F1 testing: Where is Renault really at?

Twelve months ago, Renault's Formula 1 operation must have wished the ground could have opened and swallowed it up.

After four consecutive world championship doubles with Red Bull, it could barely string a sequence of laps together. The sight of the RB10 grinding to a halt on track (and the sound of grinders flaying bodywork in the Red Bull garage) was almost as common as seeing a Mercedes-powered F1 car crossing the line to begin another valuable pre-season lap.

In the words of team boss Christian Horner, Red Bull and Renault are in a "completely different position" with pre-season testing now in its second half.

Reliability concerns caused by what Renault F1 boss Cyril Abiteboul called a "stupid part" related to the ERS water pump compromised the first pre-season test at Jerez, but things have gone much better over the first three days of this week's running at Barcelona.

Glitches have been minor so far in testing for Red Bull this week © LAT

After a shaky first day (the consequence of software glitches), Daniel Ricciardo topped the timesheet and successfully completed Red Bull's first race run of the pre-season on Friday.

Then new team-mate Daniil Kvyat managed to complete a race run of his own today.

Red Bull has completed 255 laps over the past two days of testing. That's almost twice as many as the Milton Keynes squad managed across the first two pre-season tests in 2014.

Meanwhile, sister outfit Toro Rosso is also successfully racking up the miles. Max Verstappen managed more laps than any other driver on Saturday (129), and did so many practice race starts that he burnt out his clutch!

So, it's fair to say everyone in the Red Bull-Renault alliance is now happy as far as things stand in the reliability stakes. But what about the performance, which was so sorely lacking relative to the Mercedes team in 2014?

Everyone will tell you that it's "impossible to say right now" because "you don't know what everyone is doing" and "the cars will change so much before the first race".

That's all fair enough. But everyone is watching the progress of their rivals (regardless of contrary platitudes about 'focusing on ourselves') and everyone is still trying to gauge where they stand relative to the rest. That's what motorsport (indeed, all sport) is about.

Simultaneous race simulations by Ricciardo and world champion Lewis Hamilton on Friday revealed an ominous deficit on long-run pace between Red Bull and Mercedes, with the hard-tyred Mercedes generally half a second faster than the medium-shod Red Bull and almost a second per lap faster when fitted with similar medium compound Pirellis.

The general consensus says an underpowered Renault motor held Red Bull back in 2014 but that its chassis was possibly the best in the field.

The camouflaged RB11 is what Horner describes as an "evolution of RB10 that appears to have addressed some of the weaknesses". In short, a better car than last year's.

Toro Rosso's mileage bodes well for Renault on the reliability front © LAT

It is still early days, but everyone hoped - nay expected - Renault would close the power gap to Mercedes over the winter. So far, it is not clear whether Renault has succeeded.

"It's definitely got some more ponies," Ricciardo said, when asked about the new engine's performance.

"We knew it would, it's just a question how much more it will have compared to the Merc last year, and how much we can close that gap.

"Through the speed traps we're still not as fast, but I think there's still a little bit more to come. Realistically, if we've closed the gap by half we'll take that for now and then try and keep plugging away at it.

"I won't look too much into it yet. I'm aware we can still definitely improve a few things. The last test will be the most important - that's where everyone will put as much as they can on the car and see what it's really all about."

So it's possible that Renault is simply playing a waiting game before showing what it's engine can do. Horner remains tight-lipped, but describes the engine situation as a "work in progress".

That's not exactly a statement of confidence. But he does point to the fact that a re-interpretation of the engine regulations over the winter will allow Renault to make gains as the season goes on.

Spending the 'tokens' that allow each manufacturer to modify its motors will become a strategic game in 2015, now that the regulations allow all of them to continue to change the specification throughout the season, rather than freeze it before the first race.

The suggestion from Renault's technical chief Rob White is that the French marque has decided to be patient with development, ensuring it doesn't 'waste' tokens on unproven modifications that might have been rushed into the engine to meet the pre-season deadline.

"We were somewhat surprised to learn of the new interpretation of tokens being used over the course of the season," he tells AUTOSPORT.

This time last year Renault-powered cars could barely get out of the pits © XPB

"Honestly, we had a development programme that was heading towards the first race and we were expecting not to be able to do performance development in the season.

"The impact [of the change] is perhaps that stuff that doesn't make it to the first race could potentially be introduced later in the season, if we think it's a good plan.

"It changes a little bit the risk management of introducing things for the first race. Our in-season development activity had been restructured to take advantage of unused tokens at the beginning of the season.

"It's [now] less likely that one would introduce an immature spec for the first race, [because] you can produce it later when it's more mature and we're surer."

This is probably why Renault managing director Cyril Abiteboul reckons observers should wait before drawing any conclusions from where Red Bull-Renault stands just now.

"The first thing to say is the reliability is always the first thing you want to get out of the way, so you can move on with your plan," he tells AUTOSPORT. "It's fair to say that things weren't how we wanted them to be from a reliability perspective in test one, so we had to focus on that.

"It's difficult to come to any conclusion about the Red Bull-Renault package or the Toro Rosso package at this time. The closer you get to race one, the more accurate picture you will get.

"Maybe what you will see is what you will get from race one. Maybe it is true that there is more to come, and certainly I expect that there is more to come.

"We have to give our maximum and see where it takes us. I can only talk for the engine, because I don't know where things will be in terms of chassis and driver packages.

"Talking about the engine, our target was to halve the deficit at the top of this season with Mercedes, and I hope we can achieve that."

But will Red Bull-Renault achieve that aim? At the moment it seems as though it has a lot of work to do to get there before the first race - certainly if the race runs by Ricciardo and Kvyat versus Mercedes here are an accurate representation of the performance gap.

Perhaps Renault is simply saying it may need more time than initially expected. There has been much internal restructuring at its Viry base over the winter, as well as efforts to collaborate more closely with Red Bull to try to emulate the integrated design approach that has allowed the Mercedes works team to flourish.

This extensive restructuring towards a true works relationship is another reason Renault is calling for patience from those hungry to see the competitive order closed up.

"An organisation is like a human being; it's constant change, it's a constant hunt for information," Abiteboul says.

"Maybe this was not alive enough at Renault Sport and might be one reason why we struggled with new [engine] regulations.

Things are "completely different" this year, according to Horner © LAT

"The re-organisation that we kicked off internally was a new way to work with Red Bull; it's very much the start.

"It's to give a new dynamic; some form of a wake up call. It's working well so far. But having said that, [with] any change of organisation you can't expect to see the change to the product, which in our case is our F1 engine, straightaway. But hopefully it will start to pay off during the season.

"I'm fairly pleased with the new structure we have, which is about operations as well as performance and reliability. It has to demonstrate and deliver its proper results on the track. When it comes to the Red Bull friendship, it's a big thing. We're going in the right direction."

Maybe so, but the necessity is to go in the 'right direction' quickly enough, or remain left behind.

It always takes time for big organisations to reap the benefit of changes; that is something McLaren is going through right now with its new Honda project.

But Ferrari has also undergone massive change internally over the winter and appears to have come out the other side immediately refreshed.

Renault is not Ferrari, and its own obstacles will be different. But both will be judged by the stopwatch.

As ex-Red Bull star Sebastian Vettel said last year: "My experience tells me that it is easier to make a fast car reliable than a reliable car fast."

For the moment, it seems Red Bull - a team known for bucking convention - may have to turn that old motorsport adage on its head to avoid another disappointing season.

Much will depend on what tricks Renault still has lurking up its sleeve...