The Ferrari problem hidden by Leclerc's Bahrain failure

Ferrari's Bahrain Grand Prix was as close to worst-case scenario as the team is likely to suffer in Formula 1 this season. Disbelief must have descended on the pitwall when Sebastian Vettel spun while fighting Lewis Hamilton, in a grim replay of Vettel's many mistakes in battle last year.

One can only imagine the gut-wrenching, heart-sinking feeling that made Ferrari's despond even deeper when Charles Leclerc first reported the engine problem that eventually cost him victory.

Yet that loss has partly protected Ferrari from a dilemma. The shock of Leclerc's late defeat, the adulation and commiseration that flowed his way in the aftermath, and the inquest into the lost cylinder that deprived the 21-year old of a richly deserved first win in F1 has masked a problem that would have been harshly exposed had he won.

For Leclerc was utterly brilliant in Bahrain and Vettel, the man Ferrari started the season counting on to win the world title, was not.

Ferrari team principal Mattia Binotto is a very intelligent man and he will surely have considered that his very logical plan for 2019 may need revision. Vettel, the ultra-experienced, four-time world champion with four years of experience at Ferrari, was meant to be the team leader. He was the map with which Ferrari would find its way back to title glory. Leclerc would by no means be a mere bystander in that journey, but he would initially be little more than a passenger.

Even Leclerc had acknowledged his inexperience marked him out as a nominal number two at the start of the season. So, what does Ferrari do now Vettel has yet again shown his major flaw in wheel-to-wheel combat against long-time rival Hamilton, while Leclerc has proven he's already capable of not just being faster than Vettel, but dealing with the pressure of being Ferrari's focal point?

Binotto said before the season started that he was keen to have the "problem of having two drivers to manage among the top positions". While Leclerc's class has been evident for some time, even Binotto and his most loyal supporters within Ferrari could not have expected Leclerc to produce such an emphatic statement of intent so early on.

"He was an outlier all weekend," said Hamilton after the race. "Even to his team-mate. He was so much faster than his team-mate all weekend, so he has so many positives to take from it, and we have a lot of work to do to try and keep up with him."

Ferrari was nowhere in Australia, so Bahrain was its first chance to take a pole and win. Leclerc was the man who took pole. Leclerc was the man who should have won. Footage with Ferrari team radio that emerged after the race also seemed to indicate that Leclerc was so much quicker he even defied an instruction from Ferrari to stay behind his team-mate for two laps...

In a way, a Leclerc victory, coupled with the big hit to the confidence in Vettel's ability to string it together, would have been a nightmare for Ferrari.

What the hell does it do when the man it was counting on for the title looks no less fragile than before, and the man looking quickest so far is inexperienced and potentially too risky a bet?

Just because Leclerc starred in Bahrain does not mean he will be without fault for the rest of the season

If you take Bahrain as an isolated race, this seems like a wild extrapolation. But consider it in the context of the past 12 months for both Leclerc and Vettel, and it is indicative of a bigger trend.

Vettel has a happier team and he seems happier within it. In Bahrain, Ferrari's car was better than Mercedes'. Despite these fundamentally different external factors to last year, the outcome was the same costly mistake. The common denominator is Vettel.

Binotto did not want to talk about mistakes after the race. He talked about the need for drivers to push to the limit to produce results, and argued that this is what Vettel was doing.

True enough, but it is not unreasonable to highlight the significance of Vettel's error. Ferrari did cost Leclerc his first victory, but Vettel must take responsibility for Ferrari not winning the Bahrain GP. He should have been second, behind Leclerc, when the problem struck. It should not have been Hamilton and Mercedes picking up the pieces, and scoring a shock one-two and establishing a 39-point lead in the constructors' championship.

For reference, it took Mercedes 15 races to build such a margin last year. Vettel played a major role in Ferrari's 2018 title capitulation and he only needs one or two days like Sunday in Bahrain to cause similar problems this year.

