The Belgian Grand Prix Preview

The Belgian Grand Prix marks the beginning of the end of the Formula 1 season, starting a run of eight races that will decide the outcome of the 2011 world championship. But Sebastian Vettel's rivals will be hoping that the Spa race will be the start of the title battle proper, otherwise the 24-year-old German could have locked out the championship long before the circus gets to the season-ending Brazilian Grand Prix in November.

Spa, and the Italian Grand Prix that follows two weeks later, are regarded as a window of opportunity for the rest. Conventional wisdom has it that Red Bull won't be a factor at either track, and although a glance at the record books confirms that Monza is an unhappy stomping ground for the bulls (except for those in their Scuderia Toro Rosso guise), the team's history at Spa suggests that both Vettel and Mark Webber aren't exactly going to be languishing in the midfield.

Why? Because last year Webber was on pole position, only to condemn himself to a fightback from sixth place when he let the revs drop too low at the start. Vettel, too, was quick last year before clattering into Jenson Button. For all the top speed weaknesses of the Red Bull-Renault package (and it is about the package, for the 'works' Renault outfit's speed trap figures have consistently been stronger during the 2011 season), the RB7 can be a factor.

But even if the car does qualify at the front - and if it does it will be down to prodigious pace in the second sector of the lap, where downforce is more important than raw speed - will the Red Bulls be able to stay there? The DRS activation zone is located at the start of the Kemmel Straight that follows the blast up the hill at Eau Rouge, and this means that they will be very vulnerable in Les Combes.

Last year, Red Bull opted to sacrifice a little top speed for acceleration, which made defending possible but overtaking very difficult, so if either Vettel or Webber can get in front, it's not a foregone conclusion that they will be swamped. Either way, it might prove to be a moot point for in Vettel's case; he can afford to be conservative. A third or fourth place would not be such a bad thing given his current 85-point lead in the standings.

But few doubt that if anyone wants to beat Red Bull this season, they need to make their move at Spa and Monza. Assuming that Webber, currently second in the championship, is unlikely to be able to carve chunks out of his team-mate's advantage, that means Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso are at the front of the queue. If either driver can do the double, which is certainly possible given their ever-improving machinery, they are guaranteed at least to keep Vettel in sight heading into the end-of-year flyaways. The question is, which one is favourite? We'll only start to get an idea of that when practice starts on Friday.

You could argue that Hamilton's McLaren team-mate, Button, is the man to watch. He won in Hungary and has proved time and again that his ability to manage tyres is capable of giving him the edge. He's quick, too, perhaps as close to Hamilton as he has been on raw speed since joining McLaren, and a little bad weather might play into the hands of a driver who last won a race uninterrupted by water in 2009. If he is the one to make a move, McLaren will have cause to rue the pitstop blunder at Silverstone and the hydraulic problem at the Nurburgring that left him with back-to-back blanks.

With the top three teams thoroughly established at the front, the midfield battle is equally intriguing. On single-lap speed, the Mercedes is the quickest, but during the past two races Force India has been the biggest scorer outside the frontrunning teams. In Germany and Hungary, the Silverstone-based outfit was able to beat Mercedes thanks to better strategy and weather forecasting. If it can keep that up, it could genuinely establish itself as best of the rest.

Renault and Sauber could also be a factor. The Enstone team's development path has not been perfectly navigated this year, but there are hopes that a major upgrade package will solve the R31's vices. With Bruno Senna likely to make his race debut for the team, the question is whether Nick Heidfeld's developmental experience will be missed? As for Sauber, its car is at its best on high-speed tracks and needs to bank some points to consolidate sixth place, which Force India is closing in on.

Weather

Strategy

Pirelli has allocated soft and medium tyres for Spa and there is expected to be a reasonable laptime difference between the two. Inevitably, the number of stops will not become clear until the track has had time to evolve and we've seen how the weather pans out, but given that the DRS zone, located on the Kemmel Straight, is expected to make overtaking relatively straightforward, expect teams to favour making more stops to unleash latent pace.

This is because track position should be relatively easy to regain on-track, which is in stark contrast to what we saw at the Hungaroring where drivers had to work hard to pass.

But tyre strategy could play second billing to reading the weather. Located in the Ardennes mountains, Spa is prone to sudden showers that can sneak up on even the most well-equipped weather station. This race could boil down to an inspired decision here and a wrong move there with every chance that the rain will come and go on Sunday afternoon.