How F1's biggest strength is now its biggest weakness

Despite Formula 1 CEO Chase Carey's unwavering confidence of being able to put on a season of up to 18 races this year, there is growing scepticism over whether or not the show will get going at all. As the world faces an unprecedented global pandemic, each week brings with it surprises and a new normality.

There has been little evidence so far that we are going to shake off the outbreak in the space of a few short weeks. Indeed, while some may have thought recently that the virus outbreak would hit countries for a fortnight and life would become normal again shortly after, now most are accepting that this is a marathon and not a sprint.

Those most vulnerable to the virus are being ordered to stay isolated for three months, governments are talking of lockdowns coming and going for at least six months and there have even been talk of restrictions being extended for up to a year. Exactly when things can start getting back to normal is anybody's guess.

Countries can only estimate when the peak number of cases will hit their territories and all eyes are now on China to see what happens over the coming weeks now that it has begun to emerge from its own lockdown.

What is clear is that the return to how things were before is not going to be a light switch moment, where one day everyone is shuttered inside and the next suddenly we are all heading off to pubs, clubs and sports events.

There will be a fair degree of caution as normal life resumes about not unleashing the virus for a second wave, which is why things are likely to remain tightly locked down for a while. And when sport does get going, it will likely be the smaller events - which can be organised in rapid fashion - that will be the first to reappear.

A tennis match between top players can be arranged at short notice with very few people needing to be there. Local football games could be arranged within a matter of weeks, once the government and health authorities are clear that doing so would pose no risk to the public.

As confidence levels increase about the virus being under control, then large events could be considered. But the bigger they are, the harder they are to arrange and the longer the timescales needed to commit.

The speed by which developments in Australia triggered the cancellation of the race will serve as a warning to promoters that could all come crashing down at their feet in a similar fashion

It is no surprise therefore that two of the biggest sporting events this year - the Olympics and the Euro 2020 football championship - have not been postponed by a few weeks. Both are on hold until 2021. The difficulty for the major sporting organisations right now is trying to second guess not just when the current virus wave has passed, but also in being sure that anything you plan for the near term future isn't at risk again.

F1's problem in getting the show back on the road is that it is not a small operation of a handful of teams with a few mechanics, who all operate out a lock up and can rock up at a track at a moment's notice. It has become such a global success story, rivalling the Olympics and the World Cup, because it is a such a massive business.

It flies over 1500 people all around the world to hook up with hundreds of thousands of fans, before they pack up their tonnes of equipment and head to the next place the following week on the other side of the globe. It is almost a military-scale operation.

F1's promotional benefits are so big that governments and promoters are willing to fork out tens of millions of pounds - and even lose some money in the process - just for the rights to hold a race. In the background, they know that the benefits to the local economy and any cash they can get from ticket sales will at least make hosting a race worthwhile in the grand scheme of things.

F1's influence and that financial dynamic for promoters has served it well during the boom years, and even some fallow campaigns. But amid the current crisis, it now becomes a weight around its neck.

The speed by which developments in Australia triggered the cancellation of the race there will serve as a warning to promoters forking out a race fee and spending hard cash on building up infrastructure that it could all come crashing down at their feet in a similar fashion.

For a Grand Prix in a far off location to get the go-ahead, there will need to be a ton of guarantees about travel for the entire F1 community. Borders will need to be open for all the team personnel and there will have to be no risk of a Melbourne repeat. Such guarantees will need to be in place for months in advance if teams or the race promoters themselves are going to be willing to give the green light to an event.

Even perhaps the easiest race on the calendar to organise, the British GP at Silverstone, would not be that straightforward to give the go ahead without a fair bit of warning. Sure, a majority of British team could at quick notice decamp to the Northamptonshire track, but there is no easy solution for the European-based teams.

Ferrari, AlphaTauri and Alfa Romeo would need multiple weeks' notice, and guarantees that the situation does not change as lockdown restrictions are lifted to even attempt what in previous years would have been a straightforward drive across the continent.

Even if lockdown restrictions are eased shortly, how can F1 judge whether or not the French or Italian governments decide in three weeks' time that they need to get tougher again, so shuts things up once more?

F1is facing a tricky task in getting the racing rolling again and arguably could become a victim of its own success

Could a race promoter like Silverstone, which receives no government funding and could risk going bankrupt if things panned out in a bad way, really be happy to try to put on a race if there was a slight doubt about what may happen?

Things are even more complicated for flyaway races, which will rely on all countries that F1 staff and fans fly through to be free of restriction or risk - and be sure that there aren't restrictions cropping up in many weeks to come.

So for all F1's bullishness about what lies ahead (and its public statements may well be aimed more at appeasing shareholders), it is facing a tricky task in getting the racing rolling again and arguably could become a victim of its own success.

If, as likely, lockdown restrictions ebb and flow over the next few months, then there really may be no other choice than to bring some certainty to the situation and call the entire season off.