Ferrari's progress from disaster to 2020 contender

Six weeks ago, Ferrari's 2019 season could be generously described as bitterly disappointing. Less charitably, given the form it showed in pre-season testing - when those inside the team, at Mercedes and in the rest of the field all expected it to set the pace come the Australian Grand Prix - it could be called disastrous.

In the opening 12 races, Ferrari either squandered the pace it had in its car or couldn't hold a candle to Mercedes, to the point where Red Bull ended the first half of the season as the biggest threat to the Silver Arrows.

Things have changed since. Dramatically.

Since a humbling defeat in the Hungarian Grand Prix at the start of August, when Sebastian Vettel and Charles Leclerc finished just over a minute behind the victorious Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari has struck back.

Back-to-back victories in the Belgian and Italian GPs for Charles Leclerc were perhaps not a surprise given Ferrari's straightline speed advantage, but the one-two in Singapore led by Vettel was.

Boosted by a significant car upgrade that included a new nose, floor and diffuser, Ferrari surprised itself with its form and would have added another one-two in Russia last time out but for the MGU-K failure that put Vettel out and triggered a safety car that lost Leclerc the lead.

Ferrari has now gone from a team capable of winning only at the heavily power-sensitive circuits, perhaps to a threat at most tracks. This weekend's Japanese GP will probably show just how strong it can be, given that Suzuka is a track that highlights the weaknesses of the car. The signs from Friday practice were not too promising, so an intriguing all-action Sunday will show more.

Vettel admitted that, by the end of the first half of the season, Ferrari was "a bit lost"

The run of poles and wins is the kind of form everyone was expecting from Ferrari at the start of the season. Instead, it flattered to deceive.

At power-sensitive Sakhir it dominated but Leclerc lost victory to a dropped cylinder, while Vettel spun away his chances in battle with Hamilton.

It was fast in Baku until a crash for Leclerc in Q2 and dropping track temperature put it on the back foot, while Vettel won on the road in Montreal but lost victory to a penalty for rejoining the circuit dangerously.

Leclerc almost won at the Red Bull Ring but was passed late on by a charging Max Verstappen, and the car was quick at Hockenheim but problems for both cars in qualifying put the Ferraris down the grid for the German GP.

Ferrari not only had a car that was only sporadically strong enough to fight at the front, but also struggled to get the best out of it consistently.

Ranged against those potential five victories were the weekends where the car was nowhere - Spain and Hungary chief among them - in a desultory start to the season.

Vettel admitted that, by the end of the first half of the season, Ferrari was "a bit lost".

The turnaround since has been stark and the recent run is a huge boost to the team. As well as the strength of the engine, which is the most powerful in F1, the Singapore upgrade has made a big difference to the car in the corners, though it's still not at the level of Mercedes.

"We've generally understood which way to go," said Vettel of the upturn in Russia. "One, we were able to react with set-up. Two, I think the package we had in Singapore was going in the right direction, so giving us more downforce, more grip overall.

"We were then able to, with the set-up also, be a bit more free, and tackle the limiting axle, whether it was at the front at some races, the rear at other races.

"I hope that going from here, the improvements we made in Singapore keep on giving us more freedom to explore the set-up.

"Then, if you shift the balance, obviously in some parts of the corners it turns out to be weak for the front, or it turns out to be weak for the rear. So it's not fair to give you an answer saying it's just the front, or just the rear.

"But I think what we need to find is more grip in the car so we have more freedom to play with the set-up and go in the direction that is necessary for whatever track and requirements."

It's particularly good news for Vettel. While he struggled in qualifying in Russia, his race pace at Sochi was strong and he was able to edge away from Leclerc in the early stages.

By and large, the more downforce you put on the car the more formidable Vettel becomes. But it also reflects the growing strength of Ferrari on the aerodynamic side.

Having been fooled into thinking it had the advantage by the Mercedes strategy of running a very early iteration of its 2019 car at the first test, then deploying the heavily upgraded car for the second, Ferrari came to realise it was lagging behind in this area.

