The meeting that could define F1's future

Next Tuesday a gathering of Formula 1 stakeholders in London will, in theory, be a major stepping stone towards determining its future direction - a process that cannot start soon enough, if team bosses are to be believed.

The clock is ticking relentlessly towards 2021. Melbourne last weekend marked exactly 24 months until the first grand prix that's due to take place under new sporting and technical regulations and with a completely new financial framework.

For the teams it's substantially less than that to the cut-off point for signing off on key elements of the designs of their 2021 cars. And while F1 folk are noted for their ability to move quickly and think on their feet, the changes to the championship are so big and so wide-ranging that time will disappear very quickly.

In a further twist, the lack of a signed Concorde Agreement means that there is no governance process covering what happens beyond 2021, and thus the FIA's own International Sporting Code specifies that regulations have to be finalised by the end of June, leaving just a three-month window.

As Red Bull Racing boss Christian Horner noted last month, it's already '10 past midnight' in terms of us knowing exactly what F1 will look like in 2021, and it's getting later.

It was in Bahrain on April 6 last year that F1 CEO Chase Carey and head of motorsport Ross Brawn presented their blueprint for the future, which crucially included the thorny subject of how the new owners wanted to see revenue distributed between the teams.

The two-page bullet-point version released to the media covered the basics of five key issues; namely power units, cost controls and reduction, technical regulations, revenue distribution, and governance.

It was made crystal clear that teams would be forced to cut spending and that revenue distribution would be "more balanced", while adding that "F1's unique, historical franchise and value must and will still be recognised". In other words, Ferrari could still get a little extra.

The Bahrain meeting last year was very much a presentation and not a debate. The F1 bosses simply showed the teams what they had planned, much of which had been drip fed over the previous months in one-on-one meetings with teams.

"We have the cost control, which is a new initiative, which is quite well advanced" Jean Todt

There were mixed reactions in the paddock, with the current have-nots clearly a lot happier with what was unveiled than the current haves.

Reducing revenue for the big players, and forcing them to restrict deployment of the massive resources to which they have access, was not something that they were ever going to take lightly.

It was obvious that they saw Liberty's position as just a starting point and that there was plenty of horse trading to come. That became clear when top team bosses left the meeting and had a private huddle of their own...

As one team principal told Autosport in Australia last weekend: "I think some people thought that we would talk about it some more in Azerbaijan and sign everything in Spain..."

That was unlikely to happen. Indeed, when Carey, FIA president Jean Todt and the representatives of the 10 teams walk into the London meeting next week, 354 days will have passed since that Bahrain presentation, and nothing has been set in stone on any of the five key areas.

Crucially there is no Concorde Agreement, and thus no teams are committed to the sport after 31 December 2020. Unlike Bahrain, the London meeting will be integrated into the formal FIA governance process, and thus it will involve debate between the parties, some voting, and established procedures for moving things on to the next stage at World Motor Sport Council level.

Such meetings are routine, but this one takes on special resonance because of the timing and the obvious need to get things moving.

In Melbourne last weekend Carey and Todt sat side-by-side in a rare joint press conference and they made it clear that next week will see a big push towards sorting out 2021.

"Like [always] in F1, it's ongoing discussions," Todt noted. "So it takes time. We will have a Strategy Group meeting on 26 March in London and we will have also the F1 Commission on the same day.

"We should be ready with the global package. And the global package is on one side, the commercial side, the financial side, which is under the responsibility of F1. We have the cost control, which is a new initiative, which is quite well advanced.

"We have the engine regulations, which have been sent to the teams a few days ago, and we have the chassis regulations, and we have the governance. So they are all the different chapters on which we are working and we should be in a position to have the final package to discuss with the teams on 26 March."

Todt is the one talking things up and who thus might be disappointed if little hard progress is made this week. Carey, never very comfortable when it comes to revealing anything about what might going on behind the scenes, was a little more cagey.

"Obviously there's been a lot of speculation and talk," said the American. "Both about changes to the car and what goes on on the track in 2021, and probably more so around the core relationships that Jean just touched on, revenue, cost, governance.

"I think those discussions - and everybody wants to have them on stage with an audience - they're best had privately between us and the teams."

The past year clearly hasn't been entirely wasted, and Carey spent much of the Melbourne weekend ducking in and out of hospitality buildings, networking with team bosses, continuing to nudge things along.

"We need clarity, because there is a lot of talk going on" Gunther Steiner

"I think we have made good headway," he said. "There is a general direction we are going with everything, and then you get into the details, and if you've got 10 teams, there are 10 different views on the details.

"That's part of what thrashing it out is. It's not unique in the world to try to find the right compromises. But I think directionally we're excited about the opportunity to really provide a platform that the sport, from 2021, can really take off from."

