Could Mercedes be the biggest beneficiary of Red Bull's F1 instability?

Toto Wolff looks increasingly likely to be the only person to emerge from the civil war at the top of Red Bull smelling anything like roses. And he’d be more than a touch fortunate to do so.

Although the energy drinks company’s independent investigation into allegations made against Christian Horner by a female employee found no wrongdoing, Horner’s reputation has been damaged irreparably.

Whether he harboured ambitions of taking the top job in Formula 1 or not, it’s now tough to imagine series stakeholders ever nominating him as a replacement for Stefano Domenicali. Over in the court of social media, it won’t matter if the rumours are eventually proved wrong. The internet has already decided it’s the Verstappen camp guilty of briefing the press and leaking sensitive material to FIA and FOM bosses. No one comes away looking good.

It’s abundantly clear that this saga doesn’t end without Red Bull losing at least one of its most valuable assets: either the boss who built the team into a serial title winner and whom sponsors seem to love, or the most prodigious driving talent on the grid. When Jos Verstappen is declaring that Red Bull will “explode” if Horner remains in post, it’s clear the relationship between that family and the team principal is lying in tatters. One must surely go.

PLUS: The Beckham clues as to where Verstappen and Red Bull are heading

Verstappen Jr and Adrian Newey are among top Red Bull staffers said to have a ‘Horner clause’ in their contracts. In other words, if he goes, they can exercise a lever to follow out the door. If it’s true that Red Bull’s nascent engine programme has fallen well behind, perhaps the time is coming for Max Verstappen to fly the nest if he wants to keep topping up the trophy count. With Horner gone, his representatives can engineer a departure a bit more easily.

It appears either Verstappen or Horner may leave Red Bull in the near future

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Since Ferrari has pledged its allegiance to Charles Leclerc and now Lewis Hamilton, the plausible destination for Verstappen for 2025 and beyond is Mercedes. That was unthinkable three years ago as one of the most bitterly contested seasons in grand prix history played out. Now, though, it’s a logical outcome of the Red Bull instability.

Wolff had to let Verstappen slip through his fingers the best part of a decade ago. With Nico Rosberg and Hamilton at the team, he couldn’t offer the rising star a plausible route to the top when Red Bull could. Toto now risks doing similar with Mercedes protege Andrea
Kimi Antonelli, who is the other leading contender to directly replace Hamilton should his FIA F2 effort with Prema Racing recover from the junior team’s dismal showing in the Bahrain opener.

Whether it ends with the fall of Horner or Verstappen packing his bags, Red Bull’s current self-destruction presents Wolff with a blinding opportunity

An outcome where Mercedes signs Verstappen to partner George Russell, as Antonelli adjusts to life in F1 with a couple of years at Williams but remains on the books, would be nothing short of a masterstroke if Wolff could pull it off. Especially as, in turn, it would massively weaken key rival Red Bull. But, after two years of ground-effect misery, and an unremarkable start to 2024, it almost wouldn’t be a meritocratic outcome for the Three-Pointed Star.

PLUS: How F1's mad tea-party driver market could look if Verstappen moves to Mercedes

Perhaps Brackley and Brixworth’s preparation for 2026 will be enough for it to topple Red Bull on track fair and square. At this stage, that remains a calculated gamble if it’s even a part of Verstappen’s thought process.

Based on current form, though, you couldn’t say Mercedes landing him would be wholly deserved. So, whether it ends with the fall of Horner or Verstappen packing his bags, Red Bull’s current self-destruction presents Wolff with a blinding opportunity.

Can Wolff pull off a masterstroke for Mercedes amid Red Bull civil war?

Photo by: Shameem Fahath