Is the Ferrari recovery real?

Ferrari power led the way on all four days of the first pre-season Formula 1 test of 2015 at Jerez, but is this yet another false dawn for F1's oldest team, or a sign of genuine progress after a disastrous 2014 campaign?

Whether it was Red Bull defector Sebastian Vettel, the former force of nature that is Kimi Raikkonen, or GP2 graduate Felipe Nasr's Sauber, Ferrari engines consistently set the pace in Spain. In fact, Ferrari and its customer team locked out the top two spots on the timesheet on each day of the Jerez test.

But with McLaren-Honda struggling to get out of the garage (and way off the pace when it did), Renault's "stupid part" hobbling the camouflaged Red Bull RB11, and Mercedes more interested in making the W06 run race distances than set quick laptimes, it's hard to escape the feeling that Ferrari is on top almost by default.

The fact that the Sauber C34 was fastest on day three (in Nasr's hands) and in the top two on all four days of the test only enhances this unease. After all, Sauber's 2014 car was so bad the team failed to score a point for the first time since it entered F1 in 1993...

Prior to 2014, the 1993 season had been Ferrari's last winless year © LAT

Last year was also the Scuderia's worst since 1993 (the last time prior to 2014 that it failed to win a grand prix in a given season), but for all the talk of how overnight miracles don't happen in F1, there was a genuine feeling in the paddock that Ferrari has definitely made significant improvements following its most recent annus horribilis.

Nico Rosberg is a perceptive kind of guy, and he was certainly impressed with what he saw - declaring Ferrari an "eye-opener" with its performance at Jerez. This is interesting when you consider that teams usually play down how much attention they pay to their rivals during testing.

Most of the blame for the Scuderia's poor 2014 season was laid at the door of its engine department, so that has undoubtedly been the main focus for Ferrari's engineering team over the winter.

Last year the engine was weak in terms of its energy recovery, and also delivered its power in a fairly uncompromising and brutal way. It was fairly common to see Raikkonen and Fernando Alonso drifting out of slow corners on opposite lock as they tried to tame the beast.

The SF15-T already looks much more malleable in this regard. The team confirmed traction and throttle response has improved, and it was certainly delighted to complete four days of testing without any major technical problems, having made a more radical attempt at designing its F1 car. Telemetry and radio faults, plus a couple of sensor failures, were the only things that delayed Ferrari's programme.

The drivers were certainly happy with their lot. Raikkonen, who was utterly trounced by McLaren-bound Alonso last year and complained regularly of difficulties with the front-end feeling of the F14-T, claimed its successor was a "completely different story".

Ferrari isn't expecting to be fending off Mercedes in the races just yet © XPB

"Obviously the laptime can be anything - it doesn't mean much. We have quite a good amount of laps and things are working - we're not really having any issues, that's the main thing. And the feeling is pretty fine," he explained after his final run in the new car.

"I think the whole package is better overall: the engine, the car itself. I think that everything has improved. Obviously we still have a lot of work to do to try to improve things - but this is a good starting point."

After setting the 1m20.984s laptime (on medium tyres) that opened Rosberg's eyes on day two, Vettel returned to the Ferrari garage to a loud round of applause from his team.

The four-time world champion played down the significance of his chart-topping performance, but he clearly felt the SF15-T gave him cause for optimism that was so lacking during his final season at Red Bull.

"We have to remember where we are coming from," he says. "There is a lot of change going on and new things - a lot of stuff that we learned. In that regard it was good to run. It was important to keep running, learn the car and understand all of the numbers, and make sure we're good for the next test.

"I'll be heading back to do some simulator running to try to maximise all areas and try to keep improving the car, and have a bit of time to understand, to analyse. It's still very early to tell [where we are].

Vettel has been centre of attention in his first week in red © XPB

"Some people didn't show much, others are running a slightly different approach, more longer runs - extremely long runs, to be honest.

"Even without any running here [taken into account] Mercedes are still favourites. In that regard it's difficult, but speaking of our team we are quite happy. I think we definitely have a good platform to start working from."

So far, so cautious. Which brings us to those apparent 'glory runs' that brought Sauber up into unfamiliar territory on the timing screens.

Nasr topped day three overall in the C34, but he ran the soft Pirelli tyre in doing so (Ferrari and Mercedes used the medium), and he reckoned the Mercedes runners were hiding their true pace. This is probably true. Team-mate Marcus Ericsson lapped half a second slower on the final day on the same compound of tyre, which again flattered the C34 relative to the Mercedes.

Sauber has made no bones about laying the blame for much of its struggle last season at Ferrari's door, but sources inside the team say they are genuinely surprised by how much better this year's engine is compared to 2014's lame duck.

Looking beyond the headline times, the reasons for Sauber's optimism are two-fold: first, the team insists its best laptimes were not set on particularly low fuel loads (though probably lower than the likes of Mercedes and the works Ferrari team), but more importantly Sauber is delighted by the fact it was faster on the same compound of tyre than fellow midfielders Toro Rosso and Lotus.

Nasr lapped almost 1.2s quicker than Pastor Maldonado and 1.6s faster than Carlos Sainz on day three (when all three used soft tyres to set their best times), while Ericsson was half a second quicker than the soft-tyred Toro Rosso when Verstappen took over on the final day. Grosjean was some way further back, but it was his first day in the car and his running was cut short by an engine problem in the early afternoon.

Ericsson leaps from what seems to be an improved Sauber © LAT

"It's a better car this year," says Ericsson, who spent two days in the old C33 in Abu Dhabi last November. "It's more stable in general, and under braking, and through the corners it gives the driver more confidence. So that's positive.

"Also I think Ferrari have made a good step on the power unit compared to the one I drove in Abu Dhabi. Throttle pick-up and everything feels like it should do, and that's really positive. I think Ferrari still have some more stuff to bring along as well. We have quite a bit of margin [too], to be honest, so that's also positive.

"All in all we are very happy with these four days and we have something to build on for the rest of the pre-season, but still we have to wait and see what the others have got."

Of course he is right - this was only the first test and the cars and engines will change drastically as developments are bolted on and tokens spent before Melbourne. As the competitive picture becomes clearer, Ferrari and Sauber may well slip back.

Certainly the message inside the Scuderia is that it is only focused on itself right now and cannot make fair comparisons to the rest. Lewis Hamilton and Rosberg completed more laps than anyone else each day they were in the car, and Ferrari realistically expects Mercedes' overall chassis and engine package to be quicker than its own.

That said, updates are scheduled for the next test at Barcelona, and after a largely trouble-free first test of the SF15-T sources inside the team said there is "less concern about the place" than there was in 2014.

We won't really know for sure until March, of course, but the earliest signs suggest the prancing horse may well regain some of its lost gallop in 2015.