Grapevine: Statistics Say Schumacher Will Win in Oz

Michael Schumacher will open up the 2002 Formula One season with a win at the Australian Grand Prix in March, according to a team of sports statisticians.

The reigning World Champion is twice as likely to win the season-opener in Melbourne than any other driver - after more than 20,000 computer simulations of the race were played out at the city's Swinburne University.

Schumacher has a 31.1 per cent chance of clinching a hat-trick of Albert Park wins, with Briton David Coulthard the next best hope at just 14.5 per cent. Mathematicians Jonathan Lowe and Stephen Clarke are simulation experts and correctly predicted the first four finishers in the Australian Motorcycle Grand Prix in October.

The pair have also backed Schumacher to land his fifth world title next season - after the Ferrari driver was given a 72.8 per cent chance of winning the drivers' crown after more than 1,000 simulations of the whole season.

The data, which takes into account the past performance of cars and drivers, suggests that Colombian driver Juan Pablo Montoya has a 39.5 per cent chance of retiring from the Australian race.