Hamilton not as safe as he looks

The Hungaroring is Lewis Hamilton's circuit. He's won there four times in seven attempts and, after outpacing Mercedes team-mate Nico Rosberg in both of Friday's practice sessions, surely only a car problem or bad luck can prevent him from going into the August break with another victory.

That's what the conventional wisdom says, but Friday practice painted a slightly different picture. Yes, Hamilton was the pacesetter over a single lap, more than two-tenths faster than Rosberg, but actually there is every sign that the German can give him a serious run for his money.

Hamilton remains favourite, and for good reason, but it's not a done deal.

RAW PACE

As usual, all 11 teams set their fastest times on the option rubber. With the soft- and the medium-compound Pirellis allocated this weekend, that means the former.

Mercedes had a bigger advantage in single-lap speed here than it did on Friday in Germany, with Red Bull unsurprisingly ending up as its nearest challenger but six-tenths off.

Ferrari also looks stronger, meaning that Williams has some work to do if it is to emerge as the best of the rest for the fourth consecutive weekend, something that seems unlikely given the configuration of the Hungaroring.

Rosberg was closer to Hamilton than the headline times suggested © LAT

Fastest laps by car
1 Mercedes 1m24.482s
2 Red Bull +0.629s
3 Ferrari +0.955
4 McLaren +1.098s
5 Williams +1.517s
6 Toro Rosso +2.207s
7 Force India +2.307s
8 Sauber +2.437s
9 Lotus +2.537s
10 Caterham +3.888s
11 Marussia +3.987s

ROSBERG'S STRONGER RACE PACE

After completing their performance runs on the soft-compound Pirellis, both Mercedes drivers then completed long runs on the same tyres.

Each did 11 counting laps (excluding one anomalous, very slow lap, from both) and the results show that Rosberg might have a trick up his sleeve for the race stints.

The German was actually very slightly quicker, albeit to the tune of just 41-thousandths of a second per lap. But what that does prove is that, in a race situation, it could be very close.

As we have seen several times before this season, assuming the two Mercedes drivers line up on the front row, whichever ends up behind (based on single-lap pace probably Rosberg) could end up opting for an alternative strategy.

That would mean using the slower medium-compound Pirellis earlier in the race, provided it was possible to do so without doing too long a stint on that compound or losing time in traffic.

BATTLE FOR BEST OF THE REST

While Red Bull was comfortably the second-fastest based on single-lap pace, the long runs suggest that it will be very close between the world champion team and Ferrari for best-of-the-rest status.

Sebastian Vettel's long run was, on average, about a tenth closer to Mercedes than the car's raw pace, but Fernando Alonso's was potentially faster.

However, the data is incomplete. While the rest of the laptime averages below are based on 11 laps, Alonso went out relatively late for his long run on soft tyres, completing just eight counting laps.

Using that average, the Ferrari is second fastest on race pace by eight-thousandths of a second, but it should be noted that Vettel was actually ahead of Alonso on eight-lap averages.

The bottom line is it will be close.

The other team to watch out for is Force India, which was unimpressive on single-lap pace, but Sergio Perez's soft-tyre run was, on average, fourth fastest ahead of both McLaren and Williams.

Alonso's 'long' run was shorter than his rivals managed in practice © LAT

Long-run pace
1 Mercedes, 1m28.758s
2 Ferrari, +0.515s*
3 Red Bull, +0.523s
4 Force India, +1.355s
5 McLaren, +1.471s
6 Williams, +1.600s
7 Toro Rosso, +2.031s
*Based on only eight-lap run, compared with 11 laps for the others

GARY ANDERSON:"As far as race pace is concerned, Hungary is very difficult because you need to look after the rear tyres. That is absolutely critical for performance.

"The long corners mean you are pushing the front of the car a lot, so you can't just set it up with understeer like the teams did in Germany to take the load out of the rears.

"Wear is a problem and whatever happens you will struggle at this track. If you spin the wheels too much, you don't get the grip and they overheat. But if you do have the grip, that is what causes the wear, particularly to the left-rear around here.

"You can end up blistering the harder tyre because it spins that little bit too much as well.

"We could see a lot of drivers struggling with various tyre problems during their long runs.

"It looks like it will be very close for second-best behind Mercedes between Red Bull and Ferrari. A lot will depend on whether Ferrari is able to continue to improve as Red Bull does, because sometimes it is relatively stronger on Friday than it is later in the weekend."

STRATEGY

As has often been the case this season, drivers will aim to stay on the soft-compound Pirellis for as much of the race as possible.

Friday practice, with the track temperature as high as 57C, showed that the soft is relatively durable and while Pirelli suggests that even a one-stopper might be possible, that would likely require too long a stint on the slower tyre to work.

So right now, it looks like two stops, minimising the time on the medium rubber, would be ideal, with three stops an alternative if necessary.

Boutsen held off faster cars to win the 1990 Hungarian Grand Prix © LAT

Interestingly, degradation is not the main limiting factor here. Instead, it is wear, with the left-rear the main concern.

While degradation refers to performance drop-off, wear refers to the physical wear of the tyre surface.

GARY ANDERSON:"Strategy is going to be absolutely vital here. It's very difficult to pass around the Hungaroring and, as Thierry Boutsen showed on his way to winning in 1990, you can be bog slow here and stay in front.

"To pass, you need either good strategy or luck. The key in the race is going to be pushing the first set of softs, which most should start on, right to the brink of where it drops off dramatically.

"The worst thing is to find yourself heading to the end of the race missing the last three or four laps of range, because that will cost you serious laptime and positions even on a track where it is tough to overtake."