Time for the real Massa to stand up

Felipe Massa has a genuine shot at winning the Australian Grand Prix. How long has it been since it has been possible to say something like that heading into a Formula 1 weekend?

Save for the 2010 German Grand Prix, in which Sebastian Vettel's excessive swerve off the line to block Fernando Alonso allowed Massa to take a lead he only lost to Ferrari team orders, the Brazilian has not seriously contended for a win since the end of his superb 2008 season.

But, astonishingly, if pre-season testing is to be believed, he is back in the running for big results.

It's a remarkable turnaround. Massa would surely have stayed at Ferrari had he been offered a new deal for 2014. With his long-time employer opting to sign Kimi Raikkonen instead, Massa faced the scrapheap and Williams was his best realistic option for redemption. It was very much a marriage of mutual convenience for both team and driver.

Massa needed a team with the potential to make it worth his while going there. Williams needed a proven topliner and as the ninth best team of 2013, Massa was the closest approximation to one available to it.

Yet out of necessity has come great opportunity for both.

Massa has not seriously contended for wins since 2008 © XPB

Massa's experience, attitude and technical know-how were always going to be a given. Those factors alone made him of value to Williams.

What was less clear was whether Massa had the necessary speed and consistency to get the best out of a car he will play an integral part in developing.

The Massa of 2010-13 was a poor imitation of the one who came so close to winning the world championship.

He was sporadically quick, but erratic, and would have spells in races where he simply wasn't fast enough.

Take Monza last year. He outqualified and ran ahead of Fernando Alonso early on but after inevitably having to let his team-mate past into second place, lapped three-and-a-half tenths per lap slower than the Spaniard until his pitstop.

That cost him third place to Mark Webber. While Massa was fast again after the stop, his podium had been lost not to team orders but to a poor sequence of laps.

It was not an isolated case, but is a good example of a race where Massa missed out on a stronger result, which his pace for a proportion of the race would have merited.

These were not bad performances as such. Massa always remained a decent driver, but at this level tiny differences add up.

This made him a driver not able to deliver the performance level expected of one occupying a frontline seat. By contrast, while there were some mistakes along the way, he was majestic at times in 2008.

Pre-season testing has proved that the Williams FW36 is a genuinely good car.

It is not the first time Williams has looked a serious threat in the winter, but given that usually it has flattered to deceive, tipping Williams for a top result at the start of the season probably sounds as credible as the boy who cried wolf.

But the numbers don't lie.

Williams's pre-season test pace was real © LAT

The evidence? Massa set the fastest time of the final test in Bahrain.

It's safe to say that there were few cars capable of lapping as fast as the Williams in Bahrain. By definition, that makes it one of the quicker cars in the field.

More eye-catching though was its race pace.

Valtteri Bottas did probably the single most impressive race run during that final test.

Add to that a formidable reliability record, major steps forward made in terms of pitstop drilling and technology and the sheer amount of data and understanding it has built up in testing to date and you have a squad in great shape.

Then there is the feeling among other teams. The longer testing went on, the more Williams was talked of as a contender. While Mercedes remains the favourite for the Australian Grand Prix, all the indications are that Williams is next in line.

The question is, can Massa get the best out of his machinery?

The early races of this season will tell us that. Doubts, legitimate ones, remain over whether he is capable of the same level of performance he achieved in the 18 or so months prior to his terrible accident in qualifying for the Hungarian Grand Prix.

Speak to any specialists in head injuries and they will tell you that fully recovered, as Massa undoubtedly is, does not necessarily equate to exactly the same.

It's unfair, but it is possible the accident did blunt his edge.

The contrary hypothesis is that Massa's struggles were a result of his environment.

When alongside Kimi Raikkonen things were relatively straightforward and apolitical. When Alonso is around, things were not so easy.

Did partnering Alonso contribute to Massa's regression? © XPB

Having reached the heights of near-world champion status on the crest of an ever growing wave of confidence in 2007/8, did being Alonso's wingman have the reverse effect?

There is no doubt this effect is a real one. Having to relinquish that victory at Hockenheim (a year to the day after his accident) certainly hit Massa hard.

But it's difficult to reconcile that with four years of underachievement.

The environment certainly made life much harder, particularly for a confidence driver like Massa, and Alonso's excellence served only to amplify his struggles, but can the effect be so powerful as to explain a driver who once came within seconds of the title becoming so average?

If Williams is as strong as it appears, we will soon know once and for all.

Massa is happy, comfortable, relaxed and sees F1 as unfinished business. If he can get the best out of the car, and beat the formidable rising star Bottas, that would support the argument that it was predominantly environment, not injury, that blunted Massa.

On the balance of probability, it still seems likely that 2008 levels are beyond the current Massa. But it's not quite case closed, and what happens this weekend might bring some fresh evidence to the table.

If Massa is able to reach top form, finish on the podium or perhaps even win in Australia, it would be an amazing story for one of the most popular and likeable drivers in F1.

Even those who doubt whether he can still deliver at the level he once did would be delighted to be proved wrong.