How F1 engine change processes are clouding the Red Bull vs Mercedes battle for Spa supremacy

There was no doubting Mercedes’ position as the dominant force at Spa in 2020.

Lewis Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas were able to chuck their W11s into the Belgian Grand Prix track’s famous and fearsome corners with breath-taking ease and simply ran clear of Red Bull’s Max Verstappen in the race – the Dutchman going from regular challenger to barely keeping Renault driver Daniel Ricciardo at bay from third in the closing stages.

Not so in 2021.

Across the two one-hour practice sessions at Spa on Friday, the general trends of 2021 re-emerged, but with a couple of key differences. Both of F1’s leading teams again appear to be very close on pace and small things led to differing results in FP1, which was topped by Bottas, and FP2, where Verstappen went quickest before crashing late on.

Overall FP2 order

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Jerry Andre / Motorsport Images

Data Autosport has seen on Friday suggests that Verstappen's best time on the medium tyres early in FP2 - compared to Bottas’s effort on the same rubber that was +0.041s slower - was mainly gaining time at the first part of Les Combes, the Turn 9 ‘corner with no name’ and the Fagnes chicane.

Verstappen’s crash wasn't the only unexpected development of the day. Perhaps the most significant, if not considering the impact of another shunt on Red Bull’s cost cap considerations, was how the two Mercedes didn’t improve when switching to the soft tyres during what are typically the qualifying simulation efforts in the middle of FP2.

There were several reasons why they did not.

The main reason why the Black Arrows pair did not improve, and why Verstappen only gained 0.125s on the softs as he jumped ahead of Bottas, was because all three apparently had their engines turned down

Firstly, both Hamilton and Bottas apparently reported not feeling much of a grip improvement with the red-walled rubber – which tallies with Pirelli estimating that there is just a 0.5s difference between the mediums and the softs.

They were also not happier with the W12’s balance and overall handling once on the softs, with the “massive bump right at the compression point” Hamilton suggested has appeared in the middle of Eau Rouge – and “kind of ruined it a little bit”, per the world champion – also contributing to their negative feelings on this run in particular. The result was Bottas ending up 0.429s slower than he went on the mediums, while Hamilton was 0.354s down in the same comparison.

But the main reason why the Black Arrows pair did not improve at this stage, and why Verstappen only gained 0.125s on the softs as he jumped ahead of Bottas, was because all three apparently had their engines turned down compared to their fastest laps on the mediums.

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

This suggests both teams were concentrating on the mediums for their qualifying simulation efforts, and it has been suggested that Red Bull apparently turned up Verstappen's engine for a second flying lap on that compound, which explains why he improved by 0.53s from a 1m45.127s to a 1m44.597s – in turn 0.084s slower than Bottas’s best. It is therefore likely both teams will try and get through Q2 on the mediums if qualifying is dry.

In Mercedes’ case, the reason why it turned down the engine mode for the soft tyre runs was also because it needed to do a full calibration of the new power units fitted to both cars, with Hamilton and Bottas joining Red Bull’s Sergio Perez, the two McLarens, Alpine driver Fernando Alonso, Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc, both AlphaTauris, Williams racer Nicholas Latifi and Aston Martin's Lance Stroll in taking their third and final allotted new engine for 2021.

In order to try and ensure the desired reliability levels with new power units, teams typically run through all the engine modes to make sure everything is working as it should. And with the soft run seemingly not the most important one in practice at Spa today, we can surmise that is why both Mercedes and Red Bull opted to turn their engines down when typically they would have them turned up. The typical practice caveats apply too, as neither, and Red Bull in particular, shows its full power hand in Friday practice.

But the various changes in engine modes at both squads correspondingly make it trickier to pinpoint which one has the best ultimate pace at Spa so far. And, thanks to Charles Leclerc crashing and bringing out the red flags before Verstappen’s shunt ended FP2 early, there is zero long-run data to analyse in regards to a possible competitive order. So, the one-lap efforts are the only indicators and, as we’ve covered, they came with additional caveats thanks to the new engines.

