The 'surprise' Mercedes time that puts F1's victory fight back on a knife-edge in France

Formula 1’s recent street circuit sojourn was not kind to Mercedes.  Although Valtteri Bottas was in podium contention in Monaco and Lewis Hamilton was within one accidental finger-brush of taking an unlikely victory in Baku, Red Bull had the clear upper hand.

As the Black Arrows drivers struggled to find tyre temperature, Max Verstappen should’ve taken two consecutive victories to follow his deja vu defeat in Spain (even if he had some assistance with Charles Leclerc’s DNS in Monaco). Red Bull gaining points as its rival toiled was an important part of the last two races, as Mercedes was always predicted to return to form at this weekend’s French Grand Prix because of Paul Ricard’s ‘normal’ nature – a purpose-built venue, filled with medium and high-speed turns.

And, based on what F1 saw in the opening two practice sessions in France on Friday, that is exactly what has happened.

Now that for Mercedes “getting a single lap out of the tyres has seemed easier than it was in Baku or Monaco”, according to team trackside engineering director Andrew Shovlin, the implication is that its tyre warm-up woes are not so much of a factor this weekend. And that propels the team back in a victory battle with Red Bull that is once again too close to call at this stage.

Although Bottas, who topped FP1, said he was quickly “confident with the car” and feels he can “trust the car” better compared to Baku, it is understood that neither Mercedes driver was totally happy with how their W12s were handling. This particularly seemed to be the case for Lewis Hamilton, who at one point in FP2 (where the times were slower than in 2019 due to a combination of high winds and parts of the track having been resurfaced ahead of this event) reported “there’s something not right with the car”.

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12

Photo by: Charles Coates / Motorsport Images

Autosport understands that Hamilton felt his car was behaving inconsistently and that when he was informed he’d set FP2’s third fastest time (overall team order, below) the world champion was surprised to find himself so far up the order. That was a big difference compared to Baku, where the Mercedes drivers’ handling concerns were reflected in lowly practice positions, until Hamilton made a breakthrough late in FP3.

Overall FP2 order

In France though, GPS trace data seen by Autosport suggests that Hamilton was actually tracking Verstappen in terms of their best times on the soft tyres in FP2 – the 0.253s difference to the Dutchman, which he enjoyed to top the session on a 1m32.872s, apparently down to the Red Bull running in a higher engine mode worth roughly that amount of time.

When comparing the best laps of the two Mercedes drivers against Verstappen, Hamilton and Bottas apparently generally just had the edge in the higher-speed corners

Bottas, who set his best lap in FP2 on the medium tyres, was apparently also running in a higher power mode compared to both Verstappen and Hamilton, which is thought to have gained him around 0.5s on that eye-catching run early in the second one-hour session.

This perhaps explains why Bottas did not go faster with the soft tyres, as his engine was apparently turned to a different engine mode for that effort, but in any case the Finn felt the best of the red-walled tyre life was gone by the time he reached the third sector. This could be seen in his 0.338s loss to his personal best by the time he reached the finish line.

When comparing the best laps of the two Mercedes drivers against Verstappen – and with all the usual practice caveats applying, including the already discussed engine mode differences – Hamilton and Bottas apparently generally just had the edge in the higher-speed corners.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Drew Gibson / Motorsport Images

The data seen by Autosport suggests that Verstappen was able to go faster through the apex at the Turn 1 left, before the Mercedes drivers were quicker at the Turn 2 fast right – and things were nip and tuck between the teams at Turns 3, 8 and 12, although Mercedes seemingly held the advantage through Turns 10 and 11.

Just as the overall pace and things corner-to-corner appear to be incredibly close between Mercedes and Red Bull at this stage, the same essentially looks to be true in the long runs.

Medium tyre averages

On the medium tyre, set to be a critical race compound given the hard rubber is likely to be best for the race, Mercedes leads the way in the averages. But the team is wary that it lost time to Red Bull during the middle of Hamilton's run on this compound, even if Bottas's ended up being best average overall (it was also two laps shorter than the 10 Hamilton and Verstappen both completed on the mediums).

Traffic was a problem for all teams, which may well explain why Hamilton was tracked running offset and slower compared to Verstappen on his long run, having started off very close, but there was one piece of big encouragement for Mercedes. This is that Hamilton set his fastest lap right at the end of his 10-lap stint, edging out Verstappen at this point.

This suggests Mercedes is very much in play again when it comes to race runs and is possibly a shade stronger at this stage. After all, being able to suddenly go quicker after several laps also likely reflects the traffic problem and Hamilton generally feeling his car was handling inconsistently.

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

“It was quite a struggle out there, probably for everyone,” the world champion said after FP2. “I don't know if it's the track surface, the temperature or these inflated tyres – the pressures are higher than ever before – but we were all sliding around out there. We'll be doing a lot of analysis tonight with the hope that it's better for tomorrow, but the times don't look terrible and we're in the battle, so that's positive.

“The hard compound is the better-feeling tyre, it felt heavy-duty which is important with the temperatures here [temperatures reached 28°C air and 48°C track in FP2]. The softer you go the worse it feels, so I imagine the hard tyre will be the one everyone wants to get onto in the race on Sunday.”

Verstappen feels the strong winds were a particular problem in terms of catching out drivers on Friday, but the same applies to the Mercedes drivers too, and probably adds to the explanation of their handling inconsistencies

When it comes to how the tyres perform in the race, and with the consideration that Pirelli has raised the pressures for the rear tyres by 2psi (to 21.5psi) following its investigation into the Baku blowouts, there’s a suggestion that blistering is likely to be a significant concern for the teams.

