Why the 2025 Le Mans battle remains wide open

Who’s going to win the Le Mans 24 Hours? It’s a question I get asked a lot - before I travel to France and while I’m here on the ground. I get it from colleagues, friends and, on one occasion, a stranger on the street in west London. People want an answer, a definitive one I sometimes feel. But I have to tell them that this is Le Mans we’re talking about. There’s a natural tendency to sit on the fence ingrained in my psyche.

So what am I saying this time around? Not a lot. A shrug of the shoulders suffices for my pre-event predictions this year. It remains wide open, even after a day of running on the Test Day last weekend and then two days of practice and qualifying.

We can probably scratch two of the eight manufacturers in Hypercar from the list of potential winners. They’re Aston Martin and Peugeot. The British manufacturer is new to the category, of course. And just because it made it through the first round of qualifying on Wednesday, after the disqualification of the Porsche that had taken fourth position, that doesn’t mean it is going to be a contender in the race.

That said, the Aston generally races better than it qualifies and there’s no doubt that the Valkyrie Le Mans Hypercar is on an upward trajectory. But it’s surely too much to ask for it to run at the sharp end at the weekend. That was my thought even before track action on the Circuit de la Sarthe began with the Test Day, but now I think we know for sure that there is going to be no repeat of the British manufacturer’s 1959 victory at the French enduro with the DBR1.

We can now draw a line through Peugeot on the basis of what we’ve seen on the circuit. Some were ready to do that prior to last Sunday, given the record of the French manufacturer since it joined the WEC nearly three years ago. Those that did weren’t watching what happened last time out in the series at Spa in May. The 9X8 2024 LMH would have had a shot at a podium but for a miscommunication that left the best of its entries out on track during a caution period.

What’s changed since then is something about which Peugeot cannot speak, but I can write with abandon. And will continue to do so, no matter who tells me I can’t. The Balance of Performance, which it should be said stands separate for Le Mans to the rest of the WEC, certainly isn’t in Peugeot’s favour. The 9X8 is heavier and has less power than so far in the WEC. Put simply it doesn’t have a fighting chance here at Le Mans.

Aside from Peugeot and newcomer Aston Martin, every Hypercar brand appears to have a chance of fighting for the win

Photo by: Andreas Beil

But everyone else, the other six manufacturers in Hypercar, all have a chance by my reckoning. Ferrari is still favourite no matter what happened in qualifying; it has to be after wins on the Circuit de la Sarthe in each of the past two years and a clean sweep of victories so far this year in WEC with its pair of factory 499P LMHs.

Toyota, too, didn’t have a great qualifying, but it should be pointed out nor did it last year. Best of the Japanese cars was 11th last year, compared with eighth this time round. And who was battling with Ferrari come the end of the race? It was Toyota, which rang every ounce of performance from its GR010 HYBRID LMH.

Porsche and Penske, so desperate to win this race after taking drivers’ honours in WEC and almost everything on offer in the IMSA SportsCar Championship last year, is most definitely in the mix. With a bit more straightline speed, the 963 LMDh appears to have become a more raceable machine, something it wasn’t in the crunch stages last year.

I don’t care how many cars finish on the same lap. What is important is the battle at the front. Right at the front.

Cadillac’s V-Series.R LMDh is always strong around the Circuit de la Sarthe: we already knew that before the two Jota entries blocked out the front row after Hyperpole qualifying. BMW and Alpine have shown the kind of form in the early rounds of the WEC that must make them contenders with their respective M Hybrid V8 and A424 LMDhs. From what we know right now, it looks like they sit behind the marques mentioned above in the pecking order, but they’ve got to be regarded as there or thereabouts.

That makes the prospects for the 93rd running of the Le Mans 24 Hours mouth-watering. Last year nine cars from four manufacturers finished on the lead lap. It was a record: never had more than two completed the same number of laps come the chequered flag.

Could we have a repeat? Quite possibly. But I’m not sure it really matters. As excited as some were about the nine cars on the lead lap 12 months ago, the reality was that there were only two manufacturers in the fight at the finish. It was Ferrari versus Toyota again. And as the race drew to its conclusion, it was one car from each camp battling it out.

Toyota was slightly disappointing in qualifying, but always races well at Le Mans

Photo by: Alexander Trienitz

The old adage that you only need two cars to make a motor race was reinforced in my eyes by the events in the final hour of the race. Once the second cars from Ferrari and Toyota had dropped out of contention, it really was a two-horse race. The other seven cars on the lead lap were little more than bit players.

I don’t care how many cars finish on the same lap. What is important is the battle at the front. Right at the front.

Think back to 2011 and one of the greatest editions ever. No one was looking behind the Peugeot chasing down the Audi that ultimately prevailed by just under 14s, proclaiming it wasn’t much of a motor race because there weren’t another five or more cars on the lead lap. Everyone was focusing on the final stages of a battle that had raged for the whole race between two racing cars that did their thing in different ways.

I have little doubt that we will get another close battle, but will it be so exciting as back in 2011? Possibly, but definitely not as intriguing. The BoP and the safety car rules introduced in 2023 are designed to close the field up and promote close racing by what an old school racer like me regards as artificial means. They represent what long-time Toyota Gazoo Racing Europe technical director Pascal Vasselon once described as the ‘Americanisation’ of endurance racing. No one can whine too much about it, however, not with eight manufacturers on the grid in Hypercar and at least another three on the way.

So I won’t be complaining if I have to put off finally answering that question about who is going to win the 93rd edition of the Le Mans 24 Hours until deep into the race. How about after the final round of pitstops in hour 24?

Lynn nailed pole for the Jota Cadillac team, but all bets are off for the race - at least until the final round of stops...

Photo by: Alexander Trienitz