Let the Chase for the Sprint Cup begin

The 2012 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup features a number of changes compared to previous seasons. The alterations to what has become a successful system have had and will have a knock-on effect on what is to follow.

Firstly; two of the 12 eligible drivers have made their way in by virtue of their win tallies during the regular season (although the two drivers in question, Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin, lay in 11th and 12th spots in the points anyway after last weekend's Richmond race). Both drivers enter the 10-race playoff with 2000 points and inelgible for the three-point bonus that is awarded for each win to the 10 highest-placed drivers in the table at the end of the regular season. This particularly affects Keselowski, who is giving away nine points to his rivals as a result of his wildcard status.

Secondly; there have been some calendar changes. New Hampshire, which had traditionally opened the Chase in recent seasons, has been moved back a week with Chicagoland taking its place instead. Additionally, the series visit to Kansas will be its second of 2011 - the venue having secured an additional regular season slot this year in addition to its Chase berth. It's worth noting too that barely two months after teams tested on Phoenix's new surface - and complained of precious little grip - that this oval will stage one of the deciding races too.

Once again the biggest names in NASCAR are in contention for the title, led by five-time champion Jimmie Johnson, who looks like the obvious favourite with all the stats backing up his status. A rejuvenated Jeff Gordon enters the playoff with the greatest momentum of all, while a slightly more mature Kyle Busch starts the Chase from the lead for the second time in his career - remember how his chances crumbled to nothing three years ago?

Kevin Harvick and Carl Edwards seem to have hit top form again just in time, while Penske driver Keselowski has everyone guessing how much of a real threat for the title he can turn out to be given his impressive run over the past six weeks. Here, then, is how the Chase field stacks up - in points order - ahead of this weekend's Chicagoland race.

1. Kyle Busch
Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Points: 2012 (4 wins)
Average finish in last 10 races: 10.1
Average finish at chase tracks: 17.4

The younger of the Busch brothers has been in this position before; In 2008 his championship bid faltered during the first two weeks of the Chase, but now, three years older and wiser (although just as explosive at times) he has another shot at winning NASCAR's biggest prize - the only one missing from a trophy room that can already count among its contents 103 individual race wins from top-three series plus his Nationwide crown of 2009.

Reviewing his most recent finishes at the ten upcoming tracks, his numbers do not compare favorably with those of Johnson, Gordon or Harvick; Numbers that his Chase finishing average backs up. None of his four wins in 2011 have come at Chase tracks either, which is no coincidence. He is unquestionably Joe Gibbs Racing's trump card this year, but still needs to step up to the next level if he is to fight for the championship.

Only Harvick has won as many Cup races as Busch this season, while Busch has also led more laps - 1171 - than any of his rivals. Critically, he has also had more retirements than any of the other Chase contenders, and that's something he cannot afford during the coming weeks. With this in mind, the reliability of the Gibbs engines (which will not be built by the team next year) is a concern.

Kyle Busch says: "There's other programmes out there that have been together for many years, but certainly myself and [crew chief] Dave Rogers... This is our second full season together, so we're still developing a notebook; something to go back on and work towards and make ourselves better at these racetracks.

2. Kevin Harvick
Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet
Points: 2012 (4 wins)
Average finish in last 10 races: 14.7
Average finish at chase tracks: 12.7

Harvick has been to Victory Lane four times this season, more than in any of his previous Chase years and twice at tracks that he will visit for a second time during the next 10 weeks. Last weekend at Richmond he got the ultimate boost ahead of the playoff with his latest win, which came following a rather inconsistent run during which he slipped from the lead of the championship down to sixth.

Just over a week ago, he announced that his Kevin Harvick Inc Nationwide and Truck Series teams were to be shut down in order to let him focus more on his Cup duties. If ever there were an attempt to knock Johnson off his pedestal, this is it. He has proved this year that he can pull victories out of his hat any time and at every kind of track, but he needs to couple that with the consistency he showed last year where an impressive 5.8 finishing average in the Chase (Johnson's was 4.4) - was only good enough for third in the standings. That could be the size of the task he faces ahead of his fifth run at the title.

