Hamilton sends a message to Vettel

"This track is awesome, I'm having the best day," quipped Lewis Hamilton over the radio during his performance run in Friday afternoon practice at Suzuka. Not the kind of thing you often hear during probably the most important practice session of a grand prix weekend for race preparation.

It was as if Hamilton was aiming that message directly at title rival Sebastian Vettel, like it was another small psychological barb as part of the barrage of pace, wheel-to-wheel superiority and points accumulation that he has subjected the Ferrari driver to in recent weeks.

He might as well have said, "I'm having a great time, in the best car, winning the championship, and you are not," and had it piped directly into the Ferrari garage.

Vettel wasn't having a good time. Not only was he 0.833 seconds off the outright pace, but both he and Ferrari team-mate Kimi Raikkonen were struggling with rear tyre blistering. After Singapore, Russia and now the first day at Suzuka, Ferrari seems crushed. That's why today also wasn't a good day for those holding out hope for the title battle to reignite. By every measure, Mercedes is on top. Emphatically.

The usual Friday caveats apply. At one stage during the session, Raikkonen asked, to no avail, if he could go to a more aggressive power mode, which confirms that there is, as always, more to come tomorrow. The same can be said for Mercedes, however.

Ferrari has to be worried about Red Bull, which is effectively on the same pace. When blistering set in, Ferrari was firmly third best of the big three

The weather could change, rain is possible on Saturday (although that's been of little help to Ferrari this year), and progress will be made by the Italian team overnight. But there is no reason to expect Mercedes to be beaten by Ferrari in normal circumstances.

The supersofts were the tyres of choice for the qualifying simulation runs, and the gap from Hamilton to Vettel is telling.

Single-lap pace (supersofts)

1 Mercedes (Hamilton), 1m28.271s
2 Ferrari (Vettel), 1m29.050s
3 Red Bull (Verstappen), 1m29.257s
4 Force India (Ocon), 1m30.035s
5 Haas (Grosjean), 1m30.440s
6 Sauber (Ericsson), 1m30.478s
7 Toro Rosso (Hartley), 1m30.502s
8 Renault (Hulkenberg), 1m30.644s
9 McLaren (Alonso), 1m30.988s*
10 Williams (Sirotkin), 1m31.087s

*time set on softs

The deficit edged up by almost a tenth on long-run averages, judged over seven counting laps on supersofts with anomalous slow laps eliminated, with the gap growing to 0.904s from Hamilton to Vettel.

This is similar to the pattern we saw at Sochi, only with the gaps stretched even more. That Friday practice running translated into an ultimately comfortable one-two for Mercedes in Russia, with Hamilton even able to perform one of the few passing moves between cars of similar pace in the race to get back past Vettel after his team had thrown track position away.

Based on Friday at Suzuka, Ferrari has to be far more worried about Red Bull, which is effectively on the same pace. There were also problems with rear blistering for Ferrari, which set in as that Vettel stint went on, to the point where Ferrari was firmly third best of the big three.

Long-run pace (supersofts)

1 Mercedes (Hamilton), 1m34.394s
2 Ferrari (Vettel), 1m35.069s
3 Red Bull (Verstappen), 1m35.080s
4 Sauber (Ericsson), 1m35.769s
5 Force India (Ocon), 1m35.797s
6 Haas (Grosjean), 1m36.004s
7 Renault (Hulkenberg), 1m36.593s
8 Williams (Sirotkin), 1m37.030s
9 McLaren (Vandoorne), 1m37.517s

Toro Rosso did not complete a long run on supersofts

On soft Pirellis, things look a little better for Ferrari, but still the advantage is there for Mercedes.

Vettel admitted the tyres are a concern, but claimed not too be too worried about the performance given it was a clean day overall.

"Today I think we were probably both of us sliding a bit too much, and therefore damaging the tyres a bit more than others," said Vettel. "But I think overall, it has been OK."

When sliding, it's easy to overheat the surface of the tyre, which has likely contributed to the blistering both Vettel and Raikkonen suffered. Ferrari will be keen to find out in FP3 if it can solve that problem, but with rain threatening it might not get the chance.

Pirelli has also found that recent bad weather - as in typhoons - have impacted the track surface and increased its roughness. This has had an impact on how aggressive the circuit is on the rubber - albeit not to the point where one stop will cease to be the favoured strategy at a track where overtaking is impossible.

