The evidence that Hamilton will be wrong about Suzuka

After taking victory in the previous race in Russia, Lewis Hamilton was in an enthusiastic mood about the prospect of an "awesome" and unpredictable battle for glory at this weekend's Japanese Grand Prix.

"Suzuka is incredible, it's one of the most exciting parts of the year, and now so more than ever before because you've got three solid, incredibly fast teams, pushing each other and having the potential to win a race," he said.

"I have no idea who is going to be quickest there. At the moment, Ferrari are quite dominant but maybe it will suit our car a little bit more, who knows? Or the Red Bull, maybe. It's exciting to go there because that's a serious driver's track, one of the best ones of the whole year. I just hope that we get to have a good race there."

Hamilton's excitement stemmed from the unpredictable nature of the top order over recent races. Mercedes probably still has the all-round strongest package, but recent updates have transformed Ferrari's car into much more than a straightline bullet, while Red Bull's prevailing strength in medium speed corners - coupled with Honda's latest 'Spec 4' engine, allied to a new experimental fuel from ExxonMobil - means they cannot be discounted.

Charles Leclerc backed up Hamilton's impression, saying: "We've been quick in Singapore, we've been quick in Monza, and both of them are the complete opposites. It shows that we are making some progress, so there are no reasons for us to be very slow in Japan."

Max Verstappen was wary of the "painful" prospect of Suzuka's long back straights and talked up Mercedes' likely prowess through sector one (the esses) and Ferrari's on the straights, but declared himself "not too worried" about Red Bull's prospects at Honda's home race.

Reasons to be cheerful - despite the imminent arrival of Typhoon Hagibis that means all of Saturday's planned track action was pre-emptively cancelled.

Except the mounting evidence of Friday's practice running, coupled with the historical data of Mercedes' supremacy at this track, and its enduring strength in the races this season, suggests we're set for anything but the sort of close battle Hamilton was predicting.

Mercedes qualified over one second clear of the field at Suzuka last year; has locked out the front row for every race held here in the hybrid era; has finished one-two in three out of the five races held here in that period; and has remained undefeated from 2014 to date.

"I believe this is more or less the real picture of the weekend, and they [Mercedes] seem to be very quick..." Charles Leclerc

This is indisputably Mercedes territory, and the Silver Arrows continued in the same vein during Friday practice for the 2019 edition, finishing one-two in each session and comfortably setting the pace.

Valtteri Bottas was almost a second quicker than Sebastian Vettel's Ferrari in FP1, though the gap predictably shrank during the second session, which carried added significance thanks to the fact FP2's final classification will set the grid for Sunday's race if inclement weather means Sunday morning's delayed qualifying session also bites the dust.

Single-lap pace

1 Mercedes (Bottas), 1m27.785s
2 Red Bull (Verstappen), 1m28.066s
3 Ferrari (Leclerc), 1m28.141s
4 McLaren (Sainz), 1m29.051s
5 Racing Point (Perez), 1m29.299s
6 Toro Rosso (Gasly), 1m29.354s
7 Alfa Romeo (Raikkonen), 1m29.477s
8 Haas (Grosjean), 1m29.553s
9 Renault (Ricciardo), 1m29.859s
10 Williams (Kubica), 1m30.916s

Verstappen was rightly pleased to close a 1.3s deficit in FP1 to less than three tenths in FP2, while describing Mercedes as "very quick" and admitting Red Bull still has "more work to do". Team-mate Alex Albon said Mercedes "seem to be doing a lot of damage in the corners".

This supports the theory a circuit that really stretches F1 cars' aerodynamic capabilities is emphasising Mercedes' prevailing strength in this area under the revised 2019 rules set. It also suggests the bargeboard tweaks Mercedes brought to Suzuka - which Bottas said he could feel the positive effect of - are working effectively.

Nevertheless, the feeling at Red Bull is that it is in a much more competitive state here than 12 months ago (ie closer to Mercedes), and that the current delta to Mercedes, with Ferrari slightly behind, at Suzuka is more representative of the true picture of 2019. Essentially, Ferrari's stunning recent form is a blip rather than the result of any real tail-off by Mercedes and Red Bull.

Having ended Friday almost four tenths off the pace, Leclerc said it was "a bit of a surprise" to see Ferrari lacking pace at Suzuka, because "we expected to be quite good here", while Vettel reckoned Ferrari wasn't getting the best from the Pirelli tyres.

"The balance is not that bad actually," Leclerc explained. "We are just lacking speed. It seems that we are maybe lacking a little bit of overall grip. There's a little bit in driving too; I'm not driving very well. At the moment, we are behind and also Red Bull seems very strong."

Even worse news for Mercedes' rivals, if we can call them such, is that Leclerc reckoned FP2 was a much more accurate representation of the performance gap between teams than is usual, because of the need to treat it partly as a back-up qualifying session in case Sunday's postponed session doesn't happen.

"I believe this is more or less the real picture of the weekend," Leclerc added, "and they [Mercedes] seem to be very quick..."