The first major Mercedes upgrade of the year in the Spanish GP then crushed any hope Ferrari had of fighting back in the long term, resulting in the Silver Arrows' most dominant performance of the year in terms of outright pace.

This led to some serious soul-searching, via upgrades in France in June that validated the direction all the way to the major changes in Singapore.

"Since the Spanish GP, where our performance was very poor on a maximum-downforce circuit and low-speed cornering, we put a lot of effort internally on performance assessment to try to understand what were the weaknesses of the car, the behaviour of the tyres, and try to set the direction of development," said team boss Mattia Binotto in Russia.

"That direction has been continuous - it's not only Singapore we brought some parts. We brought [upgrades] earlier in the season in other races.

"What we've achieved in Singapore has been the sum of everything. It's not only aero, but certainly with the aero we've addressed one of the weaknesses.

"It has come through a good understanding of the car, finding the right compromise on the balance and the set-up. And I think altogether it's car understanding, set-up and aero that we move forward."

This doesn't mean all is perfect for Ferrari. It still looks to have a car that isn't quite as fast as the Mercedes in race spec and that still works its rear tyres a little hard, but the crucial question is whether it's on the right track to be on the pace consistently in 2020 and therefore able to end a title drought that stretches back to the 2008 constructors' crown.

Binotto was asked in Russia how important these upgrades are for the team's championship hopes in 2020, and he hinted that some of them may have come from the work already ongoing on that car.

"Or vice-versa, maybe this is where the upgrades of next year have been transposed on the current car," he said. "On the current car, with the regulations being the same for next year it will certainly be of interest.

"Whatever we are building on this season in terms of understanding will be key for next year as well. That's why we are still focusing or putting effort on 2019, not only because we're seeking victories but because we know that a good understanding of the overall car performance in this season will be to the benefit of next season."

What is difficult to measure is how big a step Ferrari needs to take to be that title-winning force again. It's not just about the quality of the car, an area where Ferrari is improving, or engine package, where Ferrari excels, but the whole operation.

Mercedes has become so formidable because of its all-round quality and an internal culture that is able to tackle weaknesses and mistakes in a calm and systematic way.

Ferrari's turnaround this year suggests it too has done the same, but it remains a team lacking the confidence of a consistently winning operation.

Inevitably, there are suspicious mutterings in the paddock about how Ferrari has achieved this advantage

To complicate matters, Ferrari also has a tricky dynamic to manage between its two drivers, with Vettel trying to see off star-of-the-future Leclerc while knowing that his days with the team could be numbered since his contract is up at the end of next year.

Ferrari is a team that has forgotten how to win championships, but it's encouraging that its form over the four races leading to Suzuka is the best of anyone.

We must also factor in the relative strength of the position of Mercedes.

Ferrari has been in this intense period of troubleshooting, which is key to ensuring it is on the right track for next year. While Mercedes isn't exactly resting on its laurels, it can afford to be a little more strategic in the way it deploys its resources with half an eye on 2020.

But there is reason to be concerned, for its updates introduced at the German GP have not been the success that was hoped and has made the car trickier to get the best out of in qualifying - particularly when it comes to getting the tyre temperatures right on both axles.

"I think the truth will be somewhere in the middle," said Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff when asked if Ferrari had made a leap forward or Mercedes had eased off.

"I think they have and continue to make big steps in straightline performance.

"If you put these dots together you are setting the benchmark. And this is what they did these last two weekends.

"At the same time, we haven't brought upgrades since a long time onto the car, and we probably haven't managed things as optimum as you can manage.

"But also we've been a bit unlucky with our calls, and in the last few races we could have won, and we didn't. And that bad luck turned into good luck [at Sochi]."

It's impossible to tell whether this is as good as it gets for Ferrari, which hasn't quite been able to grab a title in recent years despite moments where it looked in the hunt. But since the car concepts of Mercedes and Ferrari haven't converged, there is scope for one team or the other to ace it next year.