Kevin Harvick says: "There are a lot of cars that can win and a lot of cars that can be competitive. It's going to be who makes the least amount of mistakes and capitalises the most on the days that you are off."

3. Jeff Gordon
Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Points: 2009 (3 wins)
Average finish in last 10 races: 6.1
Average finish at chase tracks: 12.2

If the Chase were about bringing momentum into those decisive final 10 weekends of the season, then four-time champion Jeff Gordon would probably be about to finally put his arms around the Sprint Cup for the first time since the playoff system was implemented and a decade since his last title. Unfortunately, history proves it takes more than momentum to challenge Johnson, something Gordon doesn't need to be reminded of. Yet he looks in his best shape since 2007, when he was his team-mate's main opponent.

His new for 2011 crew chief Alan Gustafson looked after Mark Martin's championship challenge two years ago, as the veteran kept the reigning champion on his toes for a few weeks during the first half of the playoff. He has clearly developed great chemistry with his 40-year-old driver and both have risen to championship-calibre in a matter of months, scoring more points than any other combination in the 10 weeks leading up to the Chase. Significantly the third of his 2011 wins came at Atlanta, an intermediate like six of those in the Chase.

As for Gordon's stats at Chase tracks and events, his rank is second only second to his student's, so if anyone can make the most of Johnson slipping, it is the rejuvenated 'Golden boy'.

Jeff Gordon says: "There's not one track in these next 10 weeks, that scares me, because I think that we just really have done a great job dissecting down our issues and addressing them and making our cars better as we go to those tracks. You're going to have to be in the top 10 pretty much every weekend, and you're going to have to win races."

4. Matt Kenseth
Roush Fenway Racing Ford
Points: 2006 (2 wins)
Average finish in last 10 races: 11.0
Average finish at chase tracks: 15.1

Matt Kenseth doesn't make much noise. making it easy to forget that he's in the Chase and that in 2003 he was the Cup champion. He even finished a fine fifth last year, but how people many remember that?

Public perception does not take from his effectiveness as a racer though, and he is by far Jack Roush's most experienced driver. Take his two wins this year as an example: They were at two Chase tracks; Texas and Dover. In fact, his performances this season at the intermediate tracks - which dominate the Chase schedule - have been second to none as he has scored more points than anyone else at such venues in 2011.

When looking at his overall performances at the Chase tracks however, he still has some way to go to be on a par with the best. One of Kenseth's weaknesses has been qualifying, but he has shown great improvements recently in that department.

Matt Kenseth says: "I think if we look back, we've been running pretty good lately. If I look at the three weeks before that, we've been qualifying really well. I think I'm really good at that. We've been running up front and running up in the top five most of the day."

5. Carl Edwards
Roush Fenway Racing Ford
Points: 2003 (1 win)
Average finish in last 10 races: 14.0
Average finish at chase tracks: 14.1

At the start of the season Carl Edwards was the obviousl leader of the Roush train as the team's Fords appeared to be in a different league to the rest at intermediate tracks - thanks in no small part to the excellent FR9 engine installed in its Fusions. Obviously there was more to it than that, but as the season went on momentum seemed to shift away from Roush while Edwards' own future became the main topic of conversation.

That he confirmed last month that he will stay put for a few more years has shaken off the distraction and allowed him to get back to business, although the remnants could still affect driver and team heading into the chase.

Edwards has led of the standings longer than anyone else this year, but the trademark backflip victory celebration has been seen just once in points-paying races after his victory at Las Vegas in March (he did win the All-Star race at Charlotte too). Despite this, his tallies of top fives and top 10s are a match for Johnson's this year, and his recent upturn in form could be good news as he heads into the chase.

