The seven-race streak in which Leclerc usurped Vettel

Numbers don't lie, right? Charles Leclerc is now the lead Ferrari Formula 1 driver in the 2019 standings and is therefore the number one in the pecking order at the team, displacing Sebastian Vettel.

The method is too simple, but the conclusion is accurate.

Leclerc's back-to-back wins in Belgium and Italy helped him overhaul Vettel for fourth place in the drivers' standings, and his Monza success wrote him a place in Tifosi folklore. Both triumphs jarred with two poor weekends for Vettel. While Leclerc's season reached a new peak at Monza, Vettel's hit a new low.

This clash of fortunes was no coincidence. It would have been impossible to specifically predict that Leclerc would win in feisty fashion in the same race that Vettel lost his head again, but Monza was largely in keeping with how their seasons have developed.

Ex-Ferrari technical director Ross Brawn believes it is crucial for Ferrari's 2020 efforts that Vettel's confidence is rebuilt. But as Edd Straw eloquently argued, Vettel's Ferrari dream is effectively over. So, it is time to explore how Leclerc is taking advantage of that, and has proven he has ousted Vettel as the number one in the garage.

The key piece of evidence for this is a wide sample set of races, specifically, the middle third of the F1 season. During that run of seven grands prix, from France to Italy, Leclerc's form was quite stunning: two wins, five podiums in total, three poles and 110 points. Remove Ferrari's qualifying failure in Germany, where Leclerc was poised to score another pole, and the numbers would be even more impressive.

Lewis Hamilton (who else?) is the only driver who trumps Leclerc across those seven races, but only just. The championship leader has three wins, five podiums in total and two poles - amounting to 122 points.

Separating the championship into any arbitrary chunk can be largely useless (although still more relevant than our summer fun of reimagining the 2019 season from Ferrari's perspective). Context is key to making smaller fragments of a bigger championship picture relevant.

So, what helps make this run of seven races relevant is that this appears to represent the turning point in Ferrari's season, internally at least. Leclerc and Vettel swapped roles during the first seven races, each more competitive at different times, with neither establishing a real edge - which was impressive, considering Leclerc was starting his second year in F1 and getting used to life at Ferrari.

Since France, though, Leclerc has come into his own. He has outqualified Vettel seven races in a row now, has as many wins as Vettel has podiums in that seven-race run, and outscored him by 41 points. Forty-one. And that spell includes Leclerc's crash in Germany and Vettel's fortuitous second place at the same event.

High-pressure moments are the making of Leclerc almost as much as they seem to be the undoing of Vettel

A quick look at their average qualifying and finishing positions in this run completes the picture. Excluding Germany (both drivers were hit by reliability problems) and Austria for Vettel (he failed to take part in Q3 there), Leclerc is more than two grid positions better off over the past seven races. His average starting position is 2.17. Vettel's is 4.8...

The races make a fractionally better picture for Vettel: Leclerc averages 4.43, Vettel 6.71. But Leclerc's is skewed massively by his crash in Germany. Eliminate that and his average finishing position rises to 2.33. Vettel's is only 3.6 if you exclude both his mistakes in Britain (where he shunted into the back of Max Verstappen) and Italy.

Races like Hungary, where Vettel had superior tyre management and muscled past Leclerc late-on, showed that Vettel is far from a busted flush. But one would expect the reverse to be true this season: Vettel generally having the advantage and Leclerc ruffling feathers every now and then.

What we've seen in the past seven races is Leclerc truly establishing himself as Ferrari's lead force. He has kickstarted serious momentum and sustained it over a significant sample set of races, through different circumstances.

More importantly, he has thrived as the pressure has increased: earning a first F1 win with a five-time world champion rapidly approaching at Spa was a cakewalk compared to withstanding more than 40 laps of insane pressure at Monza, in front of a raucous crowd.

Such high-pressure moments are the making of Leclerc almost as much as they seem to be the undoing of Vettel. That is a significant argument in Leclerc's favour in the context of predicting whether he could stomach a future title battle.

It is worth noting how easily things could have changed. Leclerc ran off wide at a relatively pressure-free moment in Belgium, and let Hamilton launch an attack in Italy after a mistake into the chicane. When Vettel made a similar mistake while leading in Canada, even his post-race antics could not distract from the persecution he faced as a result of another error.

But the simple and key difference is that Leclerc still won. Twice. When Vettel errs, he tends to wreck his race, or at least his victory chances. And Leclerc's errors have come under mounting pressure and stress, while most of Vettel's in the past 15 months have been unforced or during relatively typical battles. Even at their worst, Leclerc is better. And as the saying goes, you win titles on your bad days...

Encouragingly for Leclerc, his bad days - the crash in Azerbaijan qualifying, or in the race in Monaco - have got fewer and fewer as the season has progressed. That is an indication of his rapid development within Ferrari: whether that be in terms of emotional control, qualifying approach, more aggressive driving or tyre management. Monza proved Vettel is still prone to major, unforced mistakes.

The bad days are important but the good days are a driver's advertising board. From the start of the season, Canada being the main exception, Leclerc has been more effective when the Ferrari has been at its most competitive. Now, twice in a row, he's delivered when the chance was there. And the wider trend indicates a clear Leclerc advantage now exists.

It is not without significance that the seven races that prove Leclerc should displace Vettel within Ferrari's pecking order began with the first race after Vettel threw away victory in Canada.

By this point, Leclerc had recognised he had a qualifying weakness, and he therefore kickstarted his current one-lap superiority over Vettel. But he had also got back on the podium in Canada after crashing out in Monaco. Leclerc's ability to bounce back from disappointment or difficulty has always been one of his strong suits, and a mark of impressive mental strength.

Ferrari should have the same confidence that Leclerc possesses

By contrast, Vettel's biggest disappointment, his error and penalty in Canada, has been followed by the fallow seven-race period discussed here.

Six months ago, Ferrari team principal Mattia Binotto said the squad viewed Vettel as its "guide" to the title. As a result, Vettel went into the season expecting to be de facto number one when the situation demanded it. Binotto's logic was justified, but his faith, it turns out, was not.

Leclerc, on the other hand, accepted Ferrari's stance given his newcomer status within the team and considered it his "job" to change Binotto's mind. Although the season is not over, Leclerc must at least be on the brink of succeeding in that achievement.

It is true that, similar to Vettel's four world titles meaning little in terms of his on-track performance now, Leclerc's stellar 2019 does not guarantee a similarly stellar '20. That is especially true if his circumstances change, and he shoulders the burden of Ferrari's challenge - even though the mounting evidence suggests he would handle that situation well, or, at least, no worse than Vettel.

But as Leclerc rightly pointed out after his first win, if he did not believe he was ready for the title he should not be in the seat. Ferrari should have the same confidence that its driver possesses.

There is little more Leclerc can do to justify it.