The surprise biggest indicator of Ferrari's 2022 F1 points downfall

For anyone fortunate enough to have visited, it’s rather hard not to constantly miss Melbourne. And when he looks back to Formula 1’s first race in the iconic Australian city for three years, that really applies to 2022 Melbourne winner Charles Leclerc.

The Ferrari driver was dominant on a weekend where Red Bull couldn’t match its red rival on outright pace or tyre performance and its star ultimately stopped at the side of the track. That put Leclerc 46 points clear of Max Verstappen and in prime position for first title glory if he and Ferrari could keep it up. As we now know, neither could.

PLUS: How decisions Ferrari aced and Red Bull regretted led to Leclerc’s Melbourne masterclass

Verstappen is romping to his own double title glory and can do so as early as next weekend’s first F1 race in Singapore for three years. Verstappen does, however, need Leclerc to finish down the order, not just trail as at Monza. But it’s not too much to suggest Ferrari is reeling given how far it has fallen – heads can drop and more misery can be added.

But we can’t know what will happen in Singapore just yet, so here it’s worth looking back again at Melbourne. This is because there’s a pertinent point to one of the stories to watch to the campaign’s close, now that Red Bull has all but sealed the titles. Although Leclerc led Verstappen by 46 points leaving Australia, there was a surprise driver sitting closest in the standings having stood on an F1 podium at the end of an actual race for the first time: George Russell.

The Briton was certain to fall away from that position as the season progressed and Mercedes continued to struggle with fixing the W13’s fundamental flaws, which is what made Russell’s points total after three races so surprising. But now it has engineered its way to 13 podiums and a first F1 career pole for Russell in Budapest, this, allied with Ferrari’s own unexpected flaws and Sergio Perez continuing to underwhelm against Verstappen, means Russell has a real shot at finishing as 2022 runner-up.

This, perhaps more than anything else, shows just how far Leclerc and his squad have fallen.

Having been unable to get near Ferrari in the early stages of the season, Russell and Mercedes have frequently challenged in recent races

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

The Mercedes was porpoising so dramatically in Bahrain that Russell and Hamilton were struggling to keep their feet fully on the pedals at points. Straights, corners – it was a nightmare. And the situation came close to injuring both – most notably (and the long-term health impact of such repeated… err, impacts can’t be known at this stage either) at Imola and Baku respectively.

Now, the Silver Arrows squad has got to the point competitively where it can trial new parts to chase downforce and has upgraded its simulation tools (a surprise early-2022 problem) to try and pinpoint where these may get close to triggering porpoising again.

On Russell’s chances of surpassing the current 16-point gap to Leclerc to trail only Verstappen, his consistency in race positions is naturally the headline takeaway. Only his Abbey crash at the British Grand prix mars that remarkable run of 15 top five places from 16 races.

At Ferrari, its strategic calls at Zandvoort and particularly Monza were spot on. Verstappen just had Leclerc beaten in any case. So, perhaps the bigger worry for the Scuderia will be its mid-season reliability woes returning when the latest power unit parts reach the end of their lives come the contest’s conclusion.

Mercedes is seemingly happy to have Russell and not just Lewis Hamilton evaluate critical new parts – such as the new floor he trialled at Spa. Helping Mercedes develop a package was something Russell was really keen to get involved with after leaving Williams

Not running them as hard with Verstappen out of reach will surely be a consideration if Ferrari at least wants to consolidate Leclerc’s second place. Now that the RB18 is at the minimum weight limit and Perez can’t start weekends so strongly because it has been engineered away from his set-up preferences also point to a return to his early season form being unlikely.

PLUS: Why Perez’s new-era F1 promise has deteriorated into disappointment

So, Mercedes has a chance. This is particularly the case now the high-speed, low-downforce tracks have passed. But its current happiness at this will only be sustained if it has fully moved on from the bump-riding problems that hurt it in Monaco and Baku, with Singapore and Austin upcoming.

The team is also seemingly happy to have Russell and not just Lewis Hamilton evaluate critical new parts – such as the new floor he trialled at Spa. Helping Mercedes develop a package was something Russell was really keen to get involved with after leaving Williams – where his precise technical feedback and work ethic was prized.

He has had to adapt to the sheer scale of equipment and skills available at a top modern squad compared to the smaller one where he began life in the championship, but Russell is now clearly settled and thriving. That can be seen off-track with his impressive leadership as a Grand Prix Drivers’ Association director. Or even his charming support of Daniel Ricciardo by wearing the Australian driver’s merchandise at Zandvoort following his effective sacking at McLaren over the summer.

Russell has applied himself to helping Mercedes recover from its difficult start to the season

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

Perhaps the main criticism of Russell’s public utterings are his sometimes over-the-top radio messages when clearly in the wrong in overtakes – such as on Perez and Leclerc at Paul Ricard and Monza respectively. But this is, of course, all part of the game…

At the same time too, if Mercedes is to grab what would still be a surprise first victory of 2022 given Red Bull’s supreme position and Ferrari having better one-lap pace, it seems most likely that Hamilton will be the one to take it.

As good as Russell has been this season, Hamilton’s relentless charges and tyre management mastery remain top drawer. The elder Briton’s issue is the major wheel-to-wheel errors that have crept in in recent years. Otherwise, Hamilton still really has ‘it’. And he leads the intra-Mercedes qualifying battle 9-6 to boot.

Race circumstances such as the timing of the second safety car in that Melbourne race have also flattered Russell and at the same time hurt Hamilton’s results. And it’s worth remembering that Mercedes had Hamilton doing the bulk of the major set-up experiments to cure the porpoising through the early rounds. This correspondingly hurt his qualifying form through lowered confidence levels and combined with Mercedes' now years-old issue with tyre warm-up for flying laps.

But Russell’s start to life at Mercedes has been brilliant by any measure. The current 35-point gap between him and Hamilton means he seems most likely to score a shock 2022 runner-up result. Although, mathematically, the seven-time world champion can’t be discounted just yet.

The problem for Hamilton’s challenge is that it’s the same as Russell’s – he’s vying for scraps Red Bull (and to a lesser extent Ferrari) let fall even with Mercedes’ performance gains. So, he has more to do from the same few opportunities given Verstappen is currently eying breaking records on multiple victory tally fronts.

PLUS: Why Verstappen breaking F1's wins in a season record would be a unique yet misleading feat

However the scrap for the 2022 runner-up spot ends, we can finally reflect on two things. Mercedes’ poor start to the new ground effect era no doubt aided Russell’s start with the team compared to being in the glare of an immediate title fight as Valtteri Bottas was in 2017.

So if, as it is considering, a wholesale change of car concept catapults Mercedes back into title contending in 2023 then the pressure will be on to prove his results this season were just the start of a famous story, not the high-point.

Could Russell end the year as Verstappen's closest challenger in the points?

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images