How GTE is nearing the end of its road

Even before last week's news that Porsche would be ending its factory GT Le Mans programme in the IMSA SportsCar Championship at the end of the year, it looked as if the GTE platform in general was on a firm decline.

Yes, last year Porsche brought in the new RSR-19 for use in both IMSA and the World Endurance Championship, and Corvette rolled out the all-new C8.R to replace the ageing C7.R at the start of this year. But the obvious fact remains that there were no new manufacturers queuing up to join a class that, on both sides of the Atlantic, was realistically down to the minimum number of factory entrants needed to keep it viable.

In IMSA, Porsche's forthcoming exit will leave only Corvette and BMW as full factory entrants in GTLM. And while Corvette can be assumed to be in it for the long haul having only just brought out a new car, BMW is only committed until the end of this year with its pair of Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing-run M8 GTEs. Last year, the Bavarian marque decided to end its WEC involvement after just one (admittedly longer-than-usual) season. It's not hard to imagine a similar choice being made again this year in IMSA, especially given Porsche's exit.

That would leave Corvette on its own, as it was in the American Le Mans Series' GT1 class for much of 2007 and 2008 before it stepped down to the GT2 ranks in mid-2009. So, could history be about to repeat itself, with GTE playing the role of the embattled GT1 division?

"Personally, I fear the worst," says factory Porsche driver Laurens Vanthoor. "We'll have to see what's going to happen in the coming weeks and months. But in IMSA it will just be BMW and Corvette [left], and BMW already quit WEC. That's four cars. It's hard to say, but I fear it could be the end [of GTLM]. I hope not, but it wouldn't surprise me."

Corvette driver Nicky Catsburg, who was also a part of the axed BMW WEC programme, adds: "I have no idea what Corvette and GM will do. If it's only BMW and Corvette and it's only four cars, I don't know what their response will be. I know a few years ago Corvette actually raced on its own [in GT1, above], which is a bit of a strange situation. I don't see a new potential car coming in. I just hope the class isn't going to stop."

Over in the WEC, the loss of Ford and BMW at the end of the 2018-19 superseason has left just Porsche, Ferrari and Aston Martin. While the chances of any of these programmes being terminated imminently appears low, some question marks remain.

For starters, Porsche has made no secret about its interest in the new LMDh regulations that will allow manufacturers to contest outright victories in IMSA and the WEC (and crucially, in the Le Mans 24 Hours) with the same car, for budgets not too much more than those currently being ploughed into GTE. If it goes ahead, suddenly the need for a factory presence in the GT ranks of the WEC becomes much less pressing.

GTE Am features a bumper 11 cars, and there are another half-a-dozen or so in the European Le Mans Series. Simply declaring GTE dead is unlikely to go down well with the wealthy amateurs that fund a class that makes up more than a third of the WEC grid

For Vanthoor, the impending arrival of LMDh is a key reason for support of GTE drying up.

"I don't immediately see anyone jumping in GTLM, mainly because LMDh is coming in," says the Belgian. "If you look at what LMDh can achieve [budgets-wise], it should be similar or even cheaper than GTLM and you're also competing for the overall win. I think everyone involved understands the level at which people are performing in GTLM. It's not any lower than DPi, but still you're not racing for an overall victory. Winning your class is not the same."

Ferrari, meanwhile, continues to campaign a model in the GTE class that is no longer on sale: the 488, which has been replaced by the F8 Tributo. The Italian manufacturer said last year it has no plans to create a race version of the new model, citing its technical similarity to its predecessor beneath the revised styling. And while the 488 - first introduced way back in 2016 - is still competitive, thanks in part to the 2018 Evo kit, there must come a time where racing an old model is no longer sustainable from a marketing standpoint.

"Technically now the [488] is at a fairly advanced level," says factory Ferrari man Miguel Molina. "Perhaps the two newest cars [in WEC], the Porsche and the Aston Martin, inside they are quite close to a prototype, although on the outside they look like a road car. The Ferrari is a beautiful car to drive and increasingly advanced in terms of electronics and mechanics. Although it's an older car than that of others, we are still there to fight."

There have also been suggestions that Ferrari wants in on LMDh, but only if an exemption can somehow be found that would bypass the need for the Scuderia to build a car based on one of the four designated base LMP2 chassis, which could pose an obstacle.

Then there's Aston Martin, whose five-year commitment to the GTE division started in 2017. That means it's committed to the class until the end of 2021 - by which time its takeover of the Racing Point Formula 1 team will be in full flow. Whether its new ownership will be willing to keep the factory Vantage programme going beyond then is anyone's guess.

With LMDh scheduled to come on stream in 2022, and the current GTE homologation cycle ending in 2021 (manufacturers are only permitted one update per cycle), the end of next season begins to look like a logical end point for GTE, at least as a manufacturer-based class. But winding down GTE altogether would bring its own set of challenges.

