Is Ricciardo's Renault gamble a career breaker?

Fortune favours the brave, but destroys the foolhardy. The question is, which is Daniel Ricciardo? Defecting from race-winning Red Bull when it is on the cusp of starting a works relationship with Honda to join a re-emerging Renault team that still has a long way to go could prove to be either. Ricciardo may never win another grand prix as a result, but he could also establish himself as the focal point of a frontrunning works team. That's quite the coin toss.

Much of this is out of Ricciardo's hands, because we already know he can win races in the right team. Renault has invested heavily and its largely
 all-new car should allow it to slash the gap to the top three, but it's unlikely to clear the chasm in a single bound. Realistically, 2021 and F1's mooted major regulations overhaul is Renault's target and '19 is just a waypoint on that journey.

During this building period, Ricciardo has two objectives. First, he should do everything he can to assist the team on that trajectory and grab whatever big results are on offer. But on a personal level, the second is more important: he must establish himself as Renault's spearhead. That means beating Nico Hulkenberg.

It's easy to dismiss Hulkenberg as a midfield lifer, whose record tally of 156 starts without a podium is that of a journeyman. But he has a touch of magic about him and has shown repeatedly how quick he is. Remember, this is a driver who took a pole position - on merit, with two laps fast enough for pole - in a mediocre Williams at a damp Interlagos in 2010 and fought for victory at the same track in a Force India two years later.

Last year, Hulkenberg saw off Carlos Sainz Jr at Renault. The Spaniard struggled with the rear instability of a car that made it difficult to carry the speed he wanted to into the corners. It's not a question of lack of car control, he could deal with it, but he's a driver who delivers his speed by taking momentum into and through the turns. Add that to a car that, particularly in the first half of the season, could hit aero problems when out of shape, and it played
 into Hulkenberg's hands. He's more of an improviser, not so dependent on a perfect entry to carry in so much speed, and that meant he outperformed Sainz often.

Hulkenberg has also got his feet under the table at Renault. He may not be the classic engineering driver, but he gives clear feedback, zeroes in on what aspects of the car need to improve and is well-regarded by the team. Ricciardo may be the star name, a Monaco Grand Prix winner who has shown potentially championship-winning class over the years, but he's walking into Team Hulkenberg.

Don't doubt Ricciardo's motivation. He didn't move to Renault for the cash, as Red Bull offered a similar financial package and was willing to accommodate Ricciardo's desire for flexibility with a one-year deal. While he might have been sceptical about the Honda engine programme, Renault has yet to prove it can get to the level of the Mercedes or Ferrari power unit. Inevitably, reasons for making such a move are myriad, but it's clear Ricciardo felt it was time for a change after being on Red Bull's books for a decade and, crucially, he needed to get away from Max Verstappen.

Ricciardo's effervescent character has made him an instant hit at Enstone. It's not difficult for a team to get behind a driver both with the CV and the personality of Ricciardo. But the balance of power between Ricciardo and Hulkenberg will be decided by one thing - who the consistently stronger driver is. Who will get the upper hand is not clear cut, but if the handling characteristics that have prevailed in recent years at Renault are carried over it will be good news for Hulkenberg...

Behind the wheel, Ricciardo is more of a classicist. He would have had similar problems to Sainz with the 2018 Renault, although history suggests he might have mitigated them more effectively. But the Renault RS19 is a very different beast, with only the power-steering system carried over. The hope is these big changes, which include an overhaul and repackaging of many unseen non-performance components under the skin, should unlock the next level of performance for Renault.

Some familial traits will be passed on, but the changes could have a big impact on the dynamics of the car. F1 drivers since time immemorial have craved greater stability, it's never a bad thing, but generally the quicker the car, the greater the downforce and the more predictable it should become if you've got your sums right. You'd back Hulkenberg to give Ricciardo a very hard time in last year's car, but this year's car could change things.

Whatever happens, both are fast, accomplished racing drivers eminently capable of wins and podiums in the right equipment. But with two drivers capable of a similar level of performance, the balance of power could swing depending on factors such as car characteristics. Tyres will also play a part, as Hulkenberg has often struggled when thermal degradation is more critical, while Ricciardo often thrives in such conditions.

This is career-defining stuff for Ricciardo. While he is still only 29 and easily capable of another decade at the top level, you can never be sure when another big chance will come. He's voluntarily forsaken a winning car for a losing one, and the history for drivers who have done that is patchy at best - just ask Fernando Alonso.

Comparisons have been drawn with Lewis Hamilton escaping the nurturing arms of McLaren to join Mercedes for 2013. But the similarities are superficial and don't stretch much beyond a driver leaving a team he had a long association with to join an emerging manufacturer.

When Hamilton made his leap, he was moving from a team on the brink of a slump to one that had already emerged as a race winner. Paddock chatter had it that the Mercedes 2014 turbo hybrid engine project was far in advance of its rivals, and Hamilton was sold on that as part of the Mercedes sales pitch.

Renault, by contrast, has underachieved with its engine for five years and has yet to prove the potential of Enstone can be fully exploited. Ricciardo has seen all the evidence, but while Renault has made a good enough case to land his signature it surely wasn't as strong as the one Mercedes built for Hamilton in 2012.

Will fortune favour Ricciardo? If it does, it will pay off big time and be great news for F1 and a driver who deserves a title shot. But it's far from a foregone conclusion. The Renault move could just as easily be a career breaker as a career maker.