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By Tom Keeble
Autosport-Atlas Writer
With qualifying hit by rain and a messed-up grid, the Australian Grand Prix did not offer a realistic picture of the competitiveness of the teams, so several questions are still to be answered. This weekend's Malaysian Grand Prix will most likely solve that. Tom Keeble previews the race and rates the teams' chances of success ahead of the second round of the 2005 season
Analysis
The season opener at Australia somewhat confused by the weather-impacted qualifying session. That Renault delivered is certain, and Red Bull's quietly predicted step forward was evident, but quite what happened to some of the other teams and drivers is not so certain. Now the circus is going to Sepang with an imperfect picture of how the teams stack up against each other...
Track: This purpose built circuit is a tough challenge for cars and drivers alike. The lap is quite long, and provides some respite in the name of the four long straights. There are a combination of slow and long, fast corners, variations in camber and some considerable variations in racing line available. Tyre wear is high, and pitstop times are relatively long. The circuit requires almost maximum downforce, emphasising low drag and powerful engines, with temperatures that ensure a tough weekend ensuring engines and drivers alike are kept cool enough to function.
Tyres: It was at Melbourne last season that Bridgestone established they had eliminated their relative weakness at hot venues, by delivering Ferrari with a strongly competitive tyre for the weekend. Their performance in Australia illustrates that they are not giving up the challenge, so it is important for Michelin that they have restored the status quo at cooler circuits.
If the Melbourne pattern is repeated, then Bridgestone and Michelin should be very evenly matched - and both should have similar characteristics over the race distance; however, this is the first time that any of the teams will be able to run on these tyres under these circumstances, so this could turn out to be a tough weekend for one of the manufacturers if their simulations are off.
However, it is widely expected that the most important factor for all the teams will be correctly understanding the tyres; the emphasis on reducing wear is resulting in many teams struggling to work the tyres hard enough to run them at racing temperature: this in turn is very expensive in terms of both pace and the wear characteristics of the tyre, so expect to see more effort going in to setting up the cars for racing, rather than qualifying.
Weather: Prediction for Sepang is always difficult, particularly as the region is known for sudden tropical storms; however, the general outlook is for a partially cloudy weekend, with reasonable chance of thunderstorms on Saturday or Sunday. There is a strong chance of showers interrupting running on Friday. Temperatures are expected to reach 35 degrees every day.
Strategy: With overtaking expected to be possible, if not entirely trivial, the focus will shift more to qualifying with the right fuel loads than looking for positions on the grid. The big gains to be had from running at low fuel after another driver has stopped for more should result in some interesting second guessing and brinkmanship: having to stop a lap or two earlier than a close rival is going to cost places. High tyre wear could force some drivers down the three-stop road, but two should be expected for most, particularly as pitstops are quite expensive here. Single stopping is an option, but the penalty of running that extra fuel is only worth it if the driver is struggling to get racing heat into the tyres on a two-stop load.
Surprises: This is a circuit that allows drivers to make a difference, and two who have demonstrated that ability here in the past are Jenson Button and Michael Schumacher: either could have a weekend that belies the pace of their car.
Conclusions: If Ferrari are going to win races before the introduction of the F2005, then this is the most likely place for it to happen, based on Schumacher's affinity for the circuit and the all round strength of the F2004M. However, in order to do so, they are going to have to beat a rampant Renault team, and the uncertain, but capable, McLarens. Considering this is the first proper test of reliability for engines nearing the end of life under the two engine rule, a few retirements can be expected.
Team by Team
Ferrari
With Renault having such a strong Australian weekend, Rubens Barrichello's excellent drive through the field to finish on the podium seems to have been largely overlooked. With their Bridgestone tyres offering a wild card at every event, even racing the old F2004M, this is a team that cannot be ignored. Even without setting the fastest qualifying or racing laps, with strategist Ross Brawn on board and an excellent car, Ferrari can still win races.
Package: the F2004M is perhaps a little off the absolute pace of Renault and McLaren, but they have some advantages too. Using the old car gives a good idea on the baseline set-up required, which is important for this very technical track: the completeness of the package is expected to make it a strong contender. The engine seems to be working nicely - and whilst the impact of having to complete this race in high heat is yet to be seen, this is a package that has set standards for reliability that the other teams have been struggling to aspire to match.
Drivers: although Barrichello's weekend in Australia was excellent and he should go well enough in Sepang, whilst Michael Schumacher seemed off form, it is widely expected that the World Champion will be back to strength this weekend. The German always seems to go well here, and last season demonstrated this with a brutally quick qualifying and dominant race performance. As at any circuit where the driver can make a difference, it is impossible to rule him out of this one.
