Should Mercedes choose Ocon or Bottas?

Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff faces a conundrum. In Hungary last weekend, he confirmed it's a toss-up between incumbent Valtteri Bottas and reserve driver Esteban Ocon as Lewis Hamilton's team-mate next year.

The decision is about more than just potentially making or breaking the careers of the two drivers. Either way, it will have a profound impact on the shape, and potential success, of the Mercedes team, not just next year, but beyond.

It's not a straightforward choice, so it's no surprise Wolff is "wrestling with himself". Both Bottas and Ocon are proven, quality Formula 1 performers and would at worst do a decent job for the Silver Arrows next year. But they are at different stages of their careers, with different skillsets, and by drilling down into their strengths and weaknesses - as well as the wider context of the team's future - we can understand the complexity of the decision Wolff faces as he battles with the conflicting paths.

Raw pace

While Bottas's season has gone off the rails in the last two races, his qualifying performances remain strong. On average, he's just 0.078 seconds behind Hamilton this season, which is no mean feat considering he's up against statistically the greatest qualifier in F1 history.

Over a lap, Bottas is a quick driver and has closed the Saturday deficit to Hamilton in each of his three Mercedes campaigns. Even in what has often been the best car, you don't get 10 pole positions and outqualify Hamilton a third of the time without being fast.

But Ocon is certainly quick on raw pace and has been throughout his racing career.

During his first 12 months of F1, split across the second half of 2016 with Manor and the first half of '17 with Force India, he was outperformed overall by Pascal Wehrlein and Sergio Perez. But once on tracks he had already raced on in F1, over the next 18 months Ocon had a small, but conclusive Saturday edge over Perez.

He's also turned in some special performances. Last year's Monaco Grand Prix stands out, where he qualified at the front of the midfield in what was probably only the sixth-fastest car and went on to take an outstanding top-six finish.

But what Ocon hasn't had the chance to prove is that this would translate into a better record than Bottas against a driver of Hamilton's calibre. Chances are, Ocon wouldn't be lagging far behind Hamilton at worst and could well perform better than that, but that's yet to be tested in action.

Winner: Bottas, thanks to his proven record compared to Hamilton in qualifying.

Race pace

Both Bottas and Wolff have admitted tyre management is his biggest weakness relative to Hamilton. He's working on it but, while the more robust rubber for 2019 has helped Bottas, managing not only thermal degradation but also wear has cropped up at times this year as a weakness. In Bahrain, Spain and Great Britain, for example, this was a disadvantage for Bottas.

Last season, his most spectacular slumps in races were down to this and that played a major role in him sliding to fifth in the championship. Having said that, when things are right Bottas has proved he can control races from the front and the move towards lower degradation tyres next year is in his favour.

Ocon developed his race pace very effectively in his time at Force India and showed well in comparison to the arch-tyre manager that is Perez, a master at minimising rear tyre slip. Whether that's a good enough level to be as effective as Hamilton is another question, but if you had to choose one of the pair to complete a race stint for you today Ocon might shade it - and there's a bigger potential upside to come from him than there is Bottas.

The adaptability of Ocon's driving style, which as a default tends to be smooth, carrying speed into the corner, helps this whereas Bottas tends towards a slightly longer loading of the rubber compared to Hamilton's ideal.

Winner: Ocon. While Bottas is improving in this area, Ocon's adaptability means he is less prone to problems with tyres.

Experience

Bottas, 29, has six-and-a-half seasons in F1 under his belt and since the start of 2017 has been Hamilton's team-mate. He knows the Mercedes team inside out and has built up an in-depth understanding of the myriad tools available at a top team such as F1's dominant champion squad.

He admitted to being surprised by just how wide a range of options was available when he moved and, in an interview with Autosport last year, his explanation of the rear differential options is a window into the complexity of this.

"It's separated for corner entry, mid-corner and exit," said Bottas. "If we speak about the entry, we can open the diff early but we can also change the shaping, how quickly it opens and how much it opens. The same for mid-corner, we can limit if it's completely open or if there's a tiny bit of pressure, and at the exit how it reacts to when we get on the power, how quickly the diff locks again and the shaping of that.

