How the BTCC title contenders rate their chances

Well, we made it. During the painful year of 2020, the coronavirus pandemic saw to it that the British Touring Car Championship season couldn't kick off until August, and at no point have crowds been admitted to circuits due to the series' status as Elite Sport. But, with eight rounds down, that status has saved the day regarding the season finale. Elite Sport events are exempt under the November lockdown, and that means five drivers can fight it out this weekend on the Brands Hatch Indy Circuit.

Four-time champion Colin Turkington leads the way in his West Surrey Racing-run BMW 330i M Sport, but Ash Sutton is just nine points adrift in this, his first campaign with the Laser Tools Racing Infiniti Q50, run by his old pals at the BMR Engineering concern.

This rear-wheel-drive pair are challenged by front-wheel-drive opposition in the forms of Dan Cammish (Team Dynamics-run Honda Civic Type R), Tom Ingram (Speedworks Motorsport Toyota Corolla) and Rory Butcher (Motorbase Performance Ford Focus). Cammish is 25 points behind Turkington, Ingram is 34 off the summit, and Butcher only has the slenderest of mathematical chances - he's 63 off the top with 67 available.

Don't forget, Turkington goes into the weekend with the maximum 60kg of success ballast aboard his BMW, with Sutton on 54kg, Cammish on 48kg, Ingram on 42kg and Butcher on 36kg. This will be changed for race two depending on the result of the opener, and again for the reversed-grid race three based on the result of the second counter.

So if, say, Sutton is 15 points (with 20 for a win) behind Turkington going into the final race, but is starting up at the front with a relatively unballasted Infiniti, and Turkington is carrying weight from the wrong end of the top 10, then there's still everything to play for. It's not to be missed on ITV4. But first, what do the five men in the hunt have to say about it?

How do you rate your chances of the championship?

Colin Turkington: My chances are, I would say, as good as anybody's. I don't believe the odds are stacked in anyone's favour. I go in with a slender advantage, but I hope my chances are strong because I feel massively motivated to try and win again, and just as hungry as ever before. Whether that's enough to clinch the crown I don't know, but I go with good confidence.

Ash Sutton: Obviously I rate them quite highly. I'm the closest one to taking it off Colin out of all of us. We've seen over the past few meetings how quickly it can change and you never know what's round the corner in British Touring Cars. But I'm in a very good position. I'm in my comfortable position where we're always hunting rather than being the prey, shall we say. So yeah, I think we've got a very good chance.

"My goal is to finish the season on a high and bag some good results for the team to go into the winter. With a good weekend I can definitely challenge for fourth or even third overall" Rory Butcher

Dan Cammish: Good question. To be honest I feel like I'm in the hands of others. I think we've got a sensible chance, but I need a bit of luck. I really need Colin and Ash to have a non-score in at least one race. A non-score from those two in one race, and I've got a good chance. Without it, I think we're just a little bit too far away.

Tom Ingram: Outsider, I think is the easiest way to say it. But with being an outsider, it actually puts a lot less pressure on us for the weekend, because we need everyone else to mess up. We just have to focus on doing the best job we can, and if it's to be it's to be, and if it's not it's not. We can only control our own destiny. We'll just focus on that.

Rory Butcher: I'm not out there to win this championship - the gap in points has become too big after a tough Croft and Silverstone. It's a fight that's most likely going to come down to Ash Sutton and Colin Turkington. My goal is to finish the season on a high and bag some good results for the team to go into the winter. With a good weekend I can definitely challenge for fourth or even third overall.

Which weekend has been most important to boosting you into a good championship position?

CT: That's an easy one - definitely Snetterton [pole, two wins and a third]. That was critical for me a) to make sure I went into the Brands Hatch final still in with a good shout, and b) just rebounding after a tough weekend at Croft. It's not easy lifting yourself again, and with any sport confidence plays a big part. It was massively important. To come back in such style with a 60-point weekend was a nice signal of intent that I haven't gone away, and that I'm back and we're hungry to win.

AS: Knockhill was a solid weekend in terms of race one and two - we came away with perfect points from those. But I think ultimately the most important one was probably Silverstone, where we had to have that comeback in race three. After the puncture in race two, to come back in race three was the make-or-break to staying in the hunt to some extent. I did a fair amount of overtaking in that one, that's for sure!

DC: I think Silverstone [a win, a second and a fourth] probably. The last two years I've been to Silverstone and to be honest I've struggled a little bit. I've just never felt it's been my best track, even comparative to Matt [Neal, team-mate]. Matt's usually quicker than me there. This year I went there determined to learn and do the best job I could. I really didn't expect to put it on pole and have such a strong weekend, with I think my highest ever points tally.

TI: Ooh that's a difficult one. It was probably Silverstone that had the opportunity to be, but being realistic it was Thruxton, with some mega results. That was particularly good, with two wins. That was when we felt the momentum really started.

