Why F1 junior schemes' strike rate is so poor

Formula 1 teams have always coveted the next big thing; the new Senna, Schumacher or Hamilton who will lead them to the promised land of domination.

But the strike rate for those who have attempted what often seems akin to alchemy by 'growing their own' has been patchy to the point where successes are few and far between.

So how do you bake the perfect Formula 1 driver?

It's important to recognise how high the bar is. Top teams don't want to produce a mere 'good' grand prix driver - there are plenty of those and, in a buyer's market, they are readily available.

This is about finding a gold-standard driver, someone who can not only win races, but do so consistently and put together a serious title challenge in the right car. On the current grid, only Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen are bankers when it comes to that, with Daniel Ricciardo, Sebastian Vettel (historically) and Charles Leclerc (emerging) also close to that strata.

Take Red Bull's junior scheme. Regularly pilloried as a savage and uncaring conveyor belt, it has nonetheless produced two of the drivers mentioned above.

Considering there are only 33 F1 world champions, to have produced Vettel and the possible 34th of those in Verstappen is a good strike rate despite the vast number of drivers who have passed through that scheme.

It does provide us with plenty of case studies.

Contrary to the perception of the scheme, it's not as callously sink-or-swim as some perceive.

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Drivers are given access to all the support and training they need, although it does also require the members of the scheme to be proactive in using those assets.

Helmut Marko takes a very active interest in their careers, and while he is famous for pulling no punches in his dealings with them it's correct to be demanding in the extreme. To thrive in elite sport, you have to be tough.

That's why Marko respects the drivers who are able to thrive in adversity on the way to F1 - a challenge some fail to meet.

You'll never become a world champion if you blame everyone but yourself.

Recently, Hamilton talked about how easy it is to underestimate just how good grand prix drivers are. He's right, doubly so when it comes to one as good as he is.

They aren't superhuman, as people often say, but they are finely-honed athletes combining the physical skills - feel, reactions, fitness - needed to excel with the intellect, the mindset of champions.

That's far more impressive than if they were just magically born with this ability. The seeds of talent may be innate, but they germinate and thrive based on the way they are cultivated.

Many drivers tick most of the boxes required of a great driver to become true masters of their craft, but precious few tick them all.

So it stands to reason the strike rate for a driver development scheme will be poor.

There is no precise way to nurture a great driver simply because of the way they are prepared. Drivers emerge with great potential at some point or another in their career, but gradually they fall by the wayside.

How many superb karters never make a name in cars? How many who thrive in entry-level categories such as Formula Ford lose momentum? Every new rung of the ladder asks tougher questions of the drivers until they reach the apex of the motorsport pyramid.

What is vital is that they answer them at every level, something that McLaren's Martin Whitmarsh knew while overseeing Hamilton's rise to F1.

This led to a momentary separation between McLaren and Hamilton when an attempt was made to step up from Formula 3 to GP2 a year early - before it was realised just how difficult it is to raise such a budget. Back in the fold, Hamilton dominated the F3 Euro Series and the rest is history. Perhaps there is a lesson in that for Red Bull?

Speed is a given, but most drivers in F1 can lap within a few tenths of each other on any given lap.

The trick is to be as close to the ultimate lap time (defined by the laws of physics) as often as possible. While doing that, you must be capable of thriving in battle and making game-changing moves that can transform races. Hamilton and Verstappen can do that, but a driver like Valtteri Bottas can't.

Pierre Gasly is a fascinating example of a driver who lost the plot once in a top car.

He struggled to look within himself for the answers and allowed himself to be dragged into a rabbit hole of constant set-up changes, chasing the ideal balance for one corner and losing it at another.

He also made seven seat changes in an attempt to get 'comfortable' - but the problem was with the man in the cockpit.

Asked the toughest questions, he was found wanting. A good driver, but probably not a great one.

The word probably is used because coping with adversity is a vital ingredient for a great driver. It can certainly lead to improvements, as Daniil Kvyat has shown.

Last time round, particularly once relegated back to Toro Rosso, he did not cope well.

Even when quick, he struggled to string weekends together and ended up scoring a fraction of the points of team-mate Carlos Sainz Jr. But Kvyat's returned this season a more rounded, capable, phlegmatic driver - and therefore more consistent. The year out of a race seat proved crucial in making him stronger.

"The results don't come in one day," explains Kvyat.

"The year off for me was so important to be able to rebuild myself mentally, to find my path and to be able to follow it now every weekend."

There is no way to be sure who might benefit from a sabbatical - some will return triumphant, others will disappear.

Some drivers, such as Hamilton and Verstappen, don't need that kind of break to regroup, but even they have had phases of their careers where they have lost the plot and made too many errors. The trick is learning from them.

For those cultivating these talents, you can never be absolutely certain of the result.

When Verstappen had his run of blunders last year, even the team recognised there was a danger he might just turn into a super-fast Pastor Maldonado. Instead, he came out of the trough an even more formidable driver.

There is no rulebook to follow. All you can do is give chances and support.

It's rarely teams' treatment, or maltreatment, that defines the success or failure - that comes from deep within the drivers themselves. And that can only emerge through exposing them in battle, testing them and seeing how they respond.

Most crumble eventually, but those precious few who don't are the Sennas, Schumachers and Hamiltons of this world.