Objectives: podium finish
BAR
The controversy surrounding the withdrawal of both BARs from the Melbourne race (in order to allow them the option of changing engines) has really overlooked the reason for doing so: both cars were outside the points. When it came down to it, the Melbourne performance was simply below par for a team who are looking for race wins this season.
Package: the package seems as though it ought to have more potential than last season's, but an aerodynamic shortfall has put the team off the pace. New components coming through in testing should provide a boost, but whilst the long straights in Sepang ought to demonstrate the strength of the engine, the high speed corners will show up the aero weakness. If, as in Australia, there is trouble maintaining heat in the tyres, there is not going to be much change; however, overall, the team have to be expecting this showing to be an improvement on the Melbourne experience, though making up places against the strength of the other front runners is not going to be a speedy affair.
Drivers: Last season, Takuma Sato spent the weekend overdriving the car and was rewarded accordingly; whilst capable of being very quick, he doesn't seem to be right on top of the Sepang circuit yet, however, the last year alongside Jenson Button seems to have helped reduce this overdriving tendency, so there is every reason to believe he will have a far better weekend this year. That said, this is a circuit that Button always seems to have had an affinity for - though whether it particularly rewards his smooth style or he just gets on particularly well with it is arguable. Although BAR are looking set to round out the top five teams and struggle to score points, if there is going to be a shock result for the weekend, then don't be surprised if it turns out to be Button on the podium.
Objectives: both cars in the points; podium finish at a stretch.
Renault
A near perfect weekend in Australia has got Renault off to a nice start to the season, and clearly established them as the team in form. Whilst difficult to establish exactly how effectively the likes of McLaren or Ferrari could have challenged for the lead, neither driver put a foot wrong on race day, with Alonso fighting up to the podium from 13th. Although Malaysia has never been kind to the team, they are looking for a strong weekend here this time.
Package: the high speed corners will allow Renault to exercise the aerodynamic strength, but there are some question marks over the outright power developed by this engine, which could impact speed down the long straights: this is likely to compromise outright qualifying pace. However, the team have again produced a car that uses its tyres very well, which should emphasis the relative improvement of their pace compared against the competition as the race progresses.
Drivers: Having now won a race on pure merit, it will be interesting to see what difference it makes to Giancarlo Fisichella's confidence levels. Considering the boost that winning has offered other drivers in the past, there is every reason to believe that this should be another strong weekend for the Italian: this should give him a boost over Fernando Alonso, at least for now. Not that Alonso is expected to be anything other than quick in his own right. However, he'll have to qualify better than last year's 19th in order to stand any chance of winning. This car is capable of winning, provided they can see of the challenges of McLaren, or the Bridgestone-shod (and therefore unpredictable) Ferrari.
Objectives: winning - with both cars on the podium.
Williams
Following a disappointing outing in Australia, Williams have to be slightly non-plussed about their prospects. From the evidence, the new car is not quite on a par with McLaren and Renault, and could struggle to contain Ferrari or BAR if either is on a charge. Nevertheless, new parts are in the pipeline, and solid points finishes are expected until they arrive.
Package: although the aerodynamic package is not delivering quite as well as the team expected, the car benefits from a powerful engine and solid mechanical grip... the deficit to the leading teams is not large. This car should be well placed to take advantage of any reliability issues for cars in front.
Drivers: considering the pace of the cars though the weekend, Mark Webber's strong qualifying in Australia was a nice boost to the team. That he was not able to hold on through the race, whilst Heidfeld struggled to make up places, was not a surprise; however, the positive news was that both drivers looked capable of taking the fight to Ferrari, even if Renault and McLaren seem to have some advantage. Webber's second place from qualifying (in a Jaguar) last season makes him favourite to perform better of the two drivers at this circuit, possibly even capable of targeting a podium, though Heidfeld is no slouch here either.
Objectives: finish with both cars in the points. Podium is currently possible, but winning is a stretch.
McLaren
Despite an apparently dismal showing in Australia, there is little doubt that McLaren have actually produced a car that is capable of a decent turn of speed this year; certainly enough for them to be expecting podiums and challenging for wins until Ferrari's new car arrives. The Melbourne performance was frustrated by the weather-affected qualifying, and a stall at the start. Absolute pace was further compromised by deflectors falling off the cars, but, as illustrated by Raikkonen being bottled up by Schumacher, there is no doubt that it was capable of running with the front of the field.
Package: if McLaren's have returned to their old tradition of building fast but unreliable cars, then this race is going to give them the chance to show it. High temperatures will stress the engine to its limit, and whilst losing deflectors in Australia was inconvenient, in Sepang a repeat would have a bigger impact on handling and laptimes. However, this car is definitely quick. The engine appears to be playing in the same arena as the leading competition; the aerodynamic package is clearly in good shape: this circuit should suit the car well.
