How McLaren is the biggest winner of F1 2019 so far

The Azerbaijan Grand Prix was another race of what might have been for Ferrari, while Mercedes kept its focus and came away with a fourth one-two of the season. Not bad for a team that everyone, myself included, thought was on the ropes at the end of pre-season testing.

But the results only tell part of the story - so with four races in the history books it's a good opportunity to take a look at the performance trends that have emerged over the Australian, Bahrain, Chinese and Azerbaijan GP weekends.

Before digging into those details, I have to say that as part of the Mercedes supremacy Valtteri Bottas has come of age. Pole position, victory and retaking the championship lead is just the confidence boost he needs heading back to Europe. It's been between him and Hamilton so far, and Charles Leclerc is the only driver I see able to interfere with that intra-team battle.

After four races you would think we should be starting to see the true performance level of each team, but everyone seems to be having problems getting the tyres into the working window. At some circuits they are too hot, some too cold, some too soft and some too hard.

For example, in China the drivers would have carried their cars around on the qualifying warm-up laps if they could have done to save them for the fast lap and avoid overheating. In Azerbaijan, it was completely the opposite and they just couldn't get temperature into them. From that, I don't think Pirelli is really on top of its compound choices, and because of this Baku was a simple one-stop processional race - not the intention coming into the 2019 season.

This inconsistency is probably down to the thinner-gauge tyres that Pirelli introduced at some circuits last year and for all of this season. Thinner gauge means that there is less compound rubber on the tyre, so on high-load circuits such as Shanghai they overheat fairly quickly because they don't have the mass of rubber to dissipate the heat. The opposite happens in Baku - there are no high-load corners and with less rubber mass they lose the temperature going down the long straight.

When you hear the drivers complaining about not being able to get a worn tyre back up to its working temperature after a safety car (or virtual safety car) it is because some of the rubber is worn off. That, in effect, is exactly what a thinner gauge tyre starts life like.

I thought we might see Renault starting to bridge that gap to the top three but its customer McLaren is now embarrassing it

For most teams and drivers this wasn't a problem in Baku. The answer to this is simple: the problem was there right from the beginning of the tyre's life so didn't get any worse just because of a little wear.

So, four races in and I've had a look at the average performance of the cars in percentage terms between the last four races of 2018 and the first four races of '19.

These percentages are derived from the fastest single lap set by each team on each race weekend. This normally comes from qualifying; and since the fast guys usually get through to Q3 and the track normally improves with more cars running on it, it means that the slower cars suffer a slightly larger offset than would be if it was just taken from a session where everyone ran to the end. But that's the way it is.

The average performance shows that the aerodynamic regulation changes have closed up the field slightly, so at least it hasn't spread things out any further. But there is still a void between the top three and the rest. This year I thought we might just see Renault starting to bridge that gap but its engine customer McLaren is now embarrassing it.

If you take those numbers and put them in order of winter progress (or not) you get the following ranking of improvement.

1 McLaren -1.376%

Many people think I have something against McLaren but actually it's the opposite. After a troubled few years with Honda and last year with Renault it's pleasing to see the team has regrouped, stopped deluding itself about where its car is in the pecking order, and is knuckling down to self-improvement.

There's still a long way to go, but while the Renault isn't the best engine package in the pitlane it is still relatively competitive.

2 Toro Rosso -0.837%

Benefiting from a closer relationship with big brother Red Bull has resulted in a positive start to the season. Its second year with Honda means it can take a few more risks on packaging and can run everything closer to the maximum. The luck hasn't flowed its way just yet, but on quite a few occasions Toro Rosso has shown a good turn of pace.

3 Haas -0.332%

Haas made progress but will be a bit disappointed. Testing at Barcelona was positive and at some circuits like Melbourne it was right in there at the head of the midfield bunch. But inconsistency has plagued Haas since it came into F1 and, from session to session, the team never seems to know whether it will be right up there or struggling. The same is true during the races - and it's costing results.

4 Racing Point -0.091%

I'm not sure if this should be called a holding year, since the car took shape while the team was in the grip of financial problems, or if Racing Point is just struggling to get the best out of some early season developments. Baku turned out OK, but it struggled in the previous three races. There's an upgrade for Barcelona and more development parts are needed soon to re-establish the team as best of the rest.

5 Alfa Romeo +0.008%

The team previously known as Suber has just about held its own through the regulation changes. We expected more from Kimi Raikkonen, who has been consistently scoring but hasn't taken any top results, but as we know Leclerc was no slouch last year. So it's down to the team to bring developments. The car doesn't have any great vices, it just needs more grip.

6 Renault +0.047%

The school report would say 'must try harder'. Renault has two very good drivers but both are now starting to question if it will ever happen for them. Daniel Riccardo, who in the Red Bull was one of the best overtakers in F1, just can't come to terms with the car under braking. I'm pretty sure Nico Hulkenberg is suffering from the same problems.

It could just be a brake problem but more likely an aerodynamic issue during braking. But whatever it is Renault must sort it - and quickly - otherwise McLaren's strong pace using the Renault engine will be a major embarrassment to the works team.

7 Mercedes +0.048%

When you're on top it's tough to stay there but Mercedes has managed that during this hybrid era. There have been several chassis regulation changes since 2014 but Mercedes has managed to come out on top through all of them.

This shows the team understands how the car needs to work on the circuit - and there's no giving up yet. The team wants that sixth double championship in succession and after just four races is already well on its way.

8 Red Bull +0.117%

Red Bull is still the third best team but I thought the change in aero regulations might have been its chance to close that gap to Mercedes and Ferrari. Instead, it has got bigger.

The Honda engine probably hasn't helped Red Bull but I don't think it has hurt the team, otherwise Dr Helmut Marko would very quickly be voicing his opinion on the situation. Red Bull needs some aerodynamic and chassis updates to close the gap to the 'big two' - so performance at Barcelona will be very important.

9 Ferrari +0.167%

After so much pre-season promise, Ferrari has either fallen away on performance or tripped over itself at every race so far. On face value, nothing very much has changed over the past couple of seasons - it has the potential but has never quite executed.

If Ferrari is to offer any sort of challenge to Mercedes it needs to do it fairly soon otherwise the points difference will be too great to close. Then it will be another season of what might have been.

10 Williams +0.884%

Much was promised at the end of 2018 but nothing has worked for Williams. With a situation like that it is not about throwing things at the car, it is about digging deep to see what the team is doing wrong. As I said above, Mercedes has a very good grasp of how the car works on the circuit, but Williams seems to be in the opposite position.

How it researches and signs off developments for production has a major influence on what happens at the circuit. This area is critical to moving forward otherwise you just work everyone into the ground for nothing - and if nothing works then everyone loses motivation.

So that's the performance side as it stands, but it's points that count, and since I like to look at things in percentages let's have a look at how the constructors' championship is working out after four races.

If anyone is going to get on top of the Mercedes steamroller and slow it down it needs to be done now

A one-two finish plus fastest lap equals 44 points, which is the maximum available for a two-car team on any given weekend. Over the four races this would be 176 points and equal 100%.

Over the season, the maximum points available is 44 points times 21 races, equalling 924 points - again this would equate to 100%.

Mercedes is dominating, missing out on a full house by only three points. Perhaps, having taken only one out of four fastest laps, the team must try harder. Only joking - at the current rate Mercedes will have the championship sealed by Hungary.

Four races down, 17 to go - but if anyone is going to get on top of the Mercedes steamroller and slow it down, it needs to start now.