"Every corner is different, every approach to the corner is different and that means the diff behaves differently. We are constantly tuning those, but that's only one of the set-up things we're trying."

Bottas has also been battle-hardened by the competition up front in F1, while 22-year-old Ocon has plied his trade mostly in the midfield. While that is tight and ultra-competitive, he hasn't been pressure-tested by the intensity of fighting for pole and victory week-in, week-out. Bottas has only been a qualified success in this arena, but as Pierre Gasly has shown at Red Bull, it can destroy some drivers.

Ocon's two-and-and-half seasons racing in F1 so far were all powered by the Mercedes engine, so he has also built up plenty of knowledge of the company and how to get the best from its technology.

What's more, he's embedded with the Mercedes team and racking up vast mileage in the simulator, so he will have a level of familiarity with this. But what he lacks is the seat time in the real car, first-hand experience of the experiments, the feel, how to chase the set-up when you are in a race weekend.

Winner: Bottas. He has more racing experience in F1, more experience of Mercedes and the endless small details available to him.

Racecraft

Racecraft has been a question mark for Bottas over the years, stretching right back to his Williams days when there was a little tension over the feeling that he wasn't always making the right decisions in first corners.

The recent Hungarian GP, in which Bottas was determined to be aggressive at the start from second on the grid, is a case in point. After a lock-up trying to pass Max Verstappen at Turn 1, he then lost out in wheel-to-wheel battle with Hamilton then, contrary to what the initial television pictures misleadingly showed, actually triggered the contact with Charles Leclerc on the run to Turn 4 by drifting right when the Ferrari had already straightened up.

He then spent too long stuck behind Daniel Ricciardo during his recovery, highlighting that sometimes it just takes Bottas too long to clear slower cars. We also saw this at Hockenheim, where he crashed while trying to chase down Lance Stroll's Racing Point. It was a tiny error in tricky conditions, but as part of the wider picture it does support the concern about his racecraft.

This doesn't mean he's disastrous in battle, merely that he lacks the exemplary judgement Hamilton has shown in recent years. There's a comparison here with his predecessor, Nico Rosberg, who was also capable of matching Hamilton's pace but wasn't as sharp in race situations.

Ocon, by and large, has been very effective in battle. But he's not without incident. His clash with Verstappen while being lapped at Interlagos last year, which cost the Red Bull driver the lead, was pointless and seemingly triggered by his long-standing rivalry with him.

He also clashed too often with Perez in their days together and threw away a potential podium shot in Baku last year trying to hold off Kimi Raikkonen's Ferrari on the first lap and crashing. Some of that, but not all, can be put down to inexperience and the desire to prove himself.

But ranged against that there were also some very impressive demonstrations of maturity, such as when he dutifully slotted into fourth into Les Combes at Spa last year, behind Perez, despite having a sniff of the lead. Had Ocon tried to lead, he risked taking himself and others - including his team-mate - out.

Winner: Ocon. He's still improving in this regard, but Bottas does have a limitation here that will probably never be eliminated.

Ruthlessness

Arguably Bottas's biggest weakness is that he is a well-rounded, more 'normal' human being than the average single-minded world champion. While he's increased the focus on himself this year, being more forceful in his set-up demands and ensuring he gets the best out of himself, he doesn't have the streak predecessor Rosberg had that helped him beat Hamilton to the 2016 championship.

Hungary again showed the contrast between Bottas and Hamilton. Side-by-side with Hamilton on the outside into Turn 2, Bottas pushed his team-mate wide but left a margin. At Turn 4, Hamilton emphatically ran his team-mate out of room. Next time, Bottas suggested "I'll think differently" - but that doesn't come naturally to him in the heat of battle.

Ocon is a different kettle of fish. When at Force India, he knew it was vital to assert himself over Perez and the desire of both drivers to get on top of the other contributed to the clashes. On the track, he might be a little less compliant in battle in some circumstances - a good thing if he's in battle with a driver from a rival outfit, not so good if it's with Hamilton.

But that doesn't make him an unlikeable or abrasive character, so he's at about the right level.