Leclerc, by contrast, is a star that keeps rising. And unlike Vettel, he was excellent in battle. It was his skill in combat that enabled him to wrest back control of the race after fluffing his start.

Vettel has been guilty of letting emotion get the better of him in the past, but Leclerc looked ice-cool when the pressure was on. Surely that contrast will not go unnoticed at Ferrari.

Just because Leclerc starred in Bahrain doesn't mean he will be without fault for the rest of the season. It would be amazing if he goes the year without costing himself and Ferrari points, and his inexperience means it's far too early to throw the team's weight behind him. But what happened last weekend should still serve as a warning shot to Vettel, especially as Leclerc said in Australia his job this year is to turn any Ferrari favouritism around so that he was the one benefiting in 50/50 scenarios.

Bahrain was a big step towards convincing Ferrari that could be the best way to go, but inevitably Leclerc will need more races like that to swing the team his way. Leclerc can do this. It is rooted in the trait Vettel should fear the most.

Diligent self-analysis helped Leclerc turn around a tough start to his rookie F1 season last year with Sauber. He held his hands up for trying to control the strategy in Bahrain a year ago and assessed how his car set-up and driving style needed to change to help adapt better from Formula 2.

Once he got on top of that, Leclerc continued to improve. He started to string the phases of qualifying together better. That set him up for more eye-catching race performances, where his racecraft shone. It was a huge part of what earned him his swift Ferrari graduation. It has not stopped since.

"I was not satisfied with myself after Melbourne, I did quite a lot of mistakes, especially in Q3 when I had to put the lap together," said Leclerc in Bahrain. "I didn't here. So, I'm happy. In the race, also I felt like today I've done a very good job compared with Melbourne, where again I did quite a bit of mistakes.

"There's still a lot to improve, and on that I will work. I always tend to focus always on the negatives of a weekend on my side..."

Bahrain had a very obvious negative for Leclerc but even he would struggle to find a way to take responsibility for that. Even so, the start was evidently poor, he was bullied on the opening lap and just about got away with a lock-up that could have earned him a puncture from Hamilton's front wing.

As the victor in 52 grands prix and winner of four consecutive world titles, Vettel is no mug

Hamilton was Leclerc's biggest supporter after the race, though, and among his many comments was a reference to Leclerc having "a beautiful, bright future ahead of him, so this will only make him stronger".

The prospect of Leclerc getting stronger than he showed in Bahrain should worry all his rivals, and Vettel will be aware that last weekend will not be Leclerc's peak. That begs two questions. If Vettel cannot live with him now, what chance does he have as Leclerc improves? And how does that change the route Ferrari had charted back to the promised land of winning F1 championships again?

These could simply be answered by Vettel getting on top of the struggles he has had with the SF90 since pre-season testing ended. That would revive his confidence, and give Ferrari reason to stick to the original plan. Plus the engine problem that prevented Leclerc winning, and sitting on the coat tails of the Mercedes duo in the championship, has given Ferrari a brief stay of execution in dealing with this problem.

Leclerc is the lead driver in the points but only four ahead of Vettel, who now has a chance to swiftly redress the balance. Victory in China, for example, and the status quo is preserved. It is entirely possible.

As the victor in 52 grands prix and winner of four consecutive world titles, Vettel is no mug. You can interpret his errors and lack of championship success at Ferrari in many legitimate ways, but concluding that his Red Bull achievements were sheer fortune is not one of them.

That said, Bahrain indicates he has not banished the ghosts of 2018 and with Leclerc alongside him and not Kimi Raikkonen, Vettel will be ruthlessly exposed by such shortcomings.

The swings in performance from Australia to Bahrain suggest the title battle will be an ultra-tight affair as the balance of power shifts between Mercedes and Ferrari.

Ferrari hasn't given up on Vettel or lost faith in him, but Vettel can ill afford to slip now. Otherwise he risks the team considering him an unreliable title shot, and backing the right driver could make or break Ferrari's season.

Vettel knows his status as the team's talisman is in the balance. After Bahrain, the pressure from Leclerc is greater than ever.