How Hamilton could repeat Ferrari's '18 home nightmare

Lewis Hamilton stole victory in last year's Italian Grand Prix from under the noses of short-odds favourites Ferrari with a stunning drive, his best of the 2018 season thanks to forcing an error from Sebastian Vettel early on, and then biding his time before passing Kimi Raikkonen in the final stint.

Heading into this year's Monza weekend, the talk was justifiably of Ferrari's expected pace advantage, but does Hamilton's proximity to Friday practice pacesetter Charles Leclerc hint that a repeat of last year's reversal might be on the cards?

Hamilton's deficit to Leclerc was just 0.068s, allowing Hamilton to split the Ferraris with Vettel in third place. But Leclerc did not benefit from a good tow on his quick lap, whereas Hamilton did have one from a well-positioned Bottas.

At Monza, the perfect tow can be worth as much as seven-tenths of a second. To achieve that, you need the car ahead both to be quick and somewhere in the region of four seconds ahead of you on the lap. Bottas was not far off that, and, in the final sector in particular, Hamilton was stunningly fast with a time 0.148s quicker than Leclerc, who had little air-punching assistance.

The tow, of course, is a tricky thing to get right even for the best drivers in the world.

To this, we must add the caveat that Leclerc faced better conditions, as he set his time before the rain came whereas the Mercedes drivers bolted on the softs after. The track was not as grippy during Hamilton's superb lap, so this has to be factored into any adjustment of the lap times.

But what it makes clear is that Mercedes could definitely get close enough with a perfect slipstreaming effort should Ferrari not do so. In the circumstances, it seems logical that both teams would try and use their slower driver to tow their faster driver in Q3. Usually, they alternate their sequence, with Leclerc and Hamilton the drivers at the front last weekend - good news for them here.

The long-run pace is also encouraging for Mercedes

As expected, Red Bull struggled. During the session, it was suggested to Max Verstappen that he was losing a second on the straight, but it should also be noted he gave away several tenths in the first sector on his quick lap so could have been faster. Either way, he's got a back-of-the-grid penalty for taking the latest-specification Honda power unit, so it will be left to team-mate Alex Albon, who is still acclimatising to the Red Bull RB15, to lead the charge.

Albon could also have an advantage in Q3 should Verstappen go as far as that stage of qualifying, as he would then have a team-mate who could be dedicated to towing him.

Single-lap pace

1 Ferrari (Leclerc), 1m20.978s
2 Mercedes (Hamilton), 1m21.046s
3 Red Bull (Verstappen), 1m21.350s
4 Toro Rosso (Gasly), 1m22.124s
5 Haas (Grosjean), 1m22.153s
6 Renault (Hulkenberg), 1m22.338s
7 McLaren (Sainz), 1m22.482s
8 Alfa Romeo (Raikkonen), 1m22.523s
9 Racing Point (Stroll), 1m22.706s
10 Williams (Kubica), 1m23.737s

The long-run pace is also encouraging for Mercedes. Hamilton focused on the mediums, so it was left to Bottas to test the soft Pirellis. He had a three-tenths of a second advantage over Leclerc, judging by adjusted seven-lap runs on softs.

Rear tyre degradation was certainly not a problem today, so neither team will have been engaged in much tyre management. The one caveat we must add to the long-run times is that drivers started at different times and, with the track conditions improving, the error bars are inevitably widened when it comes to judging relative pace.

"We're quite strong, I think, on race pace, but actually perhaps a little bit closer potentially on single-lap pace. So it looks like we may have a fight." Lewis Hamilton

But looking at the medium running that Vettel and Hamilton undertook, the gap is similar with an advantage of 0.286s per lap for Mercedes. So while Ferrari still has to be considered favourite to lock out the front row, even with the variable created by the tows, we could see a repeat of the situation at last weekend's Belgian GP where Mercedes was faster in the race.

Long-run pace (softs)

1 Mercedes (Bottas), 1m24.888s
2 Ferrari (Leclerc), 1m25.191s
3 Red Bull (Verstappen), 1m25.276s
4 Racing Point (Perez), 1m25.575s
5 Toro Rosso (Kvyat), 1m25.672s
6 Haas (Magnussen), 1m25.943s
7 Renault (Ricciardo), 1m26.137s
8 Alfa Romeo (Raikkonen), 1m26.262s
9 Williams (Kubica), 1m27.331s

Hamilton was upbeat after the session, suggesting he was encouraged by the performance relative to Ferrari.

"They [Ferrari] are quite quick in a straight line," said Hamilton. "We're quite strong, I think, on race pace, but actually perhaps a little bit closer potentially on single-lap pace. So it looks like we may have a fight."

The Ferrari drivers still feel there is more to come from the car after what Vettel called an "OK" day.

Red Bull's pace was not far off Ferrari's, although Verstappen will be well out of range of the battle at the front given his starting position - assuming some fluke doesn't assist him. Again, it will be left to Albon to lead the charge.

The conditions painted a muddled picture in the midfield. Toro Rosso seemed surprisingly strong, with Pierre Gasly one of the drivers able to get two push laps in before the rain to be the best-of-the rest over a single lap. On race pace, Daniil Kvyat showed good pace on his run, ending up just behind midfield long-run leader Racing Point's Sergio Perez.

The midfield wildcard could be McLaren, which didn't look stunning today but can use Lando Norris, who will start from the back whatever happens, to tow Carlos Sainz Jr. At least in the first two stages of qualifying, that is a weapon the team would do well to use.

Racing Point didn't have the best of the conditions early in the session, so appeared to underachieve on single-lap pace as a result.

Renault could also be a threat, with Daniel Ricciardo declaring it "definitely a Q3 car" after an encouraging day and suggesting being the midfield leader might be possible.

Back at the front, while Ferrari should still have the advantage conferred by a car that, all things - particularly the tow - being equal should be faster over a single lap, Friday hinted things could be closer than expected. While the outright pace gap flattered Mercedes, it proves the effect of the two might be decisive.

Ferrari still has every chance of prevailing this weekend. But even on a day when conditions clouded the picture, there were hints that Mercedes could make it difficult for the home team

If Mercedes can ace Q3, there's at least a shot at springing a surprise on Saturday afternoon - as Bottas pointed out.

"I think we have an opportunity [of pole]," said Bottas. "We definitely need a perfect set-up from the package we have, and a perfect tow, that's going to be the key."

What Mercedes can be sure of is that it at least has a shot at the front row, which realistically it did not have at Spa last week.

"We were a long way off the Ferraris in qualifying last week and it looks a bit better here although the same trend is evident where we are losing on the straights and gaining in the corners," said Mercedes trackside engineering director Andrew Shovlin.

"It's difficult to know where we stand on the long runs, as rain and traffic were affecting the laps, but the drivers are both happy with the balance and the tyres seem to be working well. Red Bull and Ferrari have both made significant gains in single-lap pace over the last few races and now qualifying is often our most difficult session. We don't expect tomorrow to be any different; hopefully we'll be able to challenge for pole but we don't expect it to be easy."

But even if Mercedes starts behind, as Hamilton showed last year he's eminently capable of finding his way past two Ferraris - even when they are on home soil with the power of the Tifosi behind them.

Ferrari still has every chance of prevailing this weekend. But even on a day when conditions clouded the picture, there were hints that Mercedes could make it difficult for the home team. Especially with similar mixed conditions expected on Sunday afternoon after more pleasant weather tomorrow.