Why Red Bull must gamble on Honda

Stick or twist? This is the question Red Bull must answer as it considers whether to continue to use Renault or switch to Honda propulsion in 2019. When the deal was first done for Toro Rosso to become Honda's works Formula 1 partner last year, this seemed an optimistic hit and hope with a low probability of paying off, but Pierre Gasly's fourth place in the Bahrain Grand Prix proves it has become a more serious proposition.

Bahrain was just one performance and, even in the back of a car produced by one of F1's more modest teams, a gap of almost a second in qualifying to the Red Bull-Renault does not represent a miracle. But it suggests Honda is finally making real progress and the performance gap between it and Renault is narrowing.

Red Bull has attempted to do deals with both Mercedes and Ferrari in the past, but any such supply agreement is off the table. After all, why would either manufacturer want to power a team with the design capabilities to make it a threat against the works operations?

When Honda was all at sea with McLaren it would have been madness for Red Bull to even consider it as a supply option. With any prospect of a fifth engine supplier joining the party a long way off, Red Bull faced Hobson's Choice - either continue with Renault or leave a big, empty space between the monocoque and gearbox.

The Toro Rosso deal has transformed this landscape. If Honda disappointed then the former Minardi team was a sacrificial lamb Red Bull could afford to cast into competitive oblivion for a few seasons given the financial advantages of the deal. But it also offered the chance to evaluate Honda's performance, working practices and development potential in infinitely greater depth than if it were in the back of another team's car.

Red Bull could even take the benefit of its junior team having already adapted a Renault-powered design concept to a Honda one in double quick time. Today, Renault is still the better choice for Red Bull. But in the longer, or even medium, term that could change.

Pre-season, the talk was of the deficit between Honda and Renault engines being in the order of half-a-second per lap. In Bahrain, it was probably half that. The peak power deficit is reckoned to be just 12bhp, and although that is far too simple a way to evaluate relative engine performance, it is still telling.

A 27bhp step slated for the Canadian Grand Prix could make Honda the third most potent power unit supplier in F1

Red Bull is still in a holding pattern and following developments closely. Renault will have to supply it with engines in 2019 if Red Bull demands it, and while publicly it has been given an end of May deadline the real cut-off point is understood to be around the end of the summer. So Red Bull does have time on its side.

The crucial moment will likely be an upgrade currently slated for the Canadian Grand Prix in June, which Honda hopes will produce a step of around 27bhp. Renault will not be standing still, but there's a possibility this could make Honda the third most potent power unit supplier in F1.

Honda upgrades have disappointed before, so there's no guarantee of this being delivered, but if it does happen then it will strengthen Red Bull's case for change. There's also the question of all-round performance. Peak power is one thing, but Honda still needs to prove it can also ensure its ERS package is maximised, as well as improving its V6, in particular when it comes to mastering the advanced combustion technology its rivals have made significant gains with.

Historically, Honda has struggled on end-of-straight speed, when the high-revving MGU-H can be used to deliver recovered energy direct to the MGU-K for deployment without it counting in the per-lap energy limit of what can be discharged from the battery.

Bahrain, you might say, is a power circuit and Toro Rosso's performance there suggests all is going well, but it's an unusual track, which particularly privileges the kick off the corner and therefore drivability and traction, so that weakness is mitigated.

Toro Rosso went into its partnership with Honda confident the performance of the engine was better than the perception given by the outside world. This was based on the ongoing performance analysis conducted by all of the teams, and that view has been given further credibility by McLaren's difficulties since switching to Renault.

While McLaren struggled for driveability when running Honda and has found an improvement after changing to Renault, Toro Rosso has found the reverse.

"I don't know what it was like last year, so it's difficult to comment on the past," says Toro Rosso technical director James Key when asked whether the driveability of the Honda has improved from 2017. "But our reference is that whilst we didn't have major issues last year, this year is generally, from driver comment, better, and from what we've seen in the data it's not a major issue at all.