Then there is the curveball of Red Bull, another sharp operation that you wouldn't bet on Ferrari outfoxing consistently in a great fight.

The Binotto era at Ferrari got off to a shaky start and the past few weeks have stabilised things. Now it's time to see if it can be a consistent threat in the remaining five races of 2019 and therefore have built firm foundations for the title bid everyone is waiting for.

How Ferrari won the engine war

Remember the start of Formula 1's 1.6-litre V6-turbo-hybrid era in 2014?

Then, Mercedes led the way while Ferrari struggled having started its project too late. In 2015 the team took a massive step forward, and over the past season and a half the Ferrari has emerged as the benchmark power unit in F1 in terms of outright grunt.

Estimates vary, but in qualifying trim the Ferrari engine package has an advantage in the vicinity of 30bhp over Mercedes, with Renault a similar amount behind Mercedes and Honda perhaps a further 15bhp down.

In the races this spread is much tighter but, at power-sensitive circuits such as Spa, Monza and Sochi, the Ferrari engine has been its trump card. At Sochi, this was worth just over 0.7 seconds on the straights in qualifying over Mercedes.

Inevitably, there are suspicious mutterings in the paddock about how Ferrari has achieved this advantage.

Questions have been raised about whether it has found a way to circumvent increasingly stringent technical directives to prevent oil burning for extra performance, or found some trick with the ERS battery to deploy more power.

But everything that has been raised with the FIA has been cleared. And given the amount of data gathered on how the engines are working, it does have the necessary information to monitor things very closely. So we have to conclude that, for now, Ferrari has just done a better job.

Whatever the reason, while the performance of the other three manufacturers seems to be converging gradually, Ferrari has edged ahead.

"I don't think that the others are converging," says Binotto. "I still believe that there are differences between all four manufacturers, and today we are probably the more powerful engine but I don't think that the others are all on the same level at all.

"And I think that our advantage is not as big as you may think. That's down to the car as well, and the drag, and if we can come down to the more detailed analysis, I think yes we've got an advantage but it's not so huge as Mercedes had in the past."

Controlling the driver tensions

After an up-and-down start to the season, Leclerc has asserted himself as Ferrari's strongest driver. Not since the seventh round of the season in Canada has he been outqualified by Vettel, a run of nine consecutive races.

Since Canada, on the seven occasions when both have finished Vettel has been ahead just twice - and one of those was in the Singapore Grand Prix, where he jumped Leclerc thanks to a surprisingly powerful undercut.

It's been a fascinating battle to watch, with 21-year-old Leclerc fighting to assert himself over Vettel, 11 years his senior.

While Leclerc has the edge on performance, he has also shown himself willing to go the extra mile to seize an advantage. At Monza, amid the kerfuffle on the out-lap at the end of qualifying, Vettel got ahead of him and Leclerc tried hard to stay behind him and gain the advantage of the tow. After Leclerc won on Sunday, team principal Mattia Binotto said he had been forgiven for this indiscretion.

More recently, in Russia Vettel did everything he could not to cede the lead to his team-mate as per the pre-race agreement. It was clearly a powerplay to try to win the race and reassert himself.

It was a bold gambit, although ultimately Ferrari's weekend fell apart thanks to Vettel's MGU-K failure - which prompted the virtual safety car that also cost Leclerc the lead he'd gained through pit strategy.

According to Leclerc, the trust is there between the two but it's clear the gloves are now off in this generational battle.

While Vettel is on the back foot, he does have some advantages. In Singapore he was more incisive in traffic than Leclerc and gained 5.3 seconds as they cleared the midfielders.

He has also been better on tyre management at times this season, an area Leclerc is improving, and appeared to have the edge on race pace at Sochi. On top of that, the improved balance of the Ferrari and the amelioration of the front-end weakness should suit his style better.

It's clear that this battle is going to take some management by Ferrari. But while Leclerc has the upper hand, Vettel still has the determination and the experience to fight back and prove that he can regain the leadership of the team that Leclerc's performances have denied him of late.