Carl Edwards says: "I think [within] our team there for a little while, we were kind of slowing down, and then we ran really well at Atlanta and last week we felt like a dominant car all night, a really fast car. So I'm excited. I feel like we can run with the guys who have been running like Brad [Keselowski] has been running the last few weeks."

6. Jimmie Johnson
Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Points: 2003 (1 win)
Average finish in last 10 races: 10.0
Average finish at chase tracks: 9.8

A single win at Talladega is the lowest victory tally that the five-time champion has carried into the Chase since 2004, which goes to show he hasn't been firing on quite so many cylinders this year as in seasons gone by - even if the competition at the sharp end of the grid has risen.

And yet, Johnson's consistency over the first 26 weeks of this season was second to none and his points total over that period was only second to Kyle Busch's, in spite of having only scored a quarter of the wins of his rival. Looking deeper into his 2011 numbers, his momentum is up there as usual as only two other drivers have had better finishing averages than his over the 10 races leading into the Chase.

Crucially, in previous years his regular season form has never been an indicatior of what was to come in the Chase, where he and his team - led by crew chief Chad Knaus - have traditionally risen to a new level. His stats show an unchallenged dominance of the series over the past few years, with an average finish of eighth in the 70 Chase races he's entered and 19 wins.

He also has the best finishing average at the 10 upcoming tracks, so it's hard to argue against his chances of making it six in a row. However, Johnson has become a little more feisty of late and his recent clashes - such as those with fellow Chase contender Kurt Busch - need to be avoided if he is to keep his streak going. It's fair to say that his rivals stand a chance, but only if he stumbles.

Jimmie Johnson says: "I'm a realist. I know at some point we're not going to be the champion... But I think that there is something within that that continues to make me hungry to succeed and also something within all of it that has helped me enjoy what has been going on. We've already beat the odds. I hope to continue that and carry that through this year's Chase regardless of where we finish."

7. Kurt Busch
Penske Racing Dodge
Points: 2003 (1 win)
Average finish in last 10 races: 15.5
Average finish at chase tracks: 16.8

None of the Chase contenders want to beat Johnson as much as Kurt Busch does. Their rivalry has had some heated moments, the latest coming last Saturday at Richmond where, despite a couple of clashes, he came strong to finish fifth. Anger seems to boost him somehow, as many times this year he has bounced back after ranting to his crew chief Steve Addington over the radio when the handling of his Dodge hasn't been to his liking.

Penske has had an edge over rival organisations since the late spring as its streak of four poles, four wins and strong finishes proves. Given his experience, Busch should be the logical leader within the outfit, but his team-mate Keselowski is clearly the one carrying the team's flag right now.

Kurt Busch says: "I think the way the Chase shapes up this year, we should have a good seven out of 10 tracks. The three I'm worried about are Martinsville, Talladega and the new Phoenix International Raceway. That's going to be a big wildcard out there. Right now there's a couple of teams that are better than us."

8. Ryan Newman
Stewart Haas Racing Chevrolet
Points: 2003 (1 win)
Average finish in last 10 races: 10.2
Average finish at chase tracks: 17.2

The driver nicknamed 'The Rocket' has been leading Stewart Haas Racing this season so far, winning for the outfit at New Hampshire in a dominant display where his team-mate and boss Tony Stewart finished second. His results at intermediate tracks have been among the best, but when looking specifically at his record at Chase venues, besides his win at New Hampshire, there's little else to suggest that they are among his best.

Ryan Newman says: "My best guess is that it's going to take a finishing average of at least seven or better in the final 10 races. We've been consistent as of late, but we need to step it up a few notches during the Chase. Avoiding mechanical issues and accidents to our car are vital if we want to win the championship."