"On the positive side, when we have had a few little holes in the torque exiting corners and that's caused a bit of instability, Honda have been very quick to address that and improve it. It's an improvement for us going from 2017 to '18. What issues they had last year, I don't know, but it's certainly not a weakness. Is it a surprise? It was a welcome step that maybe wasn't expected."

There's also the benefit for Red Bull of, for the first time, becoming a genuine works team in F1. There were times, particularly during the previous generation of F1 engines, when it was the de facto works Renault team, but this would be very different.

Toro Rosso, in public at least, claims the working relationship with Honda has been very encouraging, achieved by establishing a collaborative process. For example, Honda was permitted to lengthen the V6 engine by a couple of centimetres this year to improve performance and reliability and Toro Rosso accommodated this.

McLaren always pushed Honda hard on its packaging demands (remember the infamous 'size zero' 2015 car) and by making this a more two-way street perhaps Honda is given, literally, more room to breathe.

This is the fifth year of the V6 rules and Renault has still not convinced anyone it has the know-how and investment level to match Ferrari and Mercedes

Anyone who knows anything about the history of Adrian Newey and Red Bull might sound alarm bells here. After all, just look at the super-slim side pods of the Red Bull and their packaging demands. But this is all about setting the compromise correctly. Newey forces aggressive solutions, certainly, but his days of forceful lack of compromise are perhaps behind him. So, a Newey and Honda combination would be an intriguing one.

Red Bull's thinking is straightforward: it is looking for performance. Currently it has a Renault engine lacking the performance and reliability to win the world championship. In particular, it is missing the extreme qualifying modes that would allow Red Bull to start races up front.

Honda has a qualifying mode of sorts, one that some suggests in relative terms is worth a bigger step than anything Renault can offer, and this is another area it is understood to be working hard on improving this year.

If Honda can continue its upward trend, and Renault continues to flounder while waiting for a major ERS upgrade currently promised (very vaguely) for sometime later in the season, but is reliant on an unraced and unready MGU-K that has been knocking around for over a year, the case for making the change gains strength.

This is the fifth year of the V6 turbo hybrid engine regulations and Renault has still not convinced anyone it has the technical know-how and, crucially, the investment level to match Ferrari and Mercedes. Having its own works team sucking up money won't help, and the feeling in Red Bull is that it does need a change to get back to championship-winning ways.

The question of the new engines for 2021 does complicate matters for Red Bull. If this were a binary question of Renault or Honda, then it would be more straightforward, but with Porsche and Aston Martin hanging around on the periphery of the new rules discussions, Red Bull has to consider the possibility of a fifth engine manufacturer coming into play.

But it is understood Red Bull's focus is on getting the best possible engine package in the car at any given time, and there's no reason why a Honda switch for 2019 and '20 would preclude a subsequent change for the new rules. Provided, of course, Honda is happy. But in Honda's case, beggars can't be choosers, and the chance to join one of F1's pre-eminent teams is clearly its objective.

Honda has failed more than it has succeeded since returning to F1, and despite McLaren's struggles since switching to Renault, it would be a mistake to assume Honda's engine programme is now guaranteed to succeed.

But the signs are encouraging, which on top of McLaren itself being confident Honda would eventually get there but not being willing to wait, makes it a valid roll of the dice for Red Bull.

Given its struggles over recent years, such confidence in Renault is not in great supply at Red Bull, so already it would be well-disposed towards a move. There's already enough evidence to say the gamble would be worth taking, and in a few months, the definitive evidence might make it look even less of a risk.

A Honda alternative looks more appealing by the day

Switching to a manufacturer that has been so troubled since returning to F1 cannot be taken lightly, or on the basis of a single race weekend. But Red Bull has all the data and insight needed to know if it's worth the risk, and is already extremely interested in what it's seeing.

Discarding an engine package that can at least win the odd race should not be done lightly, but Renault's troubles mean the risk is justified based on limited evidence from Honda. In order to win, sometimes you have to be willing to risk losing.

Most importantly, Red Bull now has a realistic alternative to Renault. An alternative that looks more appealing by the day.