Can Red Bull really win anywhere now it’s toppled a Mercedes F1 stronghold?

“This circuit, it’s been such a stronghold for Mercedes over the recent years. If we can beat them here, then really we can beat them anywhere.”

Red Bull team principal Christian Horner was pretty bullish ahead of the 2021 French Grand Prix at Paul Ricard. And so he had every right to be. Max Verstappen had just inflicted a first qualifying defeat on the Black Arrows at a track where it had taken two poles, won both races and led 105 of the 106 racing laps since Paul Ricard returned to the Formula 1 calendar in 2018.

The first two French GPs since 2008 were awful. Lifeless affairs that triggered much angst in the social media cesspool (where, in a rather rare feat, there was something of a valid criticism).

But the race just gone was very good. Not an all-time classic, but compared to what had come before it, it was a thriller. And this time it was Horner’s squad that triumphed in a race upended by a bold strategy call. Before last weekend, Red Bull’s results at Paul Ricard were second and fourth in 2018 and fourth and 10th a year later.

So, with Verstappen’s victory ahead of Lewis Hamilton, Sergio Perez and Valtteri Bottas secured, how does Horner’s pre-race claim stack up when considering the rest of the 2021 campaign?

First off, it’s important to note that this is far from the first sign that Red Bull is a genuine title threat this year – Mercedes has been saying so since testing. After those three days in Bahrain, it claimed pole for the season opener (which it should really have won), triumphed in the wet at Imola and split the Mercedes cars in Portugal.

Although it has six wins in the last eight years in Bahrain, the track is not exactly a Mercedes fortress, as the abrasive surface causes so much difficulty for the rear tyres (now much more of a factor since Mercedes’ early-hybrid-era power advantage has been erased by Honda). Imola and Portimao are relatively open, form-wise, with both of F1’s leading teams showing strongly across the four races held at these venues in six months straddling 2020-2021.

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Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B, Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12, on the opening lap

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

But Barcelona is something else entirely, with Mercedes boasting a near-perfect record in the V6 era (spoiled by that crash in 2016), which it extended with Hamilton’s charging, two-stopping win nearly seven weeks ago. Yet Red Bull was very much in contention and might’ve won had it had two cars in the lead fight. That Mercedes stronghold was very much shaken, even of the attackers were ultimately seen off…

At that event, F1 2021’s flexi-wing saga kicked off, with wing performance – particularly at the rear of the car – a key part of the title fight so far, especially at the two street circuits that preceded Paul Ricard. Both teams have swapped wing designs and downforce variations around in a bid to gain an edge or solve car weaknesses at certain tracks (particularly Mercedes in Baku, where Red Bull also introduced a new design aimed at cutting downforce and drag).

Red Bull has now secured a real statement result, by defeating Mercedes where it was previously untouchable and doing so on the weekend where new wing deflection tests were introduced (both teams still tested different wings and settings throughout Paul Ricard practice) and after its Baku tyre blowout misery.

"We’ve got three days to try and see if we can make any adjustments and improvements. And maybe if we maximise absolutely everything maybe we can give them a run for their money" Lewis Hamilton

The running conditions of the tyres that failed had been questioned and tyre pressures were raised as a result. Yet Red Bull still made it a first F1 victory hat-trick since 2013, with Verstappen’s second win of 2021.

Right now, Mercedes just edges P1 in Autosport’s supertimes calculations, which are impacted by the Monaco and Baku Q3 red flags stopping both it and Red Bull from challenging for pole, but it reckons Red Bull maintains a slight pure-pace advantage.

“We've got a good race car – we showed that [last Sunday],” says Mercedes’ director of trackside engineering, Andrew Shovlin. “I think we're lacking a bit in qualifying. But in terms of the race, on a normal circuit, we are able to put them under pressure.”

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12

Photo by: Charles Coates / Motorsport Images

Red Bull is combining pace with strong development within the very limited scope of the 2021 rules, particularly with its varying downforce packages. A lower downforce approach with the Baku-introduced rear wing helped Verstappen keep the Mercedes drivers at bay during the critical early laps on the hards in what would become his second of three stints last weekend.

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Now it heads to home ground in Austria.

“It’s a power-hungry circuit,” assessed Lewis Hamilton, after his French GP defeat. “Got those long straights – so we could see something similar to this weekend with the straightline speed of the Red Bull.

“But we’ve got three days to try and see if we can make any adjustments and improvements. And maybe, if we maximise absolutely everything, maybe we can give them a run for their money.”

Mercedes’ historical form in Austria is patchy, with the RB16’s early recalcitrant behaviour and the W11 immediately reigning supreme flattering the difference between the two squads there last year. Red Bull is the most recent winner at Silverstone – where you can bet tyre safety will be under renewed focus – and Hungary’s “Monaco without the walls” cliche should favour it there as well.

After the summer break, Red Bull’s progress will face further key tests at Spa and Monza, as these have typically started a late-season run-in where Hamilton in particular has been amazing. But, in between, the power of a first home race for Verstappen at the returning Dutch GP should not be underestimated. And, after the final European triple-header, Sochi shares track characteristics with the Baku circuit where Red Bull dominated pre-tyre blowouts.

The safety car, Sergio Perez, Red Bull Racing RB16B, and Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images

Speculation over how the rest of season will even ultimately be scheduled is unwise given the fluctuating nature of the pandemic and the travel restrictions it continues to cause. But, even with Singapore gone and major uncertainty surrounding its own stronghold events at high-altitude in Mexico and Brazil, nothing on the run-in should scare Red Bull now.

Red Bull has the momentum. Its car tweaks are working. It’s pressuring Mercedes into mistakes. Now, it must press home every advantage it has

It won’t have it easy, Mercedes and Hamilton are too good and too close to winning the races that Red Bull has taken so far, but something is really building. A prolonged, two-team title fight is finally likely to play out over the rest of the season – unforeseen 2018 German GP incidents, such as that suffered by then Ferrari driver Sebastian Vettel, aside…

PLUS: How Red Bull took French GP 'payback' on a day of Mercedes mistakes

Red Bull has the momentum. Its car tweaks are working. It’s pressuring Mercedes into mistakes. Now, it must press home every advantage it has.

It needs Perez to continue delivering strong performances in the lead fight and it needs the clinical Verstappen of lap 52 of the French GP to be dominant and not let the wayward Verstappen of the first corners reappear…

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B, 1st position, crosses the line to the delight of his team on the pit wall

Photo by: Drew Gibson / Motorsport Images