RB: Hard to say. Potentially it might have been some of the weekends in the middle of the year. We've got a new car in the Ford Focus ST which really hit the ground running, but we hadn't been to every single circuit yet, and there were three or four circuits in a row where we arrived and we weren't quite in the window in FP1. As a team we just worked our way through and were competitive at the end, allowing me to score big points. At the same time you've got to look at the weekends where I bagged multiple podiums, like Oulton Park and Donington at the start of the year. Those definitely gave me a foundation of points.

And which weekend do you look at as 'the one that got away'?

CT: Again easy - Croft. I do believe some things happen for a reason, and I left Croft disappointed that I hadn't got more out of the weekend, but sometimes you have to learn a lesson. It's never nice going through that experience, but I think that the mistake I made at the beginning of race two is hopefully something I won't repeat for a while. It's better that something happens like that three weekends from the end and not on the final race weekend.

"I always remember when I was team-mates with Anthony Reid back in the MG days, and he said "attack is the best form of defence". So I think you have to have that mentality of going forward, no matter where you are" Colin Turkington

AS: Croft. Yeah, Croft... An error from myself in race two [when a collision with Jake Hill caused a puncture]. Colin was out of the race, and we could be chatting about a very different picture right now if I'd maybe managed the situation slightly better. So yeah, I've lived and learned from that one.

DC: No doubt Brands GP. I was on for a podium in race two when the power-steering fuse came out, and then in race three the engine expired when I probably would have wound up sixth or seventh at worst. For me that was a real missed opportunity, because we were very quick and we really could have done without that.

TI: Silverstone. Unfortunately motorsport can be such a cruel mistress at times - it gives with one hand, and it snatches away with the other.

RB: There's a couple of weekends. At Brands Hatch, I had two punctures - I was leading one race and in the other I was in third. So that definitely dented my season. And you then look at Silverstone, getting turned around on lap one of race two, and then obviously having the spectacular shunt in race three, and at Croft again getting turned around in race two. And I need to acknowledge and learn from the mistakes I've made which have hurt my chances.

What's your approach to the final weekend of the season?

CT: These are things I consider a lot - what's the best way to approach it? And in the end I always remember when I was team-mates with Anthony Reid back in the MG days, and he said "attack is the best form of defence". So I think you have to have that mentality of going forward, no matter where you are. I'm leading the points but it's not a buffer I can rely on. It's not possible just to drive round and consolidate and score points; you have to be going forwards otherwise you're going backwards.

AS: Full attack, if I'm honest. Obviously I'm gunning for my second title, and I've got some great competition. It's not going to be easy, that's for sure. But I'm full guns blazing, we've got nothing to lose, and there's only one winner at the end of the day.

DC: I can't really change my approach. Really I've got nothing to lose now. There's no prizes for second place. Of course I'd like to be on the [championship] podium at the end of the year, but even then is there a podium as such? People only remember the winner! It's a matter of I'll give my absolute best. All I can do is qualify well and then race my heart out from there.

TI: No different to any other weekend to be honest. We're in the passenger seat with it really. I'll just do my normal race weekend, which is go and attack and give it our all. It's not like I can think about being conservative, or thinking if there's a third I'll bank a third. Given the points scenario, I have to be thinking of first, not third, which at this stage of the year you don't really want to be doing of course. We've done a lot of testing around that track. I love the circuit and so do Motorbase. Realistically I can still fight for third or fourth, but I'm just approaching it as I usually do, trying to maximise and attack every session.

Who or what are you most worried about?

CT: Probably the weather, purely because it can have such a big influence on the outcome. I would prefer stable conditions, whether that be wet or dry, and not somewhere in the middle. And maybe Dick Bennetts [WSR boss] if I don't win! [Not Matt Neal?] He does tend to be a factor in any of the season finals with me! Who knows?

"My biggest worry is that we're genuinely not quick enough. I'm not worried about other drivers or anything like that" Dan Cammish

AS: Qualifying has always been our trickiest point. We can never match the pace of, shall we say, the manufacturers. We're always there or thereabouts, but it's just that's going to be the most important part of the whole weekend in my opinion. Free practice is an hour long, so you're not losing out too much on time, you just don't get as much time to potentially make a big set-up change. All of that plays a big part into having a good qualifying - and that's going to be the key.

DC: My biggest worry is that we're genuinely not quick enough. I'm not worried about other drivers or anything like that. My worry is that we just won't have the out and out performance that we need. A bit like Snetterton, where we were just a distant fifth or sixth on the day.

TI: Weather conditions I think. Given we're going to Brands Hatch Indy, which is not renowned as a high-grip surface, when it's going to be minus 20 with thick snow on the ground, I think it's going to be quite a weekend!

RB: Probably the bloody weather! Mid-November at Brands Hatch, you just don't know what the hell's going to happen.

How does Brands Hatch Indy Circuit suit you and your car?

CT: It's always been a good circuit for West Surrey, for the BMWs. But the BTCC final is a completely separate event from any other race. It almost doesn't matter which track we're on because the event is a law unto itself. It's such a strange and difficult day on so many levels. It just happens to be the bit of Tarmac where the season final will be played out. I'm not sure whether it even favours front-wheel drive or rear-wheel drive.

