Why Red Bull looks unbeatable in Monaco

Every indicator during the opening day of practice for the Monaco Grand Prix points to Red Bull being the team to beat. The question is, can it buck the trend of recent times by carrying that form into qualifying?

Monaco is an unusual track - so unusual that Friday practice takes place on a Thursday. The caveats that always apply during the opening day of practice - those of run programmes, the track evolution to come, set-up improvements - are even more weighty here so Red Bull cannot afford to relax and assume Monaco glory will come its way. But it's looking good. Very good.

Daniel Ricciardo's fastest time in the afternoon session was a mammoth 0.572 seconds quicker than the next-best car - the Ferrari of Sebastian Vettel. When you consider Max Verstappen would have been three quarters of a tenth faster had he strung his three fastest sectors, this is hugely promising for Red Bull.

Single-lap pace

1 Red Bull (Ricciardo), 1m11.841s
2 Ferrari (Vettel), 1m12.413s
3 Mercedes (Hamilton), 1m12.536s
4 Renault (Hulkenberg), 1m13.047s
5 McLaren (Vandoorne), 1m13.077s
6 Toro Rosso (Hartley), 1m13.222s
7 Force India (Perez), 1m13.370s
8 Williams (Sirotkin), 1m13.547s
9 Haas (Magnussen), 1m13.572s
10 Sauber (Leclerc), 1m13.575s

There is no other track on the calendar where a team's single-lap pace is so overpoweringly important given the difficulty in overtaking, which means Red Bull can be very encouraged by its big advantage over the rest.

"It doesn't mean too much, but what we can say is that the circuit is very quick this year," said Red Bull team principal Christian Horner of his team's pace.

"Both drivers seem reasonably comfortable in the car, but as we've seen Saturday has been our weakness throughout the season. We've always had a strong race car, but Saturday is where we've tended to struggle, at the business end of qualifying.

"Hopefully with the shorter straights here and with this circuit layout, it offers us our best qualifying chance of the season."

Despite the caution, Red Bull can be expected not just to take pole position but to lock out the front row. Even factoring in the engine mode advantages enjoyed by both Mercedes and Ferrari over those with Renault propulsion, it seems unlikely such a swing against Red Bull will happen. Given the lack of straights here the pattern of strong practice day, then weak Saturday is unlikely to repeat even if things will likely get closer.

At Massenet, Ricciardo stood out for the way he kept the minimum speed up and glided through the corner, while Verstappen's ability to harry the car impressed

"Ferrari will be there on Saturday and today it looked like Mercedes can be there as well," warned Ricciardo. "It's going to be a good fight, we're in the fight so that's nice.

"It's a good statement and there's a day off tomorrow so the others can sleep, still thinking about us, and then Saturday we've just got to repeat it all.

"I think it will be closer [over the weekend]. Our gap from practice to qualifying isn't normally as big as what Ferrari and Mercedes can find. I still feel if we can put together a really good lap we have a very good chance. That's my job on Saturday."

What Ricciardo says is absolutely right. If the Red Bull drivers do their job, they should lock out the front row.

Critically, Red Bull passes the 'eye test' as well as the lap time test. Watching at the chicane early during the first free practice session, on several occasions both Ricciardo and Verstappen looked to be carrying too much speed in but made it stick.

And up at the Massenet left-hander, an underrated challenge, both were able to carry good speed through the corner. Ricciardo stood out for his ability to keep the minimum speed up and almost glide through, Verstappen for his ability to harry the car. In the hands of both, the RB14 looked responsive and quick.

It's unlikely the pattern of recent races, in which frontrunners have qualified on a harder tyre to avoid using the softest one in the race, will be a factor in Monaco.

The peak performance delta between the hypersofts that are making their race debut here and the ultrasofts is 0.9-1.0s per lap. And with a gap of 1.2s from the front to the midfield, it would be an extremely dicey move - doubly so for Mercedes and Ferrari.

But even if qualifying could be predictable, the battle for best of the rest looks stunningly close. Just 0.528s separates class leader Renault from Sauber at the back, ensuring the battles to make it through Q1 and Q2 should be more gripping than those at the front.

