How Bottas can beat Hamilton – by the man who did it

There's an old adage in motor racing that says 'you're only as good as your last race'. And thankfully for Valtteri Bottas, he heads to Melbourne as the man in form, courtesy of victory in the previous grand prix, in the twilight desert of Abu Dhabi last November.

Earlier that month, Bottas was in the UK for a Monster Energy event at Mercedes-Benz World, on the site of the pre-war Brooklands race track. There he spoke at length about his first season at Mercedes and the work he was going to put in over the winter to be better prepared for 2018.

He agreed that Lewis Hamilton could "drive around" some of the trickier aspects of the now notorious W08 'diva' citing his team-mate's greater mechanical experience at "this family of car". Despite having competed in 18 grands prix for Mercedes up to this point, Bottas continued: "It's still new to me and I've been discovering different set-ups for various circuits and between us we've ended up going down quite different routes with the car."

In his first season with Mercedes, Bottas scored three victories, all at low-grip venues with short-radius corners: Sochi, Red Bull Ring and Yas Marina. A combination of track that certainly suits his style, the opposite to three where he admits he struggled the most: Spa, Suzuka and Sepang.

"Those tracks have longer corners where you put more energy through the tyres," he says. "I can see where I need to work in terms of my driving style and how I set up the car in those kinds of circuits. But I've learnt massively this past year and I know now that if I went back to them, I would perform better."

After initially signing a one-year deal, Mercedes has committed to the Finn for another season, but for 2019 it is considering its options, such as out-of-contract Daniel Ricciardo or Mercedes-backed junior Esteban Ocon. For Bottas to retain the seat he needs to be closer to his team-mate or even beat him. But is there a tougher task in Formula 1 than beating Lewis Hamilton?

"I know someone who did," smiles Nico Rosberg as he's quizzed on the impending grand prix season for the latest issue of F1 Racing magazine. Rosberg famously quit as champion at the end of 2016 after beating Hamilton in the title-decider - and his sudden vacant seat was filled by Bottas. So, one year on, what advice would Rosberg give to his replacement?

"I know the level Lewis and I pushed each other too and Valtteri has to do the same" Nico Rosberg on Bottas vs Hamilton

"Give yourself time and be patient," he says, but then considers the fact he is only contracted for one more season... "Actually, he hasn't got any more time, has he?

"Valtteri needs to start being consistently close to Lewis now, which he can do, he's got the skills. Last year he was dropped into deep water which can lead to inconsistency."

Throughout 2017, Bottas admits he was never 100% comfortable with the car and had three seat changes across the year, something that causes Nico to break into guffaws when told...

"Ha! That makes me laugh because I was always known as the one forever making seat changes, so now they have another driver like that."

When Rosberg pushed Hamilton all the way to the 2016 crown, it created such a poisonous atmosphere that team boss Toto Wolff subsequently described it as "nuclear war". Wolff has also conceded Bottas's placid nature has benefitted Hamilton but, while that makes a harmonious team atmosphere, it isn't going to help Bottas's long-term cause.

"I know the level Lewis and I pushed each other too and Valtteri has to do the same," says Rosberg. "Lewis is one of the best out there - and one of the best of all time, so you need to push pretty hard to beat that."

When you think of the lengths the two former Mercedes team-mates went to, two moments spring to mind. The first is the epic duel between Hamilton and Rosberg under the floodlights of Bahrain 2014 when the pair drove as if they were karting once more - passing and re-passing on-track. And the second momentous occasion was the first-lap contact in the 2016 Spanish Grand Prix, when they took each other out.

"Did we make contact, I can't remember," says Rosberg deadpan.

But, we ask, was it true in the aftermath that Hamilton threatened to quit?

"Are you trying to dig out all the insider knowledge? You're looking to get a detail that hasn't been exposed yet? Unfortunately, I can't give you such details... but let me tell you, it was intense and there were serious consequences for further 'mis-doings'."

So, Rosberg won't be drawn any further on the aftermath of their crash - and warns Bottas against a repeat with Hamilton. But, going back to Bahrain 2014, does he think we'll see more wheel-to-wheel action between Bottas and Hamilton this coming season?

"No, but that's because of the aerodynamics," he says pessimistically. "The new cars make a terrible turbulence for the guy behind and it has to be changed either in a real way or in some sort of artificial way. What I mean by that is that it doesn't look too artificial, like DRS does sometimes.

"Why is MotoGP more fun to watch? Because there is no aero and they are constantly able to fight it out. F1 is great, but if they could improve that problem it would be huge for the sport.

"Aerodynamics are the fundamental area of competition between teams and they are also what make the cars so visibly fast and exciting to watch in the corners. Everyone has a different opinion and it's not easy to find a solution. That's what I would change about the sport and I believe [F1's new owners] Liberty are working flat-out on that now."

As we are about to board a series of aeroplanes to make the long-haul trip to Australia, we can discount an epic on-track duel between Bottas and Hamilton at Albert Park and the reigning champion is overwhelming favourite for the victory. "And he's quick there too," adds Rosberg.

For Bottas to have a chance of winning in Australia, he'll have to focus on qualifying, something he readily admits is an area where he's going to up his game for 2018.

"I'm expecting much better for this year," says Valtteri. "I've learnt from the whole team and from Lewis and I've analysed everything so I can start a new season with a team I know and with a car I know much better.

"Yes, qualifying will be critical as overtaking is tricky and Lewis is a pretty good qualifier... so, yes, I definitely need to work on that. All round I'm expecting much more."

So, what will Mercedes do for 2019 if Hamilton once again proves too difficult to beat?

"I think they'll keep Valtteri," says Rosberg as a final thought. "There's no reason to change the line-up as they like the way that dynamic works - and as long as Lewis keeps winning, that's fine."

That might be OK for Mercedes and Hamilton, but Bottas will want to have a say in bringing his team-mate's winning momentum to an end.