How did Verstappen's F1 debut go?

Max Verstappen only turned 17 three days ago and doesn't have a road driving licence.

But his assured performance on his first appearance on a grand prix weekend came as no surprise to those familiar with his exceptional performances in Formula 3.

Driving Jean-Eric Vergne's Toro Rosso during the first 90-minute session for the Japanese Grand Prix, Verstappen did a very good job before an engine failure brought his day to an end after just 22 laps.

Twelfth place overall was very respectable, but the deficit of just 0.443 seconds to team-mate Daniil Kvyat was testament to the quality of his performance.

His speed was nothing earth-shattering, it was never going to be, but he looked at home at this level, contrary to the panic-mongers who ludicrously suggested he would be an on-track hazard.

What was very obvious was that Verstappen, who later stressed that he wasn't close to the limit, was learning.

On his first run, when both drivers were on their 'bonus' set of hard-compound Pirellis usable only in the first half-hour, his best lap was 1.201s slower than Kvyat.

Both did eight laps on their first outings, an installation lap then a run, and Verstappen looked perfectly competent in comparison as he felt his way into both an unfamiliar car and circuit.

Verstappen looked very much at home © LAT

Not surprisingly, Verstappen was losing time to Kvyat in the tricky first sector. Given the challenge of the long esses section, this was perhaps to be expected.

But after losing 0.632s to Kvyat on his fastest lap, he was then faster through both the second (by 0.146s) and third (by 0.043s) sectors. Impressive.

Add into the mix that he later set faster times in sectors one and three, giving him a theoretical best just 0.307s slower than Kvyat's mark, and it was an excellent performance.

Doubly so when you take into account the fact that an inexperienced driver will usually be at their best when the tyres are over the hill.

GARY ANDERSON: "He looks pretty confident behind the wheel, but the most important thing is that he said he wasn't trying too hard and didn't make a big deal of his session.

"It's so easy for a driver to get over-excited in their first session and have a spin, then it's all over.

"But to not make any real mistakes, lap four tenths slower than Kvyat, is a good effort and he was confident enough in his ability to experiment and play with the car.

"If you look at his career, this is exactly what you would expect from Verstappen. But it's the usual deal, the next half-a-second might not be tricky to find and that's when it gets harder to squeeze the time out of it. That's the time you need to be at the very top level.

"The team will have been happy to get the car back in one piece, but even more happy to see that their driver has the ability.

"Red Bull as a company deserves a huge amount of credit for getting out there and trying to find the next great drivers.

"Other teams fall over themselves trying to sign guys like Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso, but Red Bull is getting out there and, with Toro Rosso, trying to find the next ones."

RAW PACE

It was no surprise to see Mercedes leading the way on the timesheets, but the advantage of the Silver Arrows was a shock.

Hamilton set the pace ahead of Nico Rosberg, but the best of the rest was Valtteri Bottas, a massive 1.201s slower.

GARY ANDERSON: "Mercedes certainly has a big advantage and it shows how strong the car is aero-wise.

Bottas was best of the rest, but the gap to Mercedes was huge © LAT

"Suzuka is the kind of circuit where there is a compromise between top speed and downforce, but because the car is so good both in terms of engine and aero it can afford to make that trade-off better than most.

"In Singapore, the gap was closed because everyone was at maximum downforce, which is effectively controlled by the regulations, particularly the rear wing size, so there wasn't any more to put in.

"The Mercedes is certainly efficient and that has helped it be well ahead.

"It was a surprise not to see Red Bull as the nearest challenger, though. The car is strong aero-wise and while there are some decent-length straights here, there are a lot of corners.

"It's still early days, so perhaps Daniel Ricciardo's crash played a part in Red Bull not being able to lead the challenge to Mercedes."

HAMILTON V ROSBERG

Not only was the Mercedes fast on single-lap pace, but it was also seriously quick on its long runs, both in terms of pace and degradation.

There's little to choose between the Mercedes © XPB

With the race likely to boil down to a scrap between the two title protagonists, Rosberg's pace on the medium-compound long-run looked potentially stronger than Hamilton's.

Analysing the pair's long run on the mediums, taking into account seven laps, Rosberg has the edge by an average of 0.248s.

Having said that, their pace early in the run is as good as identical, suggesting that it could be an incredibly close fight between the pair.

As the below graph shows, Hamilton would very probably have been able to sustain stronger pace at the end of the stints being compared even though he dropped off.

LONG-RUN PACE COMPARISON

With Mercedes so far ahead, the battle for best of the rest between Williams, Red Bull and Ferrari looks very close.

Based on long runs of eight counting laps, with anomalous slow laps removed, here's how things shake out among the leading teams.

Force India is disregarded as neither Sergio Perez nor Nico Hulkenberg completed sufficiently long runs.

This comparison does not reflect well on Ferrari, with Alonso's pace dropping off dramatically. But expect the Scuderia to be stronger on race pace come Sunday.

Average pace (eight laps)

1 Mercedes (Rosberg), 1m39.840s
2 Williams (Bottas), +0.816s
3 Red Bull (Vettel), +1.271s
4 McLaren (Button), +1.550s
5 Toro Rosso (Kvyat), +1.624s
6 Ferrari (Alonso), +2.260s

STRATEGY

With a pace difference of 0.8-1.0s from the hard to the medium, Pirelli anticipates that it will be either a two or three-stop race.