Sergio Perez, Red Bull Racing RB16B, Kimi Raikkonen, Alfa Romeo Racing C41

Photo by: Jerry Andre / Motorsport Images

"It's hard to know quite where we stand,” Mercedes’s director of trackside engineering, Andrew Shovlin, said after FP2. “The circuit is very power sensitive so going up and down on modes can give big swings in lap time."

Another challenge – and one that needs solving across the grid, not just for the two frontrunners – relates to the wing level conundrum that applies every year at Spa. This is the downforce level balance required to best navigate the long straights and acceleration zones in the opening and final sectors, with the middle that features more technical sections and multiple corner sequences.

At Mercedes, it sent Hamilton out with a much bigger rear wing compared to Bottas for FP1, before the world champion was switched to the smaller wing for FP2 and both will likely keep that option for the rest of the weekend.

“The pace was quite similar,” Hamilton said of the wing experiments, where coming upon Latifi late-on during his soft-tyre run during FP1 meant he finished that session down in 18th as he had to back off from behind the Williams. “You try one option, and you are faster in the first and third sectors, but slower in the middle. And then you try the other option and it's the opposite. So, figuring out the right balance is really tricky.”

Red Bull really is in the hunt at Spa compared to how things were 12 months ago, even if it cannot be certain it carries the favourite tag right now

Autosport’s sources have indicated that Red Bull was thought to be running more downforce overall on Friday – Verstappen was supreme in the middle sector – but it has also been suggested that the team might not necessarily have been doing so intentionally.

This is because the higher-rake concept Red Bull pioneered (famously hurt less by the mandated cuts to the rear floor area for this season, which, it’s worth saying again is the main reason it is in title contention thanks to Mercedes’ low-rake approach being impacted more by the rule changes) has a lower potential to reduce drag.

This is because the rear of a higher-rake car sits higher and is therefore why Red Bull has traditionally not gone as well at Spa and Monza as it has done and does do at other venues.

Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes W12, Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B, and Carlos Sainz Jr., Ferrari SF21

Photo by: Jerry Andre / Motorsport Images

But Red Bull really is in the hunt at Spa compared to how things were 12 months ago, even if it cannot be certain it carries the favourite tag right now. Plus, if it does rain throughout the rest of the weekend as many people have suggested – both practice sessions slotted in nicely between showers – then its car’s 'natural' higher downforce level will pay off.

But the teams likely won't try to set their cars up for rain, which is why we can assume Hamilton and Bottas will stick with the smaller rear wing at Mercedes. This is because, if it stays dry, then any drivers running additional downforce will be sitting ducks on the straights. The best bet approach is for a team to go into qualifying set-up for the dry and then its drivers will just have to live with what they've got if it does rain in the race.

At the time of writing, the weather forecast – as much as it can be relied upon given FP2 was at one point predicted to be a washout – is apparently suggesting possible thunderstorms in qualifying and then scattered cloud build-ups in the race.

So, here’s how F1’s leading teams finished the first day at Spa. Red Bull is on top of the times but knows it doesn’t have a clear edge on pace to Mercedes and must repair Verstappen’s car after his FP2 crash.

“I mean it was good, I think the whole day we were quite happy,” said the former championship leader. “Of course, there are a few things to fine tune from FP1 to FP2, and overall, been very happy. I think definitely a very positive start. I didn’t change anything on my car with the wing, I felt happy with what I have. [In the crash] I don’t know – just lost the rear. A bit too much oversteer to correct and unfortunately hit the wall.”

Marshals remove the car of Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

At Mercedes, Bottas is apparently happier with the car balance and handling overall, while Hamilton is looking to make changes.

“The car wasn't quite underneath me today,” he said. “So, I've got to do some work tonight and try and figure that out.”

But the overall conclusion is that, once again, so far there's nothing to really make one team standout against the other in the fight at the front of the grid, but small things could add up to big differences over the unpredictable remaining sessions of the Belgian GP weekend.

Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes W12

Photo by: Charles Coates / Motorsport Images