Perhaps the real surprise of Friday practice was that Bottas, rather than Hamilton, set the pace in each session. Bottas's slender championship hopes are hanging by a thread, and he admits he needs luck now to overhaul Hamilton.

Beating him here is the absolute least he needs to do. However, Hamilton suggested Bottas was a bit lucky to end up fastest in FP2.

"This is not, I would say, my strongest of circuits, and there's always areas that you can improve," Hamilton said. "Valtteri got a massive tow on his fastest lap, he gained like half a second out [on] the back straight.

"It's an interesting dynamic, because you don't want to be behind someone through the first part, because you need clean air, but if you're lucky and you get a slipstream late on it's perfect."

Long-run pace (soft tyres)

1 Mercedes (Bottas), 1m34.721s (5-lap average)
2 Racing Point (Perez), 1m34.846s (3 laps)
3 Red Bull (Verstappen), 1m35.554s (5 laps)
4 Ferrari (Leclerc), 1m35.588s (6 laps)
5 McLaren (Sainz), 1m35.985s (11 laps)
6 Renault (Hulkenberg), 1m35.997s (5 laps)
7 Toro Rosso (Gasly), 1m36.370s (11 laps)
8 Haas (Magnussen), 1m37.199s (6 laps)
9 Alfa Romeo (Giovinazzi), 1m37.311s (5 laps)
10 Williams (Kubica), 1m38.131s (4 laps)

Long-run pace (medium tyres)

1 Mercedes (Hamilton), 1m34.267s (3 laps)
2 Red Bull (Verstappen), 1m34.447s (4 laps)
3 McLaren (Sainz), 1m34.755s (2 laps)
4 Renault (Ricciardo), 1m35.175s (7 laps)
5 Ferrari (Vettel), 1m35.545s (6 laps)
6 Haas (Magnussen), 1m35.925s (5 laps)
7 Racing Point (Perez), 1m36.211s (3 laps)
8 Toro Rosso (Kvyat), 1m36.263s (12 laps)
9 Alfa Romeo (Giovinazzi), 1m36.839s (3 laps)
10 Williams (Kubica), 1m37.283s (9 laps)

There isn't too much else to get excited about for Ferrari and Red Bull fans in the long-run data, though Verstappen got reasonably close on the medium tyre, supporting the team's feeling that it is at least back to being second-best here - and perhaps within vague striking distance of Mercedes if that team slips up.

Leclerc lapped very close to Red Bull's long-run pace on the soft tyre, while Vettel's pace on the medium (as Ferrari split programmes) bears out his feeling that the Scuderia didn't get the most from the tyres in FP2 - at least on his car.

Mercedes has long tended to display an edge when it comes to using Pirelli's hardest range of compounds. The medium and soft brought to Suzuka are roughly equivalent to 2018's hard and medium tyres, while Pirelli expects the '19 hard to be little more than a back-up option here - though Nico Hulkenberg managed a highly respectable 1m35.861s average over eight laps on that tyre in FP2, so it cannot be entirely discounted as a race tyre, especially if the weather heats up dramatically and unexpectedly on Sunday.

It's a race that looks Mercedes' to lose. The only real question is whether Bottas can stay ahead of the man who is now a near-certainty to eventually beat him to the championship

Renault's pace over the longer runs was more encouraging than its single-lap speed in a tight midfield group that was again led by McLaren - with Racing Point, Toro Rosso, Alfa Romeo and Haas all in close order just behind.

"Unfortunately we're very slow in sector three on the chicane and on the straight, but we're kind of managing to win it back in sector one so it's a compromise," explained Sainz, who was fastest of the midfield runners in both Friday sessions.

"Lately our car seems to respond well to higher downforce so we're playing around a little bit. We're nothing special in sector three but if we manage to qualify in P7 it will have been the right decision."

Qualifying - whether it happens on Sunday morning as planned or has already happened by default in FP2 - will be absolutely key on a circuit where overtaking is extremely difficult due to the sweeping nature of the layout, and the way it stretches the aerodynamics of the cars.

"Turn 1, Turn 13 (Spoon), Turn 11 (the hairpin) but it's a little tricky because you have that curve before - I think that's it," says Hamilton of Suzuka's potential overtaking opportunities. "The last corner, the chicane. It's very hard.

"I've noticed they've not used the double-DRS [zones] this weekend, which I don't think is a good idea. We should have double DRS because hopefully that should help.

"At the moment, every race you go to, each weekend there's a certain distance or advantage you have to have on the car ahead to have an opportunity to overtake. Sometimes it's like two seconds, sometimes it's eight tenths of a second.

"Here it's over a second and a half you have to have on the car ahead. It's quite a big delta. That's why we don't see a lot of overtaking. With an extra DRS section that shortens that a bit, so they need to add that."

Yet another reason the Japanese Grand Prix is unlikely to produce the classic battle Hamilton was hoping for pre-weekend. It's a race that again looks Mercedes' to lose. The only real question is whether Bottas can stay ahead of the man who is now a near-certainty to eventually beat him to the world championship.