Favourite Ferrari can't be "blinded" by pace

If something has happened five times previously and always with a negative result, it stands to reason there's little justification to expect a different result. Ferrari set the Friday practice pace at Spa, the sixth time that has happened in 13 races in 2019 - so why should that confer it the status of favourite?

It's a valid question, but Ferrari's astonishing failure to win a single race this year has not always been down to a loss of relative pace from Friday to Sunday. The performance profile of its cars on Friday is exactly in keeping with what we'd expect from a car that should be the quickest here given its strength on the straights. But there are still reasons not to be "blinded" by the performance, as Sebastian Vettel put it.

Comparing the fastest Ferrari times in each sector to Mercedes' quickest underlines just how dramatic the advantage on the straights was

Ferrari certainly played to accentuate its strength in practice. It had a choice of three different front-wing downforce levels and opted for the lowest level on both Charles Leclerc and Vettel's cars.

With Leclerc setting the fastest time, 0.630 seconds quicker than Vettel and 0.846s faster than the lead Mercedes of Valtteri Bottas, that added up to a massive advantage.

Single-lap pace

1 Ferrari (Leclerc), 1m44.123s
2 Mercedes (Bottas), 1m44.969s
3 Racing Point (Perez), 1m45.117s
4 Red Bull (Verstappen), 1m45.394s
5 Alfa Romeo (Raikkonen), 1m45.708s
6 Renault (Ricciardo), 1m45.735s
7 McLaren (Sainz), 1m45.999s
8 Haas (Grosjean), 1m46.120s
9 Toro Rosso (Kvyat), 1m46.214s
10 Williams (Russell), 1m47.887s

Comparing the fastest Ferrari times in each sector to the quickest of Mercedes underlines just how dramatic the advantage on the straights was.

In sector one, which runs from the start/finish line to just before Les Combes, Ferrari had an advantage of 0.860s. In sector two, the twisty sector that ends after the Stavelot right-hander, Mercedes pulled back 0.355s. On the final blast up the hill to Blanchimont, then through the Bus Stop Chicane, Ferrari gained 0.184s.

It's possible that Mercedes could have gone quicker as Hamilton appeared to struggle for traction out of La Source and the chicane on his best lap. As he had to back off on his second attempt, we never had the chance to see if his attempt to match Bottas by using third gear out of the chicane, where he struggled for traction before, would have delivered an improved lap time. But whatever happens, that points to Ferrari being ahead.

This pace difference on the straights was despite all the Mercedes runners having new and upgraded power units, a move matched by the Ferrari works teams and all the customer entries save for the Alfa Romeo of Kimi Raikkonen.

Red Bull's single-lap pace was non-existent, but this was primarily a consequence of Verstappen not having the usual high-power mode used on Friday available and newcomer Alex Albon focusing on acclimatisation. Verstappen was, however, brisk in the middle sector, a couple of tenths off Mercedes.

It should be noted that Verstappen is still running the older third-spec Honda engine, whereas Albon is running the latest one and will start at the back as a result. Verstappen is set to continue to use his on Saturday.

But with Ferrari running very trimmed-out even by Spa standards, that does raise the question of whether the Pirelli tyres will be overworked in the middle sector as the car slides around. The long-run performance on softs suggested that there might be a problem with tyre life.

Hamilton set the pace for Mercedes on the long runs on softs, but although our table below shows Max Verstappen at an identical pace that comes with the caveat that it was only over four counting laps compared to Hamilton's nine. Over a longer run, that average would have been dragged down by thermal degradation but it's the only data available.

Long-run pace (softs)

1 Mercedes (Hamilton), 1m51.031s - 9 laps
2 Red Bull (Verstappen), 1m51.031s - 4 laps
3 Racing Point (Perez), 1m51.282s - 10 laps
4 Renault (Ricciardo), 1m51.360s - 10 laps
5 Ferrari (Vettel), 1m52.019s - 10 laps
6 Haas (Grosjean), 1m52.112s - 2 laps
7 McLaren (Sainz), 1m52.311s - 9 laps (split stint)
8 Toro Rosso (Gasly), 1m52.393s - 6 laps
9 Alfa Romeo (Raikkonen), 1m52.448s - 8 laps
10 Williams (Russell), 1m53.383s - 12 laps

The medium-compound data is more patchy, partly thanks to the late red flag caused by Sergio Perez's Racing Point suffering a Mercedes engine failure. But Charles Leclerc, who only did a short run on softs after his performance run, did complete six timed laps at an average of 1m50.827s. That was 0.186s slower than Valtteri Bottas's 'run', which amounted to just three laps.

But the hints given by the medium pace showed Verstappen at the top of the charts, albeit with a paltry two lap times set - a quarter of a second clear of Bottas.

The Ferrari appeared much more comfortable on the mediums than the softs and it could be that its ultra-low downforce approach is asking too much of the tyres in the middle sector thanks to the car sliding around. But we also have to bear in mind that the track temperature is expected to be significantly lower come race day, potentially only 50% of what it was on Friday afternoon.

But that will give Ferrari something to think about. The team will be determined to lock out the front row, so the question is whether it can do that carrying a little more wing to protect the tyres - or perhaps get through to Q3 using mediums (reckoned by Pirelli to be a second slower) to avoid starting the race on heavy fuel with softs.

That would also raise the question of whether using hards for the second stint is wise, something most are wary of given the expected low ambient temperatures clash with the high working range of the white-band rubber.

Unusually, in a season where it has tended to struggle more as the temperature drops, Ferrari might need cooler conditions on Sunday to avoid exposing a tyre degradation disadvantage

Mercedes also has a little work to do, with technical director James Allison hinting that the balance isn't necessarily where it needs to be for the best performance.

"We made some progress with the car across the two sessions but we have more to do in order to be competitive tomorrow and on Sunday, because we looked a little off the pace in both the low- and the high-fuel running today," said Allison.

"The car balance was a bit too much towards understeer this morning and the track surface here is quite a rough asphalt, which makes it pretty demanding on the tyres if you don't have the car's balance correct. That hurts on both the single lap and the long runs because you can't keep the goodness in the tyres if the balance isn't there. It will be small changes that we're looking for but there's nevertheless some work to do overnight."

The unexpected star of the day was Racing Point, with Sergio Perez effectively the midfield leader and actually ahead of the Red Bulls on outright race. The car performed well at Baku in April, but that's the last time it has achieved such lofty heights. This is encouraging for the team's hopes, but the engine problem that brought Perez's session to a premature end and led to a red flag could be a big setback.

The midfield battle is set to be impacted heavily by grid penalties, with both Renault drivers and McLaren's Carlos Sainz Jr among those already being hit by them. But despite the problems, Racing Point could still be in the mix for best of the rest, even if beating Red Bull - as today's times suggested - is unlikely.

Ferrari is favourite, no question. But unusually, in a season where it has tended to struggle more as the temperature drops, it might need helpful conditions on Sunday to avoid exposing a tyre degradation disadvantage, should it continue running the wing levels used in FP2.

As it has been on previous occasions this season, the ball is in Ferrari's court. The question is whether it can strike a winner rather than a mishit when it comes to the crunch and everyone within the team, including Vettel, will be cautious about their hopes.

"I don't think the margin is correct, I don't know what others are doing," said Vettel. "We've seen a couple of times that we are very quick on Friday, so I'm not blinded by that.

"The reality of today is it's a Friday, so we have to wait until tomorrow night and then Sunday especially is when it matters."

His conclusion on Friday was "race pace, we need to pick it up". Everything we saw on track confirms that is the key to Ferrari making good on its strong start at Spa.