For IMSA, the GT Daytona division for GT3 cars would stand ready to pick up the slack. Indeed, the class already features a couple of pseudo-factory teams - think AIM Vasser Sullivan Racing/Lexus and Meyer Shank Racing/Acura - so it would be a worthy successor to GTLM, especially if Corvette could be convinced to convert the C8.R into GT3 spec.

In Europe, though, things are not so simple. The WEC's GTE Am division currently features a bumper 11 cars, and there are another half-a-dozen or so in the European Le Mans Series. Simply declaring GTE dead and buried is unlikely to go down well with the constituency of wealthy amateurs that fund a class that makes up more than a third of the WEC grid.

Convergence between GTE and GT3 has been talked about for many years but has never come about, but if it's going to happen there's unlikely to be a better opportunity than the current one posed by the COVID-19-induced economic crisis. That could be a way of allowing those teams already with GTE cars to carry on racing them, potentially against uprated GT3 cars entered by factory, or at least factory-supported, teams.

Catsburg (above) says: "If GTE does end, maybe it brings further possibilities to have a global platform for GTs, where maybe you can race a GT3 or a 'GT3 Plus' at Le Mans and also in IMSA. That could be good. In IMSA you could have maybe 'GTD Plus' without ABS, without traction control and without some of the restrictions [on driver classification]. It would be low-cost compared to GTE and you'd have a global platform. Maybe it's a solution.

"They [GTE and GT3] are really not that different. Tyres are a big thing. All the GT3 classes somehow like to drive on low-performance tyres, so if you put some nice [GTE-spec] Michelins on a GT3 car you will immediately find some time."

Not everyone is quite so convinced, though. Vanthoor points to the sheer complexity of GTLM machinery in comparison to their outwardly-similar looking GT3 cousins.

"I remember seeing that photo from the first lap of Le Mans last year, you have Nicki Thiim leading in the Aston, I'm second and then there's a whole train of cars of different shapes, sizes and colours behind" Harry Tincknell

"If you look at GTLM versus GT3, then GTLM is a lot more expensive and complicated," says Vanthoor. "If we go to the Spa 24 Hours with Team 75 [the Porsche-backed GT3 team owned by Timo Bernhard], then we take maybe 10 or 15 people. In Le Mans it's more like 75. In the RSR, if we want to move a button on the steering wheel, they will do it. We also develop our own tyres, while in GT3 everyone has the same thing. It's hard to compare. Yes, you're still racing a Porsche 911, but it's a completely different world."

Another major headache of allowing GT3 cars, even uprated ones that are capable of GTE laptimes, into Le Mans would be a massive surge of entries. There are at least a dozen manufacturers with active GT3 programmes, so how would you go about choosing which ones (and which of their customers) would be able to take part?

"The problem of racing with GT3 at Le Mans is that there are so many brands and so few places that it would be quite difficult for all of those to participate in Le Mans, because there are only 62 cars with the prototypes and the other categories," says Molina. "Some of them would only be able to have one car per brand, and it would be complicated."

Still, despite all the practical challenges, turning GT3 into a truly global platform in the same way LMDh promises to do so for prototypes is undeniably appealing. The cost and complexity of the GTE cars means it's not suited to playing such a role, and almost a decade on from the ruleset's introduction in 2011, it appears as if it has almost run its course.

It's an almost shocking turnaround compared to just two years ago, when the WEC was riding high with five manufacturers in GTE Pro and the class was being talked about as a potential solution to the sudden dearth of interest in the top LMP1 division.

PLUS: When GTE looked to be the WEC's saviour

"When you're in the moment, you don't know how good you've got it," reflects Harry Tincknell, who was part of the four-year Ford GT programme. "At the same time, you can't stand around and look at everyone else and say, 'this is amazing', or you'll be left behind. Sometimes it's only [after the fact] you realise how good it was. When you're in the moment you think it's going go on. Even the Ford programme, which was scheduled for four years, there was hope it would continue in some form or fashion [beyond 2019].

"I remember seeing that photo from the first lap of Le Mans last year, you have Nicki Thiim leading in the Aston, I'm second and then there's a whole train of cars of different shapes, sizes and colours behind. And for me personally to come through the sportscar ladder and race against guys like [Gianmaria] Bruni, [Antonio] Garcia, [Richard] Westbrook... obviously Andy [Priaulx] as well. They've been around for a long time but still at the top of their game, even if some of them are getting into their 40s. I think GTE allowed a lot of drivers to extend their careers at the highest level, so it would be a big hole to fill."

And so, while GTE may not quite be what it was even just a year ago, sportscar racing fans would be well-advised to savour the sight of three manufacturers and their all-professional driver line-ups doing battle in the world's quickest and most sophisticated GT cars in both the WEC and IMSA while they still can.