The Hungaroring is Lewis Hamilton's circuit. He's won there four times in seven attempts and, after outpacing Mercedes team-mate Nico Rosberg in both of Friday's practice sessions, surely only a car problem or bad luck can prevent him from going into the August break with another victory.
That's what the conventional wisdom says, but Friday practice painted a slightly different picture. Yes, Hamilton was the pacesetter over a single lap, more than two-tenths faster than Rosberg, but actually there is every sign that the German can give him a serious run for his money.
Hamilton remains favourite, and for good reason, but it's not a done deal.