F1 braced for another year of politics

After the most fractious season in recent Formula 1 history things can only get better - but, as the countdown to 2015's opening race commences, the overriding question is whether the words of the Labour Party's 1997 electioneering - "things can only get better" - will resonate through F1's insular paddocks.

The good news is that F1 could so easily come to its senses; the bad that such a scenario is highly unlikely given the proliferation of alpha males in the paddock, all intent on not only grabbing the whole pie, but gobbling it. Battles will be fought on three fronts: political power, fiscal power, and last, but certainly not least, horsepower.

Indeed, the last-named is likely to provide the initial battle ground as Mercedes comes under attack over its hard-earned engine advantage, having played the regulations - agreed by all participants, and signed off and ratified by the Formula 1 Commission and FIA's World Motorsport Council respectively, remember - to the last letter.

But, in the end, Ferrari and Renault did get their way thanks to a loophole allowing changes to be made during the season. And this without resorting to further lobbying in the hope of pushing through a change for 2016 that is no longer needed.

The situation has seriously "annoyed" Honda, which is believed to have requested a meeting with the governing body over the situation. Benefitting teams have suddenly downplayed any advantages to be gleaned by what has been a cack-handed U-turn - if there are so few advantages why have Renault and Ferrari pushed so hard for change? It is unlikely that Honda and McLaren will take the situation lying down.

McLaren and Honda are not happy with the current engine situation © XPB

But, this small victory is unlikely to appease commercial rights holder Formula One Management, which remains anti 'green' power units on three fronts: lack of noise, cost (reduction will lessen the clammer for increased shares of the sport's revenues) and their puny image.

Indeed, FOM boss Bernie Ecclestone is said to still favour a return to 'old iron' V8s or a switch to twin turbo V6 units complemented by KERS-lite systems.

During the last round of 2014 summits the have-nots (and, saliently, FOM) failed to force through engine format changes, and, with F1's regulatory framework changing - amendments for the following year need be agreed by 70 per cent majority before March 1 (unanimity thereafter) rather than the previous date of June 30 - intense lobbying is expected even before pre-season testing commences on February 1.

However, in 2015 the politicking is likely to be subtler than of late, for all protagonists are aware that the eyes of the European Commission are focused on F1's regulatory process, with the make-up and powers of the 'non-executive' Strategy Group likely to come under intense scrutiny. It will be fascinating to observe the power struggle between the FIA, FOM, and six enfranchised teams.

In fact this week it emerged that certain players have already been questioned - according to sources the investigations could stretch back to August - and further developments are expected in this regard. However, the wheels in Brussels turn excruciatingly slowly - the investigation into the sale of the sport's commercial rights by the FIA to Ecclestone's family trust lasted three years - so no quick decisions loom.

That said, the mere threat of an EU investigation is likely to temper F1's politics for the foreseeable future, for neither governing body nor FOM - particularly the latter's venture fund parent CVC Capital Partners - are likely to emerge unscathed from scrutiny by Brussels, with Strategy Group members (to wit teams owned or controlled by multi-nationals) also in the line of fire.

Given that the EU is empowered to 'fine' transgressors up to 10 per cent of their respective annual turnovers - and the question in this regard is whether it would look only at the racing budgets of such as Ferrari, Red Bull and Mercedes were it to, for example, deem the Strategy Group monopolistic - while treating whistleblowers leniently, the question is which entity will fold first.

The way revenue is shared between teams will be a hot topic again © XPB

EU action in any form may arrive too late to save the three beleaguered teams: Lotus, Force India and Sauber, whose financial travails are well known. That they deserve due compensation for 2014 (at least) is inarguable, but, then, so do all disadvantaged teams on a list that includes Williams, Mercedes and McLaren - indeed any outfit not on the same financial terms as Ferrari and Red Bull.

Simply put, until all teams - and that implies no exceptions for Ferrari - receive equal reward for equal performance the EU has potential ammunition to use against the sport from the very top down. Will 2015 see Ecclestone and his masters admit the error of their ways and make amends?

Already Marussia is gone, Caterham is operating optimistically on (much repaired) wings and prayers and Lotus is listed as "unconfirmed" on FIA entry lists. These factors demonstrate the depth of F1's shifting sands, yet last year all and sundry stubbornly refused to extract their heads. In fact, they seemed to submerge them, so why would the passing of a season improve matters?

That makes redressing F1's financial imbalance the number two priority in 2015. No sport exists without teams, but where to find the additional funding, estimated to run to at least $200million per annum? Red Bull and Ferrari are unlikely to volunteer reductions in their takes - why should they? - while CVC needs every penny after loading the sport's commercial properties to the rooftops with debt.

Which brings us neatly to the priority: Formula 1's succession planning and who should succeed Ecclestone as CEO of this multi-billion sport that does not belong to CVC or the FIA, or even Ferrari and the teams, but to its legions of fans across the globe, all of whom are currently being extremely ill-served by F1's custodians.

Strong rumours abounded before Christmas that the 84-year-old was to be replaced by a corporate captain. Such matters came to naught, although sources are adamant that there were showdowns of sorts. However, to quote an extremely worried team boss: "It seems CVC is powerless to prevent Bernie taking Formula 1 with him when he goes."

Will F1's owners find a replacement for Ecclestone this year? © XPB

Said boss went one further: "It used to be said that no one person could ever replace Bernie, that his legacy would be that two or even three people would be required to do his job once he leaves for whatever reason, but I increasingly believe that his strategy is to ensure his legacy will be that only he could run the sport."

Formula 1's overriding objective for 2015 must be to sort its structures, from CVC boardroom politics through FOM's machinations and Strategy Group power to the FIA's regulatory impotence and EU intervention. Put bluntly, in 2015 the House that Bernie built will be under pressure like never before, but less obviously so.

The increasing irrelevance of Ferrari and overriding clout of Red Bull need to be redefined, for such top-heavy favouritism is patently unhealthy. Look no further than the engine unfreeze debacle they instigated.

While a solution to the 'token' homologation system was eventually found, that was due to downright tardiness on the part of all involved in the process, not foresight.

Collectively the political obstacles facing Formula 1 in 2015 seem insurmountable. Yet when a year ago the new engines failed to function, such was the sport's will to stage a successful race in Melbourne that seemingly dire situations were transformed within a month through step-by-step diligence.

Oh, that such strong will exists in F1's corridors, too; if not things will only get worse in the year ahead.