9. Tony Stewart
Stewart Haas Racing Chevrolet
Points: 2000 (0 wins)
Average finish in last 10 races: 11.6
Average finish at chase tracks: 13.0

Tony Stewart has had a few off weeks leading up to the Chase and there was tension in his camp before he finally secured his place in the title race once again. Since 2008 he has not come this far into a season without a win, and it appears that his dual roles as driver and team owner are proving a straing on him this year - even more so since sporting director Bobby Hutchens left the team in June.

In its current state, Stewart Haas Racing may find it hard to be in the thick of the title battle, but then you can't count out a two-time champion, whose stats at the upcoming Chase tracks are only beaten by dynamic Hendrick duo Johnson and Gordon. Plus he drives almost the same equipment.

Tony Stewart says: "I think we're kind of the underdogs with the #14 car. I feel like Ryan's guys have done a great job this year and we're definitely pretty strong right now in my opinion. It's kind of nice for us I guess to a certain degree to be the underdogs going into it, and we've got nowhere else to go but up."

10. Dale Earnhardt Jr
Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Points: 2000 (0 wins)
Average finish in last 10 races: 16.9
Average finish at chase tracks: 16.9

Dale Earnhardt Jr's season has been intriguing. Following a shaky start at Daytona he started to pick his way through the rankings, eventually reaching third place in the points before hitting a summer slump where he fell all the way down to 10th and nearly missed out on the Chase altogether.

In the end, he just made it only for the second time since joining Hendrick Motorsports, where he has a new group working alongside him this season, led by Jeff Gordon's former crew chief Steve Letarte.

Believe it or not, Earnhardt Jr has the best average finish of all Chasers based on their most recent visits to the 10 playoff tracks. But that all happened during his early-season surge.

He may eventually get into that groove again, but above that he probably needs to prove that he can still win races, having not been to Victory Lane since a fuel-saving drive at Michigan more than three years ago.

Dale Earnhardt Jr says: "We had a pretty good run at it going the first 15 races, and for whatever reason we sort of fell off and forgot some things or over-engineered something. But we've been conservative on the motor and a couple other things the last several weeks to make sure we don't have any problems. We'll just see."

11. Brad Keselowski
Penske Racing Dodge
Points: 2000 (3 wins - wildcard)
Average finish in last 10 races: 20.1
Average finish at chase tracks: 9.0

You can't look at Brad Keselowski's past stats or even his season numbers to try to predict what he may be able to achieve in his maiden Chase. After all, the current Nationwide champion has just written the prologue of his Cup story, one that includes four wins already. The last three have come in the past 15 weeks and only Gordon has scored more points than him during the past 10 races.

Keselowski is full of confidence and determination, but he knows that it takes more than that to mount a serious championship challenge. We're still discovering his true potential and probably so is he, but chances are he could spring a surprise or two over the coming weeks.

Brad Keselowski says: "If we can find a little bit more speed, I feel like we can be a serious contender in the championship. We're doing a good job executing, I feel like we're out finishing what we've got for speed, and that's what good teams do. I hope we can go back and find a little bit more speed."

12. Denny Hamlin
Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Points: 2000 (1 win, wildcard)
Average finish in last 10 races:16.4
Average finish at chase tracks: 13.2

After being Johnson's main rival in 2010, Denny Hamlin finds himself at the opposite end of the Chase standings just before the green flag waves in the title race. Having switched to Toyota Racing Development power for the reminder of the season, he is somewhat of a test mule for Joe Gibbs Racing's programme looking into 2012, during which all its cars will be equipped with the engines. The move came as an attempt to neutralise reliability concerns, but obviously had its cost within the squad.

Hamlin can only get better in the coming 10 weeks without the pressure of leading the standings, but he just doesn't seem on the same level as last year when he gave Johnson a run for his money in the Chase; The chemistry within his group doesn't seem to be there.

Denny Hamlin says: "There's only one place to go from where we're at right now, and that's forward. We're very fortunate to be here, obviously, with the tough season that we've had and the ups and downs and the DNFs and whatnot. It's kind of a second lease on life for us and our season."