The one certainty over F1's uncertain 2021 calendar

The uncertainty the world faces about how the coronavirus pandemic will shake out over the next few months is immense. And Formula 1 is certainly not immune from that.

Despite the world having so much more knowledge about the spread and treatment of the virus than it did this time last year, our return to normality still seems quite some way away as variants and vaccines become the latest talk.

The tricky situation at the Australian Open tennis tournament, with more than 70 players and officials confined to their hotel rooms for 14 days amid strict quarantine protocols following positive cases on flights arriving in Melbourne, shows just how precarious things are still right now. It was little wonder then that last week officials from the Australian city agreed to a postponement of this year's originally intended F1 season opener.

Ongoing lockdowns in Europe, plus heightened concerns about the increased infection rates being caused by variants, meant that spending millions to get Albert Park ready for a March race would have been folly. Having a repeat of last year's events, when everything was called off on Friday morning, would not have been welcome...

But the resultant shuffling around of the start of the season - with Bahrain now hosting both the season opener and pre-season testing, plus China losing its early slot - has inevitably thrown up some questions about the rest of the schedule and how realistic it is.

Over the weekend, there was a great deal of speculation about the fate of city races as some publications suggested that all of F1's street circuits would have to be dropped as a result of ongoing worries over coronavirus. That would effectively mean no Monaco, Baku, Singapore nor Australia.

But F1 was quick to dismiss any suggestion that the current plan's looking in major jeopardy, even though the schedule cannot be guaranteed as of now.

"We have set out the details of the revised 2021 calendar and there are no other changes," said an F1 spokesman. "The suggestion street races will not take place are completely wrong."

In fact, F1 has been keeping regular close tabs with race promoters as the situation has developed, and it is understood that as of last week all the current hosts were confident their races could take place. Such confidence may appear to fly in the face of the reality of a world that may still be pretty much locked down until March, and face tough restrictions for months beyond that, but there is one factor in F1's arsenal that means it can bat away the sceptics right now.

It's that it's been here before and done it in pulling off a full season in 2020.

Having a repeat of last year's events at Melbourne, when everything was called off on Friday morning, would not have been welcome...

From F1 falling flat on its face in Australia last year, when it was underprepared in a rapidly changing environment, the championship turned itself around in brilliant fashion to create a blueprint for how international sport could continue amid the pandemic. The COVID protocols laid down by F1 and the FIA worked brilliantly and, from the season opener in Austria to the finale in Abu Dhabi, they gave grand prix racing the foundation it needed to run a full campaign with no cancellations or further reshuffles.

Sure, there were some headaches along the way - especially with a potential outbreak cluster being caused by a Russian translator working for the teams in Sochi - but everything proved manageable. The procedures were at their strictest at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix when F1, working with local authorities, introduced a 'biosphere' that isolated the travelling circus from the world around it.

While such restrictions seemed supremely hardcore, the fact that the biosphere worked and allowed an event to go ahead in somewhere as stringent as Abu Dhabi, gives F1 the confidence that it can pull off races almost anywhere now.

Roll back to the early spring of last year, and many were sceptical that F1 would be able to get even a single race completed because of international travel restrictions. At one point, it seemed the only realistic hope of getting any racing done would be for Silverstone to host a full season of races at its venue - and maybe then only with the British teams. Now, though, the reality is that we will certainly be able to get a season done.

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F1 has already ticked off a bunch of the races that it's committed to - meaning there should be absolutely no doubt over the first four races of the season in Bahrain, Imola, Portimao (yet to be confirmed) and Barcelona. After that run, Monaco, Baku and Montreal may well prove to be more complicated affairs, because of their city nature, but F1's biosphere plan has shown it can work. All three can impose lockdown areas and tight restrictions to ensure F1 did not mingle with the local community if they choose to go down the biosphere route.

Following those three, the run from the French GP on 27 June to the Russian GP on 26 September should all be pretty much guaranteed based on the success of the European events and Sochi last year. Then, though, comes a more challenging time with the flyaways - and this is perhaps where things will likely change. But exactly what will have to move may not be known until much nearer the time.

The run of triple headers at this stage of the season has been criticised by some for simply putting too much on to F1's working personnel, who had become jaded by three back-to-back races when they first happened in 2018. But, if F1 wants to build in some flexibility and not stretch the calendar too much, then having some freedom to drop events and not leave gaping holes in the schedule is a sensible step to make. It's better to have races planned and then some scope to shuffle or postpone them, than to have nothing there and try to rush something on board at the last minute...

Plus, if the COVID vaccine rollout has worked and the world has opened up a bit by the autumn, then few will complain about F1 being able to get as many 'normal' races done as possible. And even if some of the late season flyaways in more complicated places, like Japan, Singapore, Brazil or Mexico do have to be postponed for another year, then it will be a temporary bump in the road for F1 rather than a disaster.

Looking at the calendar, there are easily enough races that can be guaranteed to take place (barring some unforeseen twist in the development of coronavirus) for a full season to be declared.

And for F1 fans and teams, who early last summer were staring into the abyss of a race-less season, that certainly is a huge relief as we head into more uncertain times...