Form guide: it's Red Bull vs tyre graining

Bringing the medium and soft combination to India was a bold move by Pirelli, effectively two steps softer than last year's choice. The evidence of Friday suggests that this has been enough to tip the option tyre into marginal territory - but marginal only becomes critical on the car with the most downforce, i.e. the Red Bull.

Both Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber struggled with huge wear of the front-right, with Vettel returning after three laps, Webber after four, each with that tyre in shreds. On the harder tyre, the RB9s were very fast, although even then there was a graining period to get through before the tyre stabilised.

Other teams, running cars with so much less downforce, were managing to make the softs last just fine, with a bit of careful management from the drivers. Ferrari's Fernando Alonso, for example, completed a 14-lap run on the option tyre at the end of which he was lapping very competitively. The graining period lasted for around five laps, during which time he was losing around 1.5s per lap, but thereafter he was consistently very quick.

Red Bull struggled to make the soft tyres last © XPB

Mercedes' Nico Rosberg did a decent nine-lap run on the option, though his average was around one second slower than Alonso's. Lotus appeared to be struggling to make the soft last - but not to the severe extent of Red Bull. Romain Grosjean was in after just four laps, Kimi Raikkonen after seven much slower laps.

On the harder medium tyre, Grosjean was Red Bull-fast, completing a long run with an average of 1m30.9s - near enough the same as Vettel's (admittedly slightly longer) run and quicker than Webber's. But Lotus does not have anything like Red Bull's single-lap pace - to the tune of around half-a-second.

Lotus, Mercedes and Ferrari look quite closely matched on one-lap pace. Ferrari was able to do a sensible-length stint on the option, more so than Mercedes or, especially, Lotus. But on the prime the Merc was lagging around 0.3s adrift of the Lotus. Ferrari's true pace on the prime was not clear; only Felipe Massa made a long run on them and suffered a long graining period. Once through that, it looked on a similar level to Mercedes.

All of which leaves the strategy game very interestingly poised. Two-stop strategies look to be favourite - but those qualifying in Q3 on the option tyre could be consigned to such a short opening stint that they fall into heavy traffic upon rejoining.

This would be easy if everyone was in the same boat, but some cars - notably the Ferraris - can apparently run a decently long stint on the options.

Alonso's long-run pace was decent © XPB

So if Red Bull wear on the option tyre remains high into Saturday, might it be tempted to qualify in Q3 on the prime tyre - around one second slower than the option - and accept a second/third row starting position?

Fitted with a long top gear and low wings, it could then surge through the field, come in for another set of primes and a final - very short - stint on the options. Lotus might just be fast enough to make that a difficult thing for Red Bull to pull off.

Red Bull's alternative would be to just accept the difficult traffic positioning after the first stop and then simply use its raw pace to claw back the time lost. This could be an interesting one.