Is Ferrari in trouble in Bahrain?

There will probably be plenty of furrowed brows in the Ferrari garage right now, and not just because Sebastian Vettel's Formula 1 car finished Friday practice for the Bahrain Grand Prix on the back of a flatbed truck.

The loose left-rear that caused Vettel to lose drive and pull off the track late in the second session was an obvious low point, but this was also a messy day for the Scuderia, after which both its cars were left well adrift of the pacesetting Mercedes - and trailing both Jenson Button's McLaren-Honda and Max Verstappen's Toro Rosso.

Button going third fastest for a team down on engine performance - at a track where power counts for a lot - raised plenty of eyebrows in the paddock, and suggests at first glance that Ferrari could be battling in the pack this weekend, rather than fighting for victory as it did in Melbourne two weeks ago.

But is it really as bad as all that?

The key question concerns whether it genuinely has no chance of challenging Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg on a circuit where Vettel qualified on the front row and Kimi Raikkonen came close to winning last year. Or whether a cleaner Saturday, another strong start and decent race pace on Sunday can thrust the red cars back into contention.

PURE PACE RANKING (SUPER-SOFT TYRE)

1. Mercedes (Rosberg) 1m31.001s
2. McLaren (Button) 1m32.281s
3. Toro Rosso (Verstappen) 1m32.406s
4. Ferrari (Raikkonen) 1m32.452s
5. Red Bull (Kvyat) 1m32.703s
6. Williams (Bottas) 1m32.792s
7. Haas (Gutierrez) 1m33.129s
8. Force India (Perez) 1m33.406s
9. Renault (Magnussen) 1m33.447s
*Sauber and Manor did not use super-softs in FP2

This ranking looks like bad news for Ferrari, but neither Vettel nor Raikkonen completed clean runs on the super-soft tyre. Vettel was two tenths down on Rosberg through sector one, and dropped 0.8s in sector two before going off at the last corner.

Vettel's fastest time in practice two was actually his first flying lap of the evening on the soft tyre, set on a circuit that had yet to rubber in properly. That time (1m32.650s) was only two tenths slower than Raikkonen managed on the super-soft later on, which suggests the 'Iceman' also didn't get things together.

He also lost 0.8s to the Mercedes in sector two and was already half a second down in sector one on his best lap. The fact he then attempted a second flier (0.354s slower) on the same set of tyres further supports the theory he wasn't hooked up properly at the right time.

The Ferrari engine clearly develops more power than last year, but it didn't look as driveable as the Mercedes coming off the slow corners. Perhaps there is some issue here that is compounding the deficit. But it's also fair to expect Ferrari to be in better shape for final practice and qualifying than it showed on Friday.

PURE PACE RANKING (SOFT TYRE)

1. Mercedes (Rosberg) 1m32.173s
2. Ferrari (Vettel) 1m32.650s
3. Manor (Wehrlein) 1m33.953s
4. Red Bull (Kvyat) 1m34.047s
5. Toro Rosso (Verstappen) 1m34.048s
6. Haas (Gutierrez) 1m34.186s
7. Sauber (Ericsson) 1m34.224s
8. Renault (Magnussen) 1m34.362s
9. McLaren (Vandoorne) 1m34.454s
*Williams and Force India did not use the soft tyre in FP2

Button's pace on the super-soft surprised many, but it should be noted that he and Verstappen set their times much deeper into the session than their rivals.

Similarly, Manor and Sauber are much higher up the soft-tyre ranking than you would usually expect, no doubt benefiting from the fact they ran them deep into practice two whereas the others set their times very early on.

McLaren cannot be discounted, but when the MP4-31 ran the same compound at the same time as others it found itself in a tight group with Red Bull, Williams and Toro Rosso.

"Going from the back-up [medium] to the option [super-soft] tyre I gained 3.2 seconds, and that was not fuel, that was not different [engine] modes, that was tyres and circuit improvement," explained Button.

"It's a massive chunk and it's very difficult to do set-up work when you're doing that sort of thing, and to get a good feel.

"The car doesn't feel too bad. The balance is reasonable, the car's feeling nice around here - definitely better than Melbourne. Long runs, some areas need a bit of work, especially on the harder compounds, but super-soft was reasonably good.

"When you're third in FP2, and it's not because of changeable conditions or anything, you've got to be thinking about getting into Q3. It has to be the aim."

Note the aim is "getting into Q3", which means top eight. Button does not realistically expect to be bothering the second row...

The fact Button was able to lap 0.125s quicker than Verstappen at a similar time on the super-soft tyre does suggest McLaren-Honda is in much better shape here than it was in Melbourne, while the Toro Rosso - which is hard on its rear tyres and a bit draggy - looks to have been sucked back slightly.

Force India and Renault will probably be a little disappointed, as they appear to have been cut adrift of the fight slightly as it stands.