Drivers: both Raikkonen and Montoya have demonstrated excellent pace on previous visits to Malaysia, and there is little reason to believe that either will be off the pace this year; they should be fairly evenly matched, so choosing between them is not trivial. Both are in the peak of physical condition, so they should be capable of racing for the full duration, though any lapse in concentration that causes damage to the tyres will be punished...
Objectives: winning - with both cars on the podium.
Sauber
In Australia, Sauber's race was surprisingly dismal after Villeneuve's solid qualifying effort. The Canadian's fourth place was squandered off the line as a poor start and trouble getting heat into the tyres saw places falling off. In the event, Massa's pace on heavier fuel was considerably more impressive than shown by the ex-World Champion; whilst this could be a simple case of failing to work effectively with the Michelin tyres (this is the team's first season on them), it has raised an ugly spectre from the past - rumours are spreading that Villeneuve is past his sell by date.
Package: considering the exceptional reputation for reliability that Ferrari's engines enjoy, there is a strong expectation that Sauber should have a strong weekend in Sepang, as long as they can provide sufficient cooling for the power units. The car has solid aerodynamics, so the fast corners and long straights should work well for them. Although this will be a sterner test of the team's understanding of Michelin tyres, with a warm race under their belt, the improved experience will be important.
Drivers: Felipe Massa's Australian result did not reflect his pace, which could have been sufficient for a points finish if he had not been compelled to start from the back. After a solid weekend, the team are looking forward to seeing what he is capable of doing in Malaysia. Villeneuve's claim that his fitness is now back up to scratch will be tested by the tough race ahead; however, with his commitment to the sport being publicly questioned, a lot rides on his being able to get a solid race under his belt to dispel the rumours of his passing, before it undermines his season.
Objectives: qualify in the top ten; score points. Beat BAR.
Red Bull
Considering Red Bull's performance in Melbourne, where Coulthard spent much of the race in second place before losing out on a podium through the final pit stops, it will be interesting to see how the team meet the challenge of Malaysia - the circuit that saw them put Mark Webber on the front row in qualifying last year. Despite failing to match the pace of the front runners over the full distance, there is little doubt that this car is closer to the pace than expected.
Package: all told, the package has demonstrated itself a considerable step forward on last year's effort. Although benefiting from the wet qualifying, the race pace of the team was very solid, illustrating a pace that genuinely had the team earning two points paying finishes. However, the solid step forward from the engine means running it close to the limit of tolerance, so facing the extreme temperatures Sepang in the second half of the lifetime of the units could bring the team's first retirements, too.
Drivers: despite Christian Klien's solid performance in Australia, the light remains firmly on team leader David Coulthard, who had an excellent race, from blistering start through to his final stop. Whilst question marks remain over Coulthard's ability to do himself justice in single shot qualifying, the drivers have buoyant confidence and will be looking for another strong weekend.
Objectives: qualify in the top ten, score points. Beat Toyota!
Toyota
Following great fortunes with the rain and a strong performance in Australian qualifying, Jarno Trulli's race was far from spectacular as he paid the price for pushing too hard in the opening stint. However, whilst Trulli's tyres went off, Ralf Schumacher was putting together a fairly respectable set of laps from the back: without an extra stop to tighten his seatbelts, perhaps a points finish would have been possible. The upshot is, Toyota's performance in Australia raised some eyebrows, though they are not yet a threat outside the midfield.
Package: The long straights should help Toyota show off what strength the engine has, but the high speed corners will expose weaknesses in the aero package, whilst others will show up any issues with mechanical grip or balance. Cooling could be an issue, as the engines will face real stress from the heat during the second half of their lives. Anticipating an incremental improvement to the aerodynamics, the package could show well in Malaysia, but realistically, that probably means fighting Sauber for the final point.
Drivers: Although both Trulli and Schumacher have plenty of experience, Trulli could be expected to have an edge, as he tends to have a better weekend here. However, considering the punishment that the tyres should take from the race, and the way Trulli blistered his tyres in Melbourne, the story from the race could be different: certainly, Trulli is going to have to do a better job of looking after them if he doesn't want a repeat of the Australian race experience.
Objectives: head the midfield; score points.
Jordan
In Melbourne, the surprising conditions allowed Jordan to outperform in qualifying - especially showing the potential of Karthikeyan on a drying track. However, there is not getting away from the fact that the race performance was really not on a par with the midfield, and there has not been enough work on the car and drivers to change that for Malaysia.
Package: clearly, this year's car is more stable in wet weather than its predecessor. However, as more than one onlooker has observed, the handling doesn't improve noticeably as the track dries. Another weekend gives the team more time to test and understand the weaknesses of the revised car; if they can find resolution for any of them, then they stand to make up a lot of the gap to the midfield, but they are not really expected to challenge anyone.