When the tyre pressures were raised ahead of the 70th Anniversary GP (by 2psi for the fronts and and 1psi for the rears) following the 2020 British GP tyre failures, this was something that hurt Mercedes and played a part in Verstappen’s famous victory that day last August.

Now though, Red Bull possesses a package that is, on average, level-pegging with Mercedes at the front of the field. So that’s double encouragement for the team, which is looking to secure a hat-trick of victories for the first time since the end of 2013.

But things didn’t start wonderfully for Red Bull today, as Verstappen ended up third and 0.432s adrift of Bottas in FP1. But he was happy with set-up changes made after that session, and with further alterations made early in FP2.

Verstappen feels the strong winds were a particular problem in terms of catching out drivers on Friday – a factor that ended up costing him in Portugal and will be concerning with things so close against his title rival. But then, the same applies to the Mercedes drivers too, and probably adds to the explanation of their handling inconsistencies.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Charles Coates / Motorsport Images

“I think overall it’s been a good end to the day and we improved quite well,” said Verstappen. “I wasn’t entirely happy in FP1 and even at the start of FP2, but on the second set of tyres this afternoon the car felt a lot better and a lot more connected.

“It’s still really difficult around here as the track is so open and it’s quite windy which means it isn’t always easy to nail the lap. The wind is also quite gusty so one lap it feels alright and the next lap it can increase, which means it’s not always easy to judge your mid-corner speeds, but everyone has to deal with the same thing.

“It’s difficult to say where we will be tomorrow and you never know what people will find overnight but the long runs also seemed decent so for sure I expect it to be very tight and it definitely won’t be easy.”

Red Bull also may be concerned to have had Sergio Perez languishing down in P12 in the final FP2 order, but then the Mexican driver explained he “got a pretty bad run of traffic today so it probably looks worse than it actually is on the time sheets” and reckons “we look to be there or thereabouts and Max had a good day on pace”.

Something that was concerning both of F1’s leading teams today was the presence of the large, yellow sausage kerbs running almost perpendicular to the main kerbs at the exit of the Turn 2 right.

In FP1, Bottas clattered over the yellow kerbs and did what Mercedes now estimates was tens of thousands of pounds worth of damage to his front wing – chiefly the main plane and endplate – and his floor. In FP2, Verstappen lost part of the left side of his front wing by running over the same kerbs, with Red Bull sporting director Jonathan Wheatley soon asking F1 race director Michael Masi for the part to be returned as the team is apparently low on spares following the Baku crash.

Wheatley later asked if the FIA would consider altering the kerbs considering the amount of damage done as a result of a small error to end up out wide, something his Mercedes counterpart, Ron Meadows, had done during FP1.

Pierre Gasly, AlphaTauri AT02

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Another noisy saga staying in the headlines so far in this weekend’s event concerns the chassis swap between the Mercedes drivers.

The team has done this with the four chassis produced since the start of 2020 and are still available to use now – considering the unique carryover requirements for this season – and to make sure it evens out parts usage between its two drivers as part of a rotation plan.

This means Bottas is now running the higher-mileage #6 chassis that his team-mate had last time out, while Hamilton is in the lower-mileage #4 that Bottas ran in Azerbaijan and used to nearly score a podium in Monaco. Incidentally, that chassis is the one Hamilton took to victory in the 2020 Spanish GP and the heavily damaged #5 chassis that Bottas was running during his crash at Imola with George Russell is expected to re-enter service at Mercedes later this season as the rotation plan continues.

Hamilton did not feel the chassis swap was playing a part in his deficit to Bottas in both sessions on Friday – with the likely reasons for the FP2 difference outlined above – as he said a chassis swap resulting in performance swings between drivers only happened "very rarely". But if he did want to change to a different chassis entirely, it is understood that Mercedes could build up its #3 chassis – but this is not thought to be a likely outcome at this stage.

Alpine should be encouraged by its average time on the mediums given its longer stint length than most of its midfield rivals, but Alpine was tracked running 0.364s slower on average compared to Ferrari on the critical hard tyres during the race data gathering late in FP2, albeit on a stint that lasted three laps longer

Behind F1’s top two squads today came the usual fierce fight to be best-of-the-rest, with Ferrari’s interloper status on the two street tracks just gone likely to remain such an aberration.

In fact, in France on Friday, it was the Alpine squad that recorded particularly impressive results on home soil, with Fernando Alonso putting the team third fastest overall in FP2, with the session’s fourth fastest time.

Alpine, which reckons Paul Ricard’s “more conventional layout” suits the A521 package better than the street tracks F1 has just left – per team racing director Davide Brivio – trialled small upgrades in FP1.

Fernando Alonso, Alpine A521, Lando Norris, McLaren MCL35M

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

The team should also be encouraged by its average time on the mediums (above) given its longer stint length than most of its midfield rivals, and particularly versus Ferrari (which Leclerc put fourth in the teams’ order in FP2). But Alpine was tracked running 0.364s slower on average compared to Ferrari on the critical hard tyres during the race data gathering late in FP2, albeit on a stint that lasted three laps longer (10 for Alpine versus seven for Ferrari).

The race’s likely tyre strategy should have the leading teams attempting to get through Q2 on the mediums – as was the norm before the two street events and occurred here with many teams in 2019 – although the 0.6s pace difference to the softs could yet throw in some uncertainty. But if Red Bull and Mercedes get through on the mediums, they will likely swap then out for hards at one planned pitstop.

But it will be intriguing to see how the tyre higher pressures and possible blistering consideration plays out come Sunday, when it is also possible there will be rain around – which could yet add an unforeseen complication to unbalance F1’s returned knife-edge victory battle.

Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes W12

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images