Why the LMP1 title destination is not a foregone conclusion

Fernando Alonso, in all likelihood, is going to become a three-time world champion at the Le Mans 24 Hours this weekend. He's a shoo-in for the World Endurance Championship title together with Sebastien Buemi and Kazuki Nakajima.

They sit 31 points ahead of their Toyota team-mates Kamui Kobayashi, Mike Conway and Jose Maria Lopez, with just 39 to play for at the 2018/19 WEC superseason finale. So you wouldn't get very long odds on Alonso and co becoming champions.

But what about the battle for the big race this weekend, an arguably altogether bigger prize? A bookmaker would have to make the championship leaders in the #8 Toyota TS050 HYBRID the pre-race favourites based on form.

Alonso, Buemi and Nakajima are the ones in possession of that going into Le Mans. Not only do they comfortably lead the championship, but they are unbeaten this year and lead their team-mates 4-2 on victories over the course of the superseason.

Alonso has pointed out that the title race could have been done and dusted by now. That's if both the Toyota TS050 HYBRIDs hadn't been disqualified at Silverstone and #8 hadn't lost out big-time during what can only be described as a bizarre safety car scenario at Shanghai in November.

The Spaniard and his team-mates would have won in China had the sister car not stopped for fuel and tyres when the safety car was being led through the pitlane after a car had parted company with its engine oil on the start-finish straight. There is no doubting that, because Alonso had to stop when the safety car was taking a more conventional route.

The loss of time for #8 was massive. A lead of just over 20 seconds before the safety car turned into a deficit of a similar amount when the race went green.

That meant Kobayashi and co were effectively handed 14 points in the championship battle. The #8 car is 31 points up going into Le Mans, and there are just 39 up for grabs. You do the maths.

Shanghai, to my mind, was the only race of the superseason so far where one of the Toyotas truly had an upper hand over the other car. So it really was a case of bad luck for Alonso, Buemi and Nakajima. But what about the misfortune suffered by the #7 car during this campaign?

Winning Le Mans in 2018 ultimately allowed Alonso to move two thirds of the way to emulating Graham Hill's so far unique triple crown

The majority of the WEC rounds so far could have gone either way. The battle between the two TS050s really has been that tight.

Take the championship opener at Spa back in May 2018 at the start of the one-off superseason. Alonso, Buemi and Nakajima won, but Kobayashi, Conway and Lopez had the faster car. That was the case in qualifying and through the six hours of the race. Their problem was that Conway started more than a lap down on Buemi.

Conway and Lopez claimed the pole, only to lose their times for what was essentially a clerical error by the Toyota Gazoo Racing squad. The code on the mandatory fuel meter wasn't the one that had been declared, so the times were scratched and the car had to start from the pitlane after the entire field had completed the opening lap.

Toyota has never provided a detailed explanation of how the infringement occurred, but the suspicion has to be that the fuel flow meters of the two cars were somehow mixed up. So that means the unit in the #8 car may also have not been as declared. It just wasn't checked in the scrutineering bay, and had it been there may have been two Toyotas starting from the pitlane.

The #7 car got lucky with the safety car to claim back the lost lap by half distance and again to make up more time later in the race, but it was the faster car, especially in the closing stages. The #8 Toyota had sustained damage to its underfloor and had lost its edge, which explains why Kobayashi was closing on Alonso during the penultimate stint. As per Toyota's normal rules of engagement, the positions were frozen at the final pitstop.

Le Mans might have been different, too. Alonso began the fightback, after Buemi incurred a stop-go penalty for failing to get down to the 80km/h speed limit quickly enough at the start of a slow zone. That eventual win ultimately allowed him to move two thirds of the way to emulating Graham Hill's so far unique triple crown. The two Toyotas were evenly matched in the hours of daylight on Saturday and again on Sunday, but in the cooler temperatures under the cover of night #8 had the advantage.

A failure of a sensor meant that Conway was unable to dial out some understeer right from the beginning of the race. The drivers were able to overcome the push in the hotter temperatures, but not when they dropped as darkness fell over the Circuit de la Sarthe. As is so often the case at Le Mans, the race was won and lost during the night and early hours of the morning.

The race at Silverstone is another one that could also have gone the other way. Lopez had moved ahead of Nakajima in the fourth hour before the damage to the underfloor that ultimately resulted in the car's exclusion started to affect the pace of the #7 car. The two Toyotas were similarly afflicted, though which encountered the problem first and which was hit the hardest isn't entirely clear.

Kobayashi, Conway and Lopez won on merit at Fuji in October and then got lucky to make it two in a row at Shanghai the following month.

The Sebring 1000 Miles eight-hour race was won by the #8 car, but again it was close before Lopez made a mistake in traffic that resulted in the loss of two laps to repairs. The Argentinian was edging towards Buemi in the fifth hour when he tagged a slower car.

The events of Spa last month as good as handed the championship to the drivers of #8, but it was another race that could have been won by Kobayashi, Conway and Lopez. Or rather it should have been won by them.

They had the faster car in a race periodically interrupted by snow flurries and were 40s up the road when an issue with a sensor in the hybrid system cost them four laps in the pits.

Alonso admits that the championship battle has been "very close, very intense". But he also reckons he and his team-mates have had the edge on racedays: "I think on Sundays we normally had a little bit more pace for whatever reason; maybe on Saturdays we had a little bit less pace for whatever reason."

I'm not so sure. And that's why I reckon if you can find some decent odds on the #7 Toyota as the race approaches, it might be worth a flutter. The two Toyotas are even favourites to my mind.