Drivers: although Karthikeyan had a solid qualifying session in Australia, his race was not quite so solid: the car was not easy to drive, which did not help, and both drivers spent time off the circuit. Both should have a better idea of how to set up the car for a full race distance now. The biggest step forward the team are going to see from the package this season is going to come when the drivers can get the car balanced properly to last the race, without compromising qualifying.
Objectives: make a showing, beat Minardi, continue putting miles on the car and drivers.
Minardi
After the farce in Australia, Minardi may have cost themselves a portion of their traditional fan base, but clearly they are intent on being one of the more interesting teams off the track thus season, if they can't set the world alight on it. In Malaysia, there is no excuse for turning out with anything other than the 2005 specification car, though the limited running the team have had will clearly not improve their chances any. Considering the lack of performance objectives, there are few excuses for poor reliability from the car... though the drivers could have an interesting time at this technical circuit, particularly if it rains.
Objectives: complete race distance.
Flashback: 2004
Coming away from Melbourne, the paddock knew that Ferrari had put together a solid challenger. Bets for Malaysia hinged on Bridgestone's perceived weakness in the heat, though a wet race would probably not have been much fun for the Michelin runners either. In the event, fortunes were mixed, but it was not to be a day for toppling Ferrari from their throne.
Qualifying
After a dominant display in Melbourne, Ferrari were again expected to be tough to beat; however, the way in which Michael Schumacher blew away the competition in qualifying was comprehensive: Bridgestone's new tyres were far better than they had been the year before, whilst Schumacher was clearly in perfect form. His three-quarter second lead on the rest of the field was impressive.
For Jaguar, Webber had scored a strong second placing that caused some surprise: there were doubts cast about the fuel loads, but in the event the placing was representative of the car on new tyres and basically on merit. Barrichello took a rueful third for Ferrari, comfortably ahead of Montoya's Williams.
McLaren's Australian outing had been disappointing, so they brought some new aero components to Malaysia, and Raikkonen put the car fifth; overall, the beast was better to drive and a reasonable match for Williams at least. Button was a disappointed sixth after struggling to set up his BAR, whilst Ralf Schumacher was seventh for Williams.
Trulli's eighth was a creditable effort for Renault, with Coulthard a half second behind Raikkonen in ninth and da Matta rounding out the top ten for Toyota. Notable mentions go to Alonso and Sato for failing to set times in second qualifying after dropping their cars in the gravel, so they started at the back.
Race Highlights
Race day dawned ominously cloudy, but despite a quick shower before the race, it was dry - if not entirely loaded with grip, as Raikkonen could attest after a spin on the parade lap.
As the lights went out, Webber's excellent second place turned in to a nightmare when the software on his Jaguar turned his get-away to treacle, dropping him down to fifteenth place. Meanwhile, Barrichello, running as rear-guard to Schumacher at the front, ran wide on the second lap, allowing Montoya and Button to slide through. Button and Trulli battled for fifth behind for a couple of laps, until the BAR driver slipped through.
The parade started to spread out at the front, Schumacher pulling away from Montoya, Raikkonen, Barrichello and Button, though Trulli, Coulthard and Alonso were running close behind. Further back, Webber's day got worse after he battled on, eventually suffering a puncture when Ralf stuck his wing under the Jaguar; and after pitting for new tyres, he spun out.
The first round of pitstops were largely uneventful, except Montoya returning just behind Raikkonen, who he promptly passed, and Trulli made a couple of places by short fuelling.
The second round started early - lap 20 - when Trulli stopped, dropping from fourth to ninth, whilst Alonso passed Coulthard with a brave move around the outside in the first corner... before losing it again when both stopped together and McLaren put in a slicker performance. Raikkonen lost a place to Button, Barrichello regained the position lost to Trulli.
The final round of stops began on lap 38 with Coulthard; there were no changes in the front runners, though Raikkonen departed with a blown engine on lap 41. Montoya was unable to continue the charge he started in his third stint, so Schumacher came home a comfortable winner.
Point Paying Positions
The Malaysian Grand Prix is hosted at Sepang - a relatively new, purpose built enclave that has been on the calendar since it was completed in 1999. The weekend is normally punctuated by thunder storms. Traditionally, the circuit is tough on tyres, and this year will be more so under the one set per race rule. The requirement for a near-maximum downforce setup is also exaggerated by this year's aerodynamic restrictions.
Pos Driver Team-Engine
1. M.Schumacher Ferrari (B)
2. Montoya Williams-BMW (M)
3. Button BAR-Honda (M)
4. Barrichello Ferrari (B)
5. Trulli Renault (M)
6. Coulthard McLaren-Mercedes (M)
7. Alonso Renault (M)
8. Massa Sauber-Petronas (M)
Fastest Lap: Montoya (Williams-BMW), 1:34.223, lap 28
Classified: 16 from 20 starters