Winner: Draw. If you are looking at who has the edge more likely to make them a world champion, it's Ocon. If you're looking at the one most likely to ensure team harmony, it's Bottas.

Teamwork

Bottas is a well-liked and effective member of the Mercedes team. Hamilton has described their partnership in glowing, if hyperbolic, terms as "the greatest partnership in terms of respect and teamwork from drivers that I'm sure has ever existed in Formula 1, probably".

When looking for a driver to work alongside an all-time great such as Hamilton, that's a big positive and while there have been a few times when some friction has built in the relationship, it has been easily resolved.

Ocon's contribution to the team this year in terms of his vital simulator work is also very much appreciated within Mercedes. He's shown that he can work well with the team on a technical level, something that those who worked with him in the Force India days can also attest to.

He might well evolve to become a more effective technical contributor than Bottas in the future. But he's certainly a driver who has proved he is compatible with the way Mercedes and Hamilton work. On the downside, the aforementioned ruthlessness means that, like Leclerc at Ferrari against Vettel, he would go into 2020 determined to prove he was better than Hamilton.

That's good for his motivation, not necessarily the perfect contribution to team harmony.

Winner: Bottas. Or at least, it's Bottas as long as Hamilton is still there given he's proved he can play the number two role, unwittingly as he is still gunning for the world championship, effectively.

Long-term prospects

While for 2020, Mercedes is looking for a team-mate for Hamilton, there is a wider context. Next year, what the team needs is a support act. But Hamilton isn't under contract beyond that and while it's most likely he will still be there in 2021 to perhaps chase an eighth world title, Mercedes has to be aware of the risk of him either walking away from F1 or defecting to another team.

At least, it does until it has his signature on a new contract - or at least a clear indication that he will hang around. For while he's said he feels he can go on for another five years, he's also raised questions about the 2021 regulations and their appeal - and the lustre of a potential move to Ferrari.

If Bottas continues next year, Mercedes will have an established member of the team who is unquestionably capable of winning races and able to be almost as fast as Hamilton over a season. But the fact is he's finished third, then fifth in the drivers' championship so far and is under pressure from Verstappen for second place this year while Hamilton has been on top in all three years.

What Ocon offers is the tantalising appeal of greater ultimate potential. Bottas isn't a cast-iron title winner in Hamilton's absence but an Ocon with a year of Mercedes experience from 2020 could prove to be.

In the case of Hamilton not being with Mercedes in 2021, it would be a stronger team were Ocon already established within its race line-up and living up to his potential as a possible title contender.

But if Hamilton stays, then Bottas holds great appeal as his long-term support act. With Ocon, there's also the question of making good on a long-term investment. With George Russell ruled out for next year as a Mercedes contender because it's too early but seen as having genuine promise as a works team driver, it could be a case of using Ocon now or letting him go elsewhere.

Winner: Ocon if you're looking for someone who might grow to win world championships and be one of F1's proven gold standard drivers, Bottas if you're looking for a good wingman for Hamilton.

Conclusion

Wolff's real challenge in making this choice is balancing the desire to get the maximum from Hamilton in the longer-term future, and the feeling that Ocon has greater overall potential than Bottas.

Historically, when teams have had a superstar driver, having a clear number two by performance level rather than any pre-arranged contract is a sensible way to do things provided that number two is performing well enough to deliver the constructors' championship and assist the team leader in the battle for the drivers' crown.

Bottas works well for Hamilton in terms of their relationship and his pace, but given Red Bull is improving and Ferrari's woes won't go on forever, the question is whether he is a strong enough number two to back up Hamilton were all three teams at a similar level.

Ocon offers real long-term promise but comes at a price of potential disruption, and the fact that he will take time to build up the same experience of the team, car and all the tricks available that Bottas has done.

As Wolff says, both are valid options. They have varying strengths and would have a dramatically different influence on the dynamics within the team. If he wants short-term pain but long-term gain, Ocon is the right choice.

For short-term gain but with the advantage that 2020 would likely go much more smoothly, Bottas is the way to go. A conundrum indeed.