I'm looking forward to it because the target you set yourself at the beginning of the season is to get to the final with a chance, and it's just a privilege to be involved. In normal years when you have 40,000 people there it's just such a magical day, and you feel that the eyes of the world are on you and the championship, and that could well be the case this weekend, because the country is in lockdown and a lot of people will be interested to see what happens.

It's great that we've been able to continue on and complete the season and give the fans a showdown. I think everybody wants to see it. So just try and enjoy the occasion, that's important for me as well, because you don't always get these opportunities. It's important to try and remember to smile and enjoy it for what it is.

AS: All we can really do is look at sector one from the Brands GP circuit. We were fairly strong in that sector, so we've only got to hook up the other half of the track and we should hopefully be there or thereabouts. But we've never taken the car around there, it's the smallest circuit on the calendar, it's tight and twisty. Some say Knockhill is very similar, but Knockhill has got a lot of undulation changes, so the car set-up is very different [soft, which suits the Infiniti]. So it's an unknown quantity for us.

DC: In two years at Brands Indy we've basically had very average days, usually dictated by the weather and just getting the wrong side of it, wrong decisions. Having said that, I should have had a pole position there on my debut, but I missed the bloody red light [for the weighbridge]. The car can work well, I can get it round. It's a matter of doing the best job we can with the weight.

TI: Historically it's been a good circuit for is. It's the circuit I got my first pole and my first win at, so it holds quite good memories for us. Last year we weren't particularly strong but we were at the start of the new car so it was hard to tell. Also, when we go to Brands Indy we usually have no weight, and for the first time I can remember we're all going to be having qualifying there with weight on, and seeing who's going to be where. I enjoy the circuit. I like the challenge of the shorter circuits because you've got to get everything absolutely right.

RB: I think it's going to be good to the car. We've done quite a chunk of testing there, our base set-up has all come from Brands Hatch. I think we'll be in a good position, and with only one FP session it's important that we do arrive there with a car that hits the ground running.

How will wet or cold weather affect your chances?

CT: You know, when you reflect back to Snetterton, I think front and rear-wheel drive, we all found it difficult to get tyre temperatures. I think all cars are in the same boat on that one. We're trying to get heat in the fronts, and front-wheel drive are trying to get it in the rears. We both have our challenges.

AS: If it's wet we seem to thrive, if it's damp and we're on slicks it's not an ideal situation for any rear-wheel-drive car, and then in the dry I think it's going to favour a front-wheel-drive car full stop. But I think we should be in the mix - it's just having the ballast that we've got on board [that will have a bigger effect].

"When we go to Brands I think we'll all be a little bit more dialled in to the colder conditions, and come wet or dry I think we've got a very strong car" Tom Ingram

DC: In the full wet I don't think there's much in the front and rear-wheel-drive battle, but in the greasy conditions it's really advantage front-wheel drive. The cold temperatures, certainly the front-wheel drive might have an advantage because we can bring the tyres up to temperature a bit quicker. It's going to be nip and tuck, isn't it?

TI: It shouldn't be as much of a surprise to us as it was at Snetterton. However, when we go to Brands I think we'll all be a little bit more dialled in to the colder conditions, and come wet or dry I think we've got a very strong car. We're also a little bit lighter [less ballast] than those around us in the championship hunt, so it feels like we're in the best place from a performance point of view.

RB: I'm not too concerned either way. I think the car will be good in the dry, and in the wet it's good around there. With the weather, the worst part is really the decision-making if it's changeable, when it's that toss-up - nobody likes that.

Who do you think will win the championship?

CT: I think the only way I can answer is that I expect the champion to be one of the five contenders! I can't be arrogant and say I expect myself to win; I'm going to Brands believing that I can win. I think that for me is an important step: to believe that you can do it, otherwise the job will be even harder.

AS: I'd like to say myself! I'm not going to be choosing anyone else - I don't want anyone else to win it! Expectations are just something we can't really rely on in this championship in my opinion.

DC: Er, that's a tough one. I think it'll either by Ash or myself! Looking at Colin's past history, he tends to have quite a tough last day, but usually he's got a buffer that he's far enough in front that even if he has a bit of an off day he still wins. This year he doesn't have much of a buffer at all, at least to Ash, and Ash'll come out swinging. He's going to be absolutely so fired up for it, and we haven't really seen those two race each other properly this year. I think we might be about to though, and that might just play into my hands.

TI: Ooh, I wouldn't put it past Colin to be honest - he's been there 19 times already! He knows the script, he knows the score. I wouldn't put it past Ash to try his absolute utmost of course, but will Colin drop the ball? Er, he has done a couple of times over the past couple of years, but I don't think he'll do it this year.

RB: It could go so many different ways. The way I see it is Ash is going to be very much on the attack. Potentially Turkington and the BMW have a slightly better performance in qualifying, and will give themselves a good chance, but Ash will be strong come race day, so it will come down to the wire. I honestly can't put my money on it.