Ferrari should probably focus on the 0.477s gap between Vettel and Rosberg on the soft tyre as a better indicator of its relative deficit to Mercedes here.

PURE PACE RANKING (MEDIUM TYRE)

1. Williams (Bottas) 1m34.761s
2. Toro Rosso (Sainz) 1m35.132s
3. McLaren (Button) 1m35.229s
4. Force India (Hulkenberg) 1m35.314s
5. Haas (Grosjean) 1m35.485s
6. Sauber (Ericsson) 1m35.721s
7. Manor (Wehrlein) 1m35.848s
*Mercedes, Red Bull and Renault did not use medium tyres in FP2
**Raikkonen only completed a long run on the medium so is not counted

Williams will be encouraged by the pace Valtteri Bottas showed on the medium tyre early on (though it is not relevant for qualifying), and Force India also looks much more respectable on this compound. But it's longer running that really counts on this tyre.

It turned out to be the compound of choice for the second half of the race in Melbourne, and it could turn out to be a similar deal here. Raikkonen's 17-lap stint on the mediums right at the start of second practice turned out to be the quickest long run of the night, on any compound.

LONG RUN RANKING (MEDIUM)

1. Ferrari (Raikkonen) 1m36.328s (17-lap average)
2. Manor (Haryanto) 1m37.062s (5-lap average)
3. Williams (Bottas) 1m38.573s (12-lap average)
4. Toro Rosso (Sainz) 1m39.215 (12-lap average)
5. McLaren (Button) 1m39.789s (7-lap average)
6. Sauber (Nasr) 1m40.308s (9-lap average)
7. Force India (Hulkenberg) 1m40.905s (12-lap average)

Both Manors also lapped very quickly on the medium early on in the session, averaging 1m37.0s, but this was over two consecutive short runs of three laps each, so it's probably not particularly representative.

LONG RUN RANKING (SOFT)

1. Mercedes (Hamilton) 1m37.684s (5-lap average)
2. Red Bull (Kvyat) 1m38.689s (8-lap average)
3. Sauber (Ericsson) 1m38.835s (4-lap average)
4. Manor (Wehrlein) 1m39.132s (4-lap average)
5. Toro Rosso (Verstappen) 1m39.536s (11-lap average)
6. Renault (Palmer) 1m40.027s (5-lap average)
7. McLaren (Vandoorne) 1m40.035s (7-lap average)

The difficulty reading these runs is that only a few teams bothered using the soft or medium rubber for longer runs in practice two. Mercedes has only one set of mediums available to each driver this weekend, so has to save them for the race. Conversely, Ferrari didn't bother with the soft tyre at all in the evening.

Again Sauber and Manor look relatively strong, but probably again because of the timing and length of their runs, rather than any particular strength in the respective cars.

Most teams at least tried longer running with the super-soft tyre, at a similar point in the session to each other, so that data perhaps gives a better perspective.

LONG RUN RANKING (SUPER-SOFT)

1. Toro Rosso (Sainz) 1m36.793s (6-lap average)
2. Mercedes (Rosberg) 1m37.087s (6-lap average)
3. Ferrari (Vettel) 1m37.456s (7-lap average)
4. Force India (Hulkenberg) 1m38.253s (5-lap average)
5. Red Bull (Ricciardo) 1m38.475s (6-lap average)
6. McLaren (Button) 1m38.500s (6-lap average)
7. Williams (Bottas) 1m38.565s (9-lap average)
8. Haas (Grosjean) 1m38.694s (5-lap average)
9. Renault (Palmer) 1m41.029s (9-lap average)

Well in actual fact it doesn't really! The trouble here is that the Toro Rosso and Force India drivers both used the super-soft for longer runs at the very end of the session, when the track was at its best (and two virtual safety car periods allowed cooling off periods for the rubber), so they look quicker in this table than they probably are in reality.

The same logic applies to Raikkonen's stonking long stint on the mediums early on, which - given how fast the Manors were too - suggests that compound was working particularly well at the beginning of the session.

When you factor out the outliers - Button and Verstappen doing short runs on the super-soft later than the rest; Raikkonen and the Manors doing long runs on the medium early on; and the Toro Rossos and Force Indias doing the same with super-softs late in the day, the picture looks clearer.

Mercedes has a clear edge; Ferrari is about 4-5 tenths behind on low and high-fuel; there is a tight group behind in which McLaren is potentially in the mix with Toro Rosso, Red Bull and Williams; Haas is heading up the next train with Force India and Renault chasing; and Sauber is likely to be slightly adrift, with Manor maybe snapping at its heels.

Oh! And championship leader Nico Rosberg was quicker than Hamilton at every stage of the day except those final (short) long runs on the soft tyre.

It will be interesting to see if he can maintain that edge when it counts come qualifying.