So what are the teams expecting from next week? As one of the three major players who continue to benefit from favourable financial deals struck with Bernie Ecclestone, as well as being one of the four power unit manufacturers, Mercedes has a lot to lose. Team principal Toto Wolff has at least, with some reservations, accepted that a cost cap is coming.

"I feel that there's some momentum in the process," said Wolff. "And we are all keen on understanding how 2021 looks. Mercedes certainly is interested in having a cost cap implemented, at the right levels, so it makes sense for everybody. Get the big teams on board in a way that is implementable.

"Regulations are obviously another big building block, this is important to get over the line. So let's see how next week goes, but what I hear is making me optimistic."

At the other end of the scale there's Haas, a team with one of the more modest budgets in the pitlane and which runs with a unique business model - one that could be directly impacted by changes to F1's listed parts - in other words which elements of the package it has to design and build itself, rather than buy from its deal with Ferrari.

Below the radar there has been a debate about suspension components, with Haas adamant that it's not set up to make its own. Team principal Gunther Steiner is less bullish than Wolff about progress - which may reflect the fact that more of Liberty's energies have gone into courting the big players.

"We need clarity, because there is a lot of talk going on," said the Haas boss. "I think now Chase is ready to present something to us; let's see what he presents and go from there. I don't know in the end what F1 has come up with.

"But there are a lot of things, the governance, the budget cap, the technical regulations. If we get it all done in one meeting, good for us. Yeah, good luck..."

Another team keen to see costs reined in - and clarity over shared parts - is Toro Rosso. Franz Tost is confident that things are moving on.

"It's a very important meeting because the teams need answers now," said Tost. "The teams need direction, where the regulations go. I am convinced that Liberty and the FIA will find the right way and come up with new regulations and come up with a new F1 from 2021.

"It's one year since Bahrain, OK, but in the meantime a lot of things happened. There were many working group meetings, and I think we will see the result next week."

However, he stresses the urgency: "We have to address money distribution, it cannot be that a couple of teams get nearly all the money and the rest nothing. We have to find solutions and we have to make decisions now, because time is running away. We are already in March and once the season starts, it's gone."

"The things that can't wait are financial distribution, governance and the budget cap. The sustainability is important, because that will define if F1 is still a compelling and attractive platform for 2021" Cyril Abiteboul

Somewhere in between the two extremes of Mercedes and Haas/Toro Rosso is Renault, a manufacturer like Mercedes, but one that currently operates with a smaller budget and faces strong internal pressure to make sure that F1 provides bang for buck.

"There is no progress that would make headlines, I would say," said team boss Cyril Abiteboul. "The progress has been at a sort of working level. There is lots of dialogue between the teams and F1 and the FIA, in particular on the budget cap. That's a very complex set of new regulations.

"So every day, every week, we are making progress to address some of the concerns. As far as Renault is concerned, because we think that something needs to be seriously done to contain the costs to be competitive in F1, we are massively in support of the budget cap.

"Is it the perfect answer? Maybe not. Is it the best answer? Probably. That's why we're working very actively to make it as robust as possible. Lots of progress is being done on that aspect."

Abiteboul accepts that the technical regulations are some way from being finalised, but he's adamant that understanding the commercial aspects is the priority for a company like Renault. It has to know as soon as possible what it's likely to be spending (and indeed earning) in 2021 and beyond.

"I think we all accept that everyone needs to have some form of clarity before the summer," he says. "In order to do that we need to seriously get things ticked off, in particular on the financial side, on the governance.

"The three things that can't wait are the financial distribution, the governance and the budget cap. Anything that's related to the business and the sustainability of the business model is important, because that's what will define whether or not F1 is still a compelling and attractive platform for 2021.

"Then I'd say that the set of regulations is almost secondary. Once the budget cap is introduced then we move the exposure to the cost of the regulations, and then they can define almost any regulation they want. That's our opinion. That's why this in particularly is very important to be sorted."

Abiteboul has some sympathy with Carey and his colleagues, for he knows that keeping multiple teams happy is a difficult challenge from Renault's experience of supplying engines.

"It's complex," he added. "They are trying to reconcile teams that have business models, very distinctive set-ups. Right now it looks like they are not prepared to upset anyone. The danger is that by doing that they end up upsetting everyone...

"That's why I think it's taking a lot of time to find something that would satisfy everyone. I can see where they're coming from. But I think the main thing is to make sure that F1 is and remains attractive.

"Right now it looks like they are afraid of losing one team, two teams, three teams. I think what's really important is instead of having to live in fear we make F1 a platform that is again attractive enough to attract enough teams, so you are not held to ransom by anyone."

How much real progress will be made in the various areas up for debate on March 26, and what will be agreed and passed on to the next stage? Let's see what F1 and the FIA are prepared to reveal after the meeting...