How Ferrari held back in Friday practice

Everyone, and that includes the Formula 1 teams themselves, had Ferrari pegged as the clear leader heading into the Australian Grand Prix weekend.

So with Mercedes apparently blowing the red cars, and Red Bull for that matter, out of the water in Friday practice, either everyone was wrong or something has changed dramatically. Both of these possibilities cannot be dismissed out of hand.

But this was no ordinary Friday practice and there are enough question marks and asterisks against the performance not just of Ferrari, but other teams in the field, to suggest all was not quite as it seemed.

Looking back to winter testing, most reckoned Ferrari potentially had an advantage of around 0.3 seconds over Mercedes. Some thought a little more, some a little less, but there was a clear consensus.

Although Vettel had shaded Hamilton in the battle to top the times by just 0.003 seconds, the fact that he gave away a couple of tenths in his final sector on that fastest lap compared to his best and set a lap time that put him a good 0.3s faster, when adjusted for using a slower tyre compound, painted a different picture. But that was just a snapshot from testing.

It's well known that Mercedes introduced a major upgrade package for the second test, so it's far from unreasonable to think it will have shaken more performance out of it in the two weeks since testing wrapped up.

"It's a difficult read for us," said Mercedes boss Toto Wolff. "We hit the road and it wasn't great. Then we brought a substantial upgrade package to the second test and slowly but surely started to understand and learn and put the dots together. It was a quite decent end of testing.

"The teams were, lap time-wise, very close together but very few kilograms of fuel can make you look very good or less good. That's why, pants down on Saturday, that's the first real benchmark this year."

Ferrari didn't have a great time on the softs. Vettel complained his car was "still a bit wobbly" after his push lap, while Leclerc said FP2 was difficult and the wind caused some problems

But today, we don't have the luxury of waiting for qualifying. So what did we learn from Friday? The bare facts show that Lewis Hamilton set the pace with a best lap of 1m22.600s, just under half a tenth faster than Mercedes team-mate Valtteri Bottas.

Max Verstappen was third fastest, eight tenths down, with Sebastian Vettel a further 0.073s back for Ferrari. All of these times were set in FP2 using the soft Pirellis.

Single-lap pace

1 Mercedes 1m22.600s
2 Red Bull 1m23.400s
3 Ferrari 1m23.473s
4 Alfa Romeo 1m23.572s
5 Renault 1m23.574s
6 Haas 1m23.814s
7 Toro Rosso 1m23.933s
8 Racing Point 1m24.011s
9 McLaren 1m24.133s
10 Williams 1m26.453s

Now we come to the first caveat. While Mercedes had a completely conventional run plan for Friday afternoon, Red Bull didn't.

To deviate a little from the Mercedes versus Ferrari narrative - worth doing given that Red Bull's testing pace was inconclusive - Verstappen's performance run was not entirely representative.

Typically, after early running on a harder compound, drivers then head out in the middle of the session, or even earlier than that, for a qualifying simulation. Verstappen went against the grain by continuing to pile on the miles on mediums and didn't do his run until the closing stages.

After setting his fastest time, he stayed out and did enough running to show you can confidently knock 0.6s off for fuel. That puts him 0.2s off Mercedes, if we (riskily) assume they would normally have a similar payload for their FP2 performance runs.

Ferrari, meanwhile, didn't have a great time on the softs. Vettel complained that his car was "still a bit wobbly" after his push lap and lacked confidence, while Leclerc mentioned that FP2 was difficult and the wind caused some problems.

Leclerc also, however, stressed that "we are not flat out". We know Verstappen could have gone significantly quicker, and we can be sure Ferrari would have been able to as well.

We know the Ferrari is not only a tenth faster than an Alfa Romeo, quick as Kimi Raikkonen's lap was, so can dismiss that gap as anything representative.

But what we can't say based on that is where Ferrari would have been with an even comparison to Mercedes other than saying it would be at least a lot closer.

It's possible that fuel loads played a part, and the pace of the Ferrari in the early running using mediums, with both drivers seconds off, suggests the comparison was indeed skewed.

But what about the long runs? Mercedes again was fastest by some distance based on runs on the soft rubber. The gap to Ferrari was very similar to the one-lap pace, judged by Vettel's run; Red Bull - based on Pierre Gasly - was in a similar area.

In fact, on long-run pace Ferrari and Red Bull are among a clutch of teams in the very low 1m29s bracket, which includes Alfa Romeo, Renault and even McLaren - with Toro Rosso only a few tenths back.

Again, this is clearly misleading because, while the gap from midfield to the front has narrowed, the big three are still the big three. Here's how the long-run pace stacks up, based on six counting laps on soft rubber.

Long-run pace

1 Mercedes 1m28.238s
2 Alfa Romeo 1m29.006s
3 McLaren 1m29.029s
4 Ferrari 1m29.090s
5 Renault 1m29.133s
6 Red Bull 1m29.154s
7 Toro Rosso 1m29.348s
8 Haas 1m29.570s
9 Racing Point 1m29.578s

Look at pace on other tyre compounds and things get a bit more interesting. Leclerc's pace on the hard tyres (C2s compared to the 'soft' C4s) was within a tenth of Vettel's on the softs.

Pirelli puts the total pace difference between hards and softs at 1.5s. It should be stressed that's peak lap time and the gap on a long run would be smaller, so that doesn't put the reds seven tenths up the road, but again this confirms that Ferrari has more pace than it has so far unleashed.

To add to that, Vettel's pace on a brief long run on mediums was very similar to that of Bottas. This could potentially point to Ferrari struggling more on the softs than the other compounds, but that will only become clear tomorrow.

The midfield picture is a little clearer, but still inconclusive. In testing, the feeling was that Haas perhaps headed the first group of three teams in the mid-pack with Renault and Alfa Romeo close.

Ferrari is faster than it looked on Friday. The question is, by how much?

Today broadly supported that, although Alfa Romeo shaded it, with Renault on very similar pace. It's worth noting that Nico Hulkenberg did a very impressive run on the softs in terms of range with very limited drop-off, which suggests the Renault is kind to its tyres and the tyres are durable.

As for Haas, often on Friday it looks less competitive than it actually is and the gap to the front of the midfield can easily be made up.

That said, it was just behind Toro Rosso, while McLaren driver Carlos Sainz Jr delivered a strong run on softs that put him with the midfield leaders and well clear of Racing Point, which appears to be its closest rival on outright pace.

The one thing we can be sure of is that the midfield is close. So what can we really conclude from today? Probably less than we expected and certainly less than, to invoke Wolff's phraseology, we will when the pants are down on Saturday afternoon.

Mercedes probably has extracted more from its car, but until we see Red Bull and Ferrari on equal terms in the one-hour qualifying session, we won't get a meaningful read on exactly where it's shaken out.

But we should not be surprised if Mercedes has made gains, given how formidable this team is. And even if that has only closed the gap to Ferrari, at worst it could move it within range of Hamilton taking pole with a one-lap special.

It's possible Ferrari might have a bit of a problem with the soft Pirellis, which would definitely be an issue come Q3, but it does look plenty fast enough on mediums and hards.

As for Red Bull, it's probably thereabouts and it wouldn't be a surprise if the gap of closer to two tenths (once you've corrected for the length of Verstappen's run) to Mercedes was in the ballpark of reality.

But there's one thing we can be absolutely sure of: Ferrari is faster than it looked on Friday. The question is, by how much? And will it be enough to put it ahead, as expected after testing, or will the competitive picture be dramatically different?