When it comes to long-run pace, Red Bull also looks strong. The runs on hypersofts pointed to an advantage of around four tenths of a second over Ferrari, albeit with the caveat that neither Vettel nor Kimi Raikkonen did especially long runs using that compound.

But it should be noted both did run longer on ultrasofts, setting a decent pace.

Here's how the long-run pace works out, judged over an average of six laps with anomalous slow ones eliminated.

Long-run pace

1 Red Bull (Ricciardo), 1m15.174s
2 Ferrari (Vettel), 1m15.598s*
3 Mercedes (Hamilton), 1m15.978s
4 Renault (Sainz), 1m16.434s
5 Toro Rosso (Hartley), 1m16.599s
6 Haas (Magnussen), 1m16.744s
7 McLaren (Alonso), 1m16.762s*
8 Williams (Sirotkin), 1m16.767s
9 Sauber (Leclerc), 1m16.811s
10 Force India (Ocon), 1m16.980s

*set over shorter runs

Mercedes, as expected, has the third-fastest car on both single-lap and long-run pace, but the way Lewis Hamilton has hustled the car around the streets suggests he can be close enough to be a thorn in the side of anyone ahead of him.

"We have understood what happened last year in terms of set-up," said team boss Toto Wolff, referencing arguably the team's worst weekend of 2017. "We have improved our simulation tools and I think we know our weaknesses."

As for Ferrari, question marks over the way it operates its ERS and any potential gain it may have been benefiting from early in the season will certainly not apply here. But even so, Monaco is a chassis circuit far more than a power circuit, and its chassis remains strong enough to be thereabouts.

Further back, the 'class B' battle looks no less competitive on single-lap pace, with just 0.546s separating the best - Renault - from the worst - Force India. They'll all end up parked in a Sunday afternoon traffic jam anyway, meaning a good result will be on the cards for those who qualify well.

This clump of cars could also pose a problem for the leaders, especially as inevitably there will be some midfield runners that do end up not starting on the hypersofts.

Right now it looks like Red Bull's weekend. But even if it's only Ricciardo vs Verstappen, it will be fascinating to see how their battle plays out

But while the race is set to be a one-stopper, there is some genuine intrigue surrounding the tyres. The track will continue to evolve between now and Sunday, but there are problems with graining - in particular the front-left.

"Today we had some graining on all four tyres, but more on the front left and this is clearly generating some degradation especially on the softest compound," said Pirelli motorsport manager Mario Isola.

"Degradation today is quite high, it's not a surprise because the hypersoft is a really soft compound.

"One-stop is the favourite strategy for everybody because nobody wants to be back in traffic at a circuit where you cannot overtake, but if the degradation is quite high and some teams are not finding a good set-up to manage the graining two stops is not excluded.

"The ability to control the graining will probably be the key during the race."

Most likely, teams will get on top of the graining through the combination of significant track evolution and set-up changes, but it does throw a potential curveball into the mix. If you have more graining, whereby rubber is rolled across the surface of the tyre from the edge, degradation is accelerated.

That could have strategic implications, both because it might impact the length of the first stint on hypersofts and, more importantly, because it might limit the performance available to a driver to attack to cover the strategies of others with a quick lap late in the stint.

That might increase the power of the undercut and force teams into stopping earlier than ideally wanted.

Even with that risk, right now it's looking like Red Bull's weekend - after all, it has been strong on tyre management all season on top of the prodigious pace it is showing so far here. But even if it's just Ricciardo versus Verstappen, it will be fascinating to see how their battle plays out.

Verstappen has a lot to prove after his difficult start to the season, while Ricciardo is probably still smarting from the pitstop error that cost him victory here in 2016. The team will be hoping that battle doesn't boil over into self-defeat for either driver given how strong the car looks.

After all, while Red Bull holds the aces strange things do happen in Monaco. And although 28 times drivers have won from pole position in Monte Carlo, that doesn't mean a rare Red Bull Saturday triumph, and only its second pole position of the V6 hybrid era, would automatically lead to victory.

But what it does mean is that, based on 'Friday', it looks like Red Bull can only be beaten by misadventure or misfortune.