As the problem is most likely linked to not getting the rubber properly 'switched on', whereby you achieve the temperature in the bulk of the tyre that allows the surface to bond chemically with the asphalt and give the grip required, it's very possible Ferrari could solve this.

Ferrari appears to no longer be able to rely on prodigious steps from practice to Q3. In Sochi, Mercedes and Ferrari gained pace pretty much in lockstep, while in Singapore Hamilton found significantly more

Whatever happens, it will need to get the supersofts working as it has the most lopsided tyre selection in favour of that compound of any team on the grid, with 10 sets of them among the 13 allocated to each driver.

What this all points to is that the Mercedes advantage seen in recent races is absolutely as it seems. It's not track specific, it's not a temporary swing, it's for real. While Mercedes only occasionally had a pace advantage in the first half of the year (although when it did, for races such as Spain and Paul Ricard, it was more pronounced), in Singapore, Sochi and Suzuka, it's emphatic.

"We have a strong car, but I don't think we had a dominant car at any point this year," said Vettel yesterday. "It has been very close all year.

"A race like last weekend [Russia], they could play with us in the race, which usually means they had more pace. There were other races in the season where we didn't have the pace they had but I think we have always been very close - most of the races close enough - to have a good fight."

This doesn't appear to be the case at Suzuka. The Mercedes has certainly looked strong and Ferrari needs to find something. One thing it tried in FP1, then removed for the afternoon, was a new floor with a slot just in front of the rear tyre, although a tweak to the brake duct was retained.

Hamilton meanwhile was revelling in the moment, saying that there were a few corners where he had to "kill it" this year after giving away time in the past. Watching trackside, his Mercedes looked outstanding in the morning session, as did the Red Bull. The Ferrari, meanwhile, didn't look bad once in the corner but both drivers were a little conservative on turn-in, perhaps thanks to a little instability at the rear.

One thing Ferrari appears not to be able to rely on is the prodigious steps from Friday practice through to Q3 that were the norm in the first half of the season. In Sochi, Mercedes and Ferrari gained pace pretty much in lockstep, whereas at the event before in Singapore Hamilton found significantly more.

This has inevitably led to suggestions that whatever was behind Ferrari's engine advantage in terms of the kick supplied off the corners has been cancelled out somehow. Ferrari insists that despite FIA scrutiny there has been no change, instead suggesting the car is simply not able to match the Mercedes on higher downforce tracks.

What is far more intriguing is the battle behind for 'Class B' honours, in which Sauber appears to be getting stronger. Small updates here and there appear to have made the car increasingly strong, and following Charles Leclerc taking a first class 'victory' at Sochi last weekend, his team-mate Marcus Ericsson was the strongest from that group on the long runs at Suzuka on Friday.

That piles the pressure on the teams ahead in terms of the constructors' championship, with Toro Rosso just three up the road and Racing Point Force India a further five to the good. Toro Rosso is boosted this weekend by using the 'Spec 3' Honda engine for qualifying and the race for the first time having trialled it on Friday in Russia. The target is a place in the hugely-congested top 10.

All of this is bad news for Renault, which currently holds fourth in the constructors' championship by 11 points from Haas. The Enstone team is struggling to match the pace of the class leaders, with both Carlos Sainz Jr and Nico Hulkenberg not bothering the top 10 today.

But it's the battle up front that attention will be focused on come qualifying. Right now, the only hope for Ferrari appears to be that rain or misfortune might intervene.

Unfortunately for Ferrari, rain has been its enemy this year. That leaves misfortune as the main hope for Vettel.

No wonder Hamilton is in such a good mood. Even if it is fanciful to suggest his radio message was anything more significant than an expression of pure enjoyment.

"I'm on the edge everywhere," said Hamilton. "Naturally, it gets easier once you get to Turn 13 and it's easy from then for us, but through that middle section, the first and second section, it's insane.

"It's the best rollercoaster ride, that first section, that I've felt in a Formula 1 car. I've got my balance in quite a nice place, so I was just enjoying it. If you could hear the other stuff that's on the radio... I have to make sure I keep it switched off most of the time!"

And that's the worst thing for Vettel and Ferrari. Not only is that combination facing a Mercedes team that has edged away, but also an all-time great driver having the time of his life.

It's going to take something special for Suzuka not to be conquered by Hamilton and Mercedes.