of this car" Charles Leclerc

“Honestly, from the first laps on the simulator, it felt like an easier car to drive. We drove with some wind, and it was similar on the track from the very first laps here and the feeling was good. We managed to be consistent straight away, and this will help the race runs.

“But driveability and competitiveness are two very different things. Last year we were struggling to be consistent because the car was just a little bit all over the place whenever there was some wind. That doesn’t mean, especially in qualifying, that we will win a lot, and that doesn’t mean anything compared to Red Bull. We still have to work a lot, and then we’ll see how competitive we are.”

The initial testing performance of Ferrari has shown that the SF-24 is far more amenable than its predecessor, with less motion needed at the wheel to coax the car around the corners. If Ferrari has married that with outright pace, this benefits Leclerc hugely.

One of the best qualifiers in F1, Leclerc was able to keep it together on a single lap more often than not over 2023, with Miami the main example of his occasional tendency to overdrive and suffer the consequences when he hurled his car into the Turn 7 wall. A more stable platform should ensure that errors like this are far rarer. In that event, if Ferrari can keep Red Bull on its toes in qualifying, then the developments made over the winter should allow it to stay better in touch over a full race distance.

Early signs from testing pointed to Ferrari having solved its key weakness with its 2024 car

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Leclerc cited “a step forward in terms of tyre management”, adding that the performance of the old car on fresh, soft tyres on Saturdays masked some of the more inherent issues of its previous challenger. Where Red Bull – particularly Verstappen – could maintain its pace over the course of a race stint, Ferrari tended to drop more dramatically as tyre wear affected the balance over the course of a race.

Development of the new car remains paramount to not only fully curing those issues, but advancing Ferrari’s overtures towards more consistent race victories. According to Leclerc, the SF-24 offers very clear clues towards its project development path and in mitigating its weaknesses.

“I remember last year I finished the test and it was very, very difficult to understand in which direction to develop because the car was just so inconsistent,” he reflected. “It was very difficult to understand what were the main weaknesses. This year it’s a very different story. We know exactly where we need to improve, where are the weaknesses, the main weaknesses of this car. And this gives us a bit more hope for the development of the car.”

Ranked: The F1 teams on 2024 pre-season testing form

Under Vasseur, Ferrari appears to be in the ascendancy. Indeed, Leclerc has been instilled with enough belief to extend his contract with the Italian squad on a multi-year basis. He’s grown at the team from an impressive sophomore F1 driver with a penchant for the occasional hefty crash into a formidable racer with an irrepressible turn of speed. Ferrari had enough faith in him at the start of his F1 career to dispose of its proclivity to sign more experienced drivers, and Leclerc is returning the favour in backing its ambition to fight for titles.

It’s very unlikely that 2024 will be the year in which Leclerc can have the platform to deliver on his wealth of talent and force his way into a title fight, since Red Bull has moved the game on with its RB20 – much to the dismay of those hoping for a closer battle at the front. What he should have this year is a far more consistent car at his disposal, one that can grant opportunities to capitalise should Ferrari’s rivals falter.

In that, he has the chance to ensure that he continues to improve and take a step towards his driving peak. A significant challenge awaits in 2025, with Hamilton alongside him, and the Briton’s star power will draw Ferrari’s attention towards him. Leclerc must ensure that he uses 2024 to keep the team’s gaze fixed firmly upon him and prove that, when measured against a seven-time world champion, he firmly remains the top dog at the team.

If he can fix his waning pole-to-win conversion rate in the process, then his season can be deemed a qualified success.

With Hamilton heading to Ferrari, Sainz had to make way

Photo by: Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images

Sainz’s Ferrari swansong

When Hamilton threw a depth charge into F1’s ‘silly season’ and blew everyone out of the water with his Ferrari move for 2025, it came at Sainz’s expense. Without any history as a Ferrari junior or the pull of multiple world titles, the Spaniard was always going to be the more dispensable driver, even though he’s often matched Leclerc over their three-year tenure as team-mates so far.

Thanks to his two race wins and strong form at Ferrari, Sainz is likely to be an in-demand option for many of the teams with vacant seats for next season, and there’s still ample opportunity to put himself in the shop window for one of the better drives available.

His efforts in 2023 have helpfully showcased his best attributes, and his Singapore surprise last year was a magnificent display of anticipation and awareness of the cars around him. Knowing that the Mercedes duo was a significant threat on fresher tyres in the latter stages of the race, Sainz figured that he had a better chance of staying out in front if Lando Norris could act as a breakwater. So he dragged his former McLaren team-mate with him in the DRS tow and claimed the spoils thereafter.

Sainz will expect to push Leclerc again in 2024, even if he falls a tenth or two shy in outright pace, but should remain a good foil versus his more mercurial team-mate

Sainz’s efforts in Monza to retain the lead, despite the looming inevitability of the Red Bulls behind him, also showcased his strengths. A post-summer upgrade to the floor suited Sainz more than it did Leclerc, allowing him to lead the charge in the early stages of the season’s second half. It didn’t last when the balance shifted towards Leclerc’s tastes, but it showed what Sainz has in his locker if a car is built to his preferences.

He’ll expect to push Leclerc again in 2024, even if he falls a tenth or two shy in outright pace, but should remain a good foil versus his more mercurial team-mate. Off track, he’s got some big decisions to make about his future, and progress with the ongoing 2026 engine regulations will undoubtedly play a big role in his post-Ferrari career.

Where will Sainz head to from 2025?

Photo by: Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images