Why Ferrari had an unusual advantage on Friday

Friday practice on the streets of Baku was a day of red - both that of the Ferraris that topped the timesheets and the flags that regularly interrupted proceedings.

Even in the abandoned first free practice session, Charles Leclerc and Sebastian Vettel were the only drivers to set lap times and completed one-third of the total laps completed across the 10 teams.

Ferrari's threatening pace took second billing to the problems that Friday's difficulties have caused all the teams, with effectively half of the day's running lost. Any conclusions drawn on a Friday are always heavily caveated, and the chaos of what is usually a very orderly day of practice on the average grand prix weekend means it's even more dangerous to be too confident about reading much into what we saw.

But there are some pointers - and Ferrari was making big gains over Mercedes in an unexpected way.

The big story of the day was that Ferrari was fastest. As so many predicted, the long 2km flat-out drag from Turn 16 down to the first corner favoured Ferrari and allowed it to outpace a Mercedes team that was quicker in many of the corners. But was that really what we saw?

A glance at the sector times paints a more complicated picture. Leclerc set the fastest sector times in all three sectors - the first two on his fastest lap of the day and, oddly, the third on his best lap on medium Pirellis earlier in practice two thanks to a tow.

That means he was also quickest in the twisty middle sector, which includes one blast from Turn 12 to 15 but wouldn't be well suited to a car that was a rocketship on the straights and struggling in the corners. Leclerc's best sector 2 time was 41.416s, with Lewis Hamilton's 41.906s.

Comparing their respective fastest laps, Hamilton was 0.110% off Leclerc in each of the first and third sectors - and a massive 1.183% off in the middle sector. So this doesn't entirely match up with the view of Ferrari making up all of its time on the straights.

"We have a bit of work to do overnight to tidy up the handling to give the drivers the confidence to really smash it" James Allison

But things are a little more complicated than that. Ferrari has a new rear wing in Baku with a deeper mainplane, the centre of which bows a little in the centre.

So Ferrari has perhaps traded some of that straightline performance to run more wing - not just giving it more downforce but also working the tyres a little harder. Overall, that's a very encouraging compromise, especially with some of the teams down the grid finding that traditional Baku-special skinny rear wings are causing some problems with getting the Pirellis working. And it's a balance that could help Ferrari beyond Azerbaijan.

Single-lap pace

1 Ferrari (Leclerc), 1m42.872s
2 Mercedes (Hamilton), 1m43.541s
3 Red Bull (Verstappen), 1m43.793s
4 Toro Rosso (Kvyat), 1m44.177s
5 McLaren (Sainz), 1m44.183s
6 Haas (Magnussen), 1m44.901s
7 Alfa Romeo (Giovinazzi), 1m45.366s
8 Racing Point (Perez), 1m45.436s
9 Renault (Ricciardo), 1m45.483s
10 Williams (Kubica), 1m48.111s

The unusual number of times we saw a Mercedes up an escape road confirms that the W10 wasn't the easiest to get on top of for the drivers. Admittedly, the runoff at Turn 3 and Turn 8 in particular had plenty of customers throughout Friday's running, but as Mercedes technical director James Allison indicates the car wasn't quite dialled in for an attacking lap.

"This isn't an easy track at the best of times, but made more complex by losing the whole of FP1," said Allison. "Nevertheless, FP2 went smoothly; we managed to get a good look at both tyres and a quick check of rear wing level as well with Lewis.

"We're not where we need to be lap for the single lap work, but looked reasonably paced for the longer runs. So we have a bit of work to do overnight to tidy up the handling to give the drivers the confidence to really smash it around the lap and then hopefully we'll have a good weekend."

On the positive side, Hamilton is happier with the feel of the Mercedes this year than he was in Baku in 2018. Then, he lucked into victory but was quick to point out that it didn't feel like he deserved it. So the car is closer to where he needs it to be than it was last time. And Allison's comment about checking the rear wing level suggests Mercedes is still working on its downforce/drag compromise.

With so much running lost on day one, there's plenty of scope for Mercedes to chip away at the gap and change the picture for Saturday. Hamilton said he expects to make gains but that Ferrari will still have the advantage. But he would say that, wouldn't he?

It is true that the long runs, such as they were, do suggest Mercedes is in a stronger position and not 0.669s off the pace as the single-lap pace suggests. But given the fact teams were attempting to condense three hours of running into just 90 red flag-interrupted minutes in practice two, the data is extremely patchy.

On the soft tyres, of the Ferraris only Leclerc did a 'long run', which amounted to three laps, interrupted by a red flag. Those three laps averaged out at a not-very-rapid 1m48.712s.

Valtteri Bottas cobbled together four flying laps on softs, also interrupted, at an average of 1m47.926s. Red Bull driver Max Verstappen, meanwhile, did four laps at 1m47.605s after splitting the two Mercedes on single-lap pace.

On the mediums, over three laps Vettel lapped at 1m47.649s, just over a tenth faster than Hamilton's seven laps at 1m47.768s. Pierre Gasly, during a difficult session for Red Bull, put in four counting laps at 1m48.124s.

It's difficult to conclude too much from that, other than to say that there's no evidence Ferrari has a big advantage but that any evidence suggesting otherwise is weak. The running on the softs was so perfunctory and interrupted that it's difficult to draw any real conclusions other than broadly agreeing that Mercedes probably is a little better off on race pace after day one.

This is a track where a driver's skill, comfort and judgement can create a larger performance swing

In the midfield pack, Alex Albon backed up Toro Rosso's single-lap pace with a medium run at 1m48.813s, but perhaps the most eye-catching was Kimi Raikkonen's pace for Alfa Romeo. He lapped at 1m48.320s on the mediums, probably the most impressive of the midfielders - although it should be noted Sergio Perez also showed a handy turn of pace on mediums that would slot Racing Point in ahead of Toro Rosso.

So what conclusions can we draw from all of that? Overall, Ferrari's set-up approach appears to be working, parlaying its speed on the straights into carrying more wing that achieves a better compromise.

Mercedes will likely close the gap overnight, but whether it will be by enough to challenge remains to be seen. The one area where both teams did achieve parity was in playing up the strength of their rival outfit!

"I don't like Friday predictions, but I think also it's very difficult," said Vettel.

"Around here it's a lot about getting the right lap, finding the rhythm and so on, and it was a difficult day for that, with red flags and many interruptions.

"But overall I think it was OK, I feel that we can still improve for tomorrow, and if we do so I think it can be quite close with Mercedes - they looked very strong also today."

But given the number of mistakes we saw on Friday, Vettel also offered a reminder that this is a track where a driver's skill, comfort and judgement can in itself create a larger performance swing than on the average track.

"It's about having the confidence with the car," he said. "So many big stops after high-speed braking, and very little reference around the track, bumps, we saw it today as well, easy to do mistakes and go straight.

"That will be decisive tomorrow - to have a good feeling with the car, and we're